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Abstract The 21st century evapotranspiration (ET) trends over the continental U.S. are assessed using innovative, energy‐based principles. Annual ET is projected to increase with high confidence at the rate of 20 mm for every 1℃ of rise in near‐surface air temperature, or 0.45 or 0.98 mm/year/year, depending on the emission scenario. The ET trajectory is dominated (58%) by the increase of land‐surface net radiative energy. An enhancement of the fraction of energy taken up by ET becomes a more important controller (53%) in late 21st century, under the high emission scenario. This increase is explained by the “tug of war” between atmospheric vapor demand and land‐surface ability to supply water. An assessment of future water availability (precipitation minus ET) shows no significant changes at the continental scale. This outcome nevertheless hides strong spatial variability, emphasizing the role of ET in shaping the distribution of water availability among human populations. 

Abstract. Isoprene emissions are a key component in biosphere–atmosphere interactions, and the most significant global source is the Amazonrainforest. However, intra- and interannual variations in biological and environmental factors that regulate isoprene emission from Amazonia arenot well understood and, thereby, are poorly represented in models. Here, with datasets covering several years of measurements at the Amazon Tall TowerObservatory (ATTO) in central Amazonia, Brazil, we (1) quantified canopy profiles of isoprene mixing ratios across seasons of normal and anomalousyears and related them to the main drivers of isoprene emission – solar radiation, temperature, and leaf phenology; (2) evaluated the effect ofleaf age on the magnitude of the isoprene emission factor (Es) from different tree species and scaled up to canopy with intra- andinterannual leaf age distribution derived by a phenocam; and (3) adapted the leaf age algorithm from the Model of Emissions of Gasesand Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) with observed changes in Esacross leaf ages. Our results showed that the variability in isoprene mixing ratios was higher between seasons (max during the dry-to-wettransition seasons) than between years, with values from the extreme 2015 El Niño year not significantly higher than in normal years. Inaddition, model runs considering in situ observations of canopy Es and the modification on the leaf age algorithm with leaf-levelobservations of Es presented considerable improvements in the simulated isoprene flux. This shows that MEGAN estimates of isopreneemission can be improved when biological processes are mechanistically incorporated into the model. 

Both plant physiology and atmospheric chemistry are substantially altered by the emission of volatile isoprenoids (VI), such as isoprene and monoterpenes, from plant leaves. Yet, since gaining scientific attention in the 1950’s, empirical research on leaf VI has been largely confined to laboratory experiments and atmospheric observations. Here, we introduce a new field instrument designed to bridge the scales from leaf to atmosphere, by enabling precision VI detection in real time from plants in their natural ecological setting. With a field campaign in the Brazilian Amazon, we reveal an unexpected distribution of leaf emission capacities (EC) across the vertical axis of the forest canopy, with EC peaking in the mid-canopy instead of the sun-exposed canopy surface, and moderately high emissions occurring in understory specialist species. Compared to the simple interpretation that VI protect leaves from heat stress at the hot canopy surface, our results encourage a more nuanced view of the adaptive role of VI in plants. We infer that forest emissions to the atmosphere depend on the dynamic microenvironments imposed by canopy structure, and not simply on canopy surface conditions. We provide a new emissions inventory from 52 tropical tree species, revealing moderate consistency in EC within taxonomic groups. We highlight priorities in leaf volatiles research that require field-portable detection systems. Our self-contained, portable instrument provides real-time detection and live measurement feedback with precision and detection limits better than 0.5 nmol VI m –2 leaf s –1 . We call the instrument ‘PORCO’ based on the gas detection method: photoionization of organic compounds. We provide a thorough validation of PORCO and demonstrate its capacity to detect ecologically driven variation in leaf emission rates and thus accelerate a nascent field of science: the ecology and ecophysiology of plant volatiles. 

Plant ecophysiological trade-offs between different strategies for tolerating stresses are widely theorized to shape forest functional diversity and vulnerability to climate change. However, trade-offs between hydraulic and stomatal regulation during natural droughts remain under-studied, especially in tropical forests. We investigated eleven mature forest canopy trees in central Amazonia during the strong 2015 El Niño. We found greater xylem embolism resistance (P50 = − 3.3 ± 0.8 MPa) and hydraulic safety margin (HSM = 2.12 ± 0.57 MPa) than previously observed in more precipitation-seasonal rainforests of eastern Amazonia and central America. We also discovered that taller trees exhibited lower embolism resistance and greater stomatal sensitivity, a height-structured trade-off between hydraulic resistance and active stomatal regulation. Such active regulation of tree water status, triggered by the onset of stem embolism, acted as a feedback to avoid further increases in embolism, and also explained declines in photosynthesis and transpiration. These results suggest that canopy trees exhibit a conservative hydraulic strategy to endure drought, with trade-offs between investment in xylem to reduce vulnerability to hydraulic failure, and active stomatal regulation to protect against low water potentials. These findings improve our understanding of strategies in tropical forest canopies and contribute to more accurate prediction of drought responses. 

Scaling from individuals or species to ecosystems is a fundamental challenge of modern ecology and understanding tropical forest response to drought is a key challenge of predicting responses to global climate change. We here synthesize our developing understanding of these twin challenges by examining individual and ecosystem responses to the 2015 El Niño drought at two sites in the central Amazon of Brazil, near Manaus and Santarem, which span a precipitation gradient from moderate (Manaus) to long (Santarem) dry seasons. We will focus on how ecosystem water and carbon cycling, measured by eddy flux towers, emerges from individual trait-based responses, including photosynthetic responses of individual leaves, and water cycle responses in terms of stomatal conductance and hydraulic xylem embolism resistance. We found the Santarem forest (with long dry seasons) responded strongly to drought: sensible heat values significantly increased and evapotranspiration decreased. Consistent with this, we also observed reductions in photosynthetic activity and ecosystem respiration, showing levels of stress not seen in the nearly two decades since measurements started at this site. Forests at the Manaus site showed significant, however, less consistent reductions in water and carbon exchange and a more pronounced water deficit. We report an apparent community level forest composition selecting for assemblies of traits and taxa manifest of higher drought tolerance at Santarem, compared to the Manaus forest (short dry seasons) and other forest sites across Amazonia. These results suggest that we may be able to use community trait compositions (as selected by past climate conditions) and environmental threshold values (e.g. cumulative rainfall, atmospheric moisture and radiation) as to help forecast ecosystem responses to future climate change.