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1. Rupture Propagation along Stepovers of Strike-Slip Faults: Effects of Initial Stress and Fault Geometry

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0120190233  

   Wang, Hui; Liu, Mian; Duan, Benchun; Cao, Jianling (April 2020, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America)

   null (Ed.)

   ABSTRACT Large earthquakes on strike-slip faults often rupture multiple fault segments by jumping over stepovers. Previous studies, based on field observations or numerical modeling with a homogeneous initial stress field, have suggested that stepovers more than ∼5  km wide would stop the propagation of rupture, but many exceptions have been observed in recent years. Here, we integrate a dynamic rupture model with a long-term fault stress model to explore the effects of background stress perturbation on rupture propagation across stepovers along strike-slip faults. Our long-term fault models simulate steady-state stress perturbation around stepovers. Considering such stress perturbation in dynamic rupture models leads to prediction of larger distance a dynamic rupture can jump over stepovers: over 15 km for a releasing stepover or 7 km for a restraining stepover, comparing with the 5 km limit in models with the same fault geometry and frictional property but assuming a homogeneous initial stress. The effect of steady-state stress perturbations is stronger in an overlapping stepover than in an underlapping stepover. The maximum jumping distance can reach 20 km in an overlapping releasing stepover with low-static frictional coefficients. These results are useful for estimating the maximum length of potential fault ruptures and assessing seismic hazard. 

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2. Spatio‐Temporal Clustering of Seismicity Enabled by Off‐Fault Plasticity

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097601  

   Mia, Md Shumon; Abdelmeguid, Mohamed; Elbanna, Ahmed E. (April 2022, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract While significant progress has been made in understanding earthquake source processes in linear elastic domains, the effect of more realistic rheologies including plasticity is poorly understood. Here, we simulate the sequence of earthquake and aseismic slip of a 2D antiplane rate‐and‐state fault embedded in a full‐space elastic‐plastic bulk. We show that off‐fault plasticity may lead to partial ruptures as well as temporal clustering of seismic events. Furthermore, the interaction of fault slip and off‐fault plasticity results in pockets of slip deficit. While the energy dissipated through plastic deformation remains a small fraction of the total energy budget, its impact on the source characteristics is disproportionally large through the redistribution of stresses and viscous relaxation. Our results suggest a new mechanism of dynamic heterogeneity in earthquake physics that may have important implications on earthquake size distribution and energy budget. 

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3. Dueling dynamics of low-angle normal fault rupture with splay faulting and off-fault damage

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37063-1  

   Biemiller, J.; Gabriel, A.-A.; Ulrich, T. (December 2023, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Despite a lack of modern large earthquakes on shallowly dipping normal faults, Holocene M w  > 7 low-angle normal fault (LANF; dip<30°) ruptures are preserved paleoseismically and inferred from historical earthquake and tsunami accounts. Even in well-recorded megathrust earthquakes, the effects of non-linear off-fault plasticity and dynamically reactivated splay faults on shallow deformation and surface displacements, and thus hazard, remain elusive. We develop data-constrained 3D dynamic rupture models of the active Mai’iu LANF that highlight how multiple dynamic shallow deformation mechanisms compete during large LANF earthquakes. We show that shallowly-dipping synthetic splays host more coseismic slip and limit shallow LANF rupture more than steeper antithetic splays. Inelastic hanging-wall yielding localizes into subplanar shear bands indicative of newly initiated splay faults, most prominently above LANFs with thick sedimentary basins. Dynamic splay faulting and sediment failure limit shallow LANF rupture, modulating coseismic subsidence patterns, near-shore slip velocities, and the seismic and tsunami hazards posed by LANF earthquakes. 

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4. On the Interplay Between Distributed Bulk Plasticity and Local Fault Slip in Evolving Fault Zone Complexity

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL108060  

   Abdelmeguid, Mohamed; Mia, Md_Shumon; Elbanna, Ahmed (July 2024, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract We numerically investigate the role of plastic strain accumulation on the mechanical response of a planar strike‐slip fault. Our models show that fault‐zone strength significantly impacts the ensuing sequence of earthquakes. Weaker fault zones accumulating more plastic strain promote more complexity in the seismicity pattern through aperiodic earthquake occurrences and intermittent episodes of rupture and arrest. However, if the fault zone strength is high enough, the overall earthquake sequence is characterized by periodic fault‐spanning events. We find that both the fault normal stress and the fault geometric profile evolve throughout the earthquake sequence, suggesting a self‐roughening mechanism. Despite the significant impact of plasticity on the fault response, the width of the plastically deforming region in the fault zone is small compared to the fault length. Our results suggest a rich behavior in dynamically evolving fault zones and support the need for further high‐resolution studies of the highly non‐linear near‐fault region. 

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5. Dynamic Rupture Models, Fault Interaction and Ground Motion Simulations for the Segmented Húsavík‐Flatey Fault Zone, Northern Iceland

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB025886  

   Li, Bo; Gabriel, Alice‐Agnes; Ulrich, Thomas; Abril, Claudia; Halldorsson, Benedikt (June 2023, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth)

   Abstract The Húsavík‐Flatey Fault Zone (HFFZ) is the largest strike‐slip fault in Iceland and poses a high seismic risk to coastal communities. To investigate physics‐based constraints on earthquake hazards, we construct three fault system models of varying geometric complexity and model 79 3‐D multi‐fault dynamic rupture scenarios in the HFFZ. By assuming a simple regional prestress and varying hypocenter locations, we analyze the rupture dynamics, fault interactions, and the associated ground motions up to 2.5 Hz. All models account for regional seismotectonics, topo‐bathymetry, 3‐D subsurface velocity, viscoelastic attenuation, and off‐fault plasticity, and we explore the effect of fault roughness. The rupture scenarios obey earthquake scaling relations and predict magnitudes comparable to those of historical events. We show how fault system geometry and segmentation, hypocenter location, and prestress can affect the potential for rupture cascading, leading to varying slip distributions across different portions of the fault system. Our earthquake scenarios yield spatially heterogeneous near‐field ground motions modulated by geometric complexities, topography, and rupture directivity, particularly in the near‐field. The average ground motion attenuation characteristics of dynamic rupture scenarios of comparable magnitudes and mean stress drop are independent of variations in source complexity, magnitude‐consistent and in good agreement with the latest regional empirical ground motion models. However, physics‐based ground motion variability changes considerably with fault‐distance and increases for unilateral compared to bilateral ruptures. Systematic variations in physics‐based near‐fault ground motions provide important insights into the mechanics and potential earthquake hazard of large strike‐slip fault systems, such as the HFFZ. 

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