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Abstract The 21st century evapotranspiration (ET) trends over the continental U.S. are assessed using innovative, energy‐based principles. Annual ET is projected to increase with high confidence at the rate of 20 mm for every 1℃ of rise in near‐surface air temperature, or 0.45 or 0.98 mm/year/year, depending on the emission scenario. The ET trajectory is dominated (58%) by the increase of land‐surface net radiative energy. An enhancement of the fraction of energy taken up by ET becomes a more important controller (53%) in late 21st century, under the high emission scenario. This increase is explained by the “tug of war” between atmospheric vapor demand and land‐surface ability to supply water. An assessment of future water availability (precipitation minus ET) shows no significant changes at the continental scale. This outcome nevertheless hides strong spatial variability, emphasizing the role of ET in shaping the distribution of water availability among human populations. 

Abstract The earth's hydroclimate is continuing to change, and the corresponding impacts on water resource space‐time distribution need to be understood to mitigate their socioeconomic consequences. A variety of ecosystem services, transport processes, and human activities are synced with thetimingof peak annual runoff. To understand the influence of changing hydroclimate on peak runoff dates across the continental United States, we downscaled outputs of 10 Global Circulation Models for different future scenarios. Our results quantify robust spatial patterns of both negative (up to 3–5 weeks) and positive (up to 2–4 weeks) shifts in the dates of peak annual runoff occurrence by the end of this century. In snowmelt‐dominated areas, annual maxima are projected to shift to earlier dates due to the corresponding changes in snow accumulation timing. For regions in which the occurrence of springtime extreme soil wetness shifts to later time, we find that peak annual runoff is also projected to be delayed. These patterns of runoff timing change tend to be more pronounced for projections of higher greenhouse concentration in the future. 

Abstract Energy budget of Amazonian forests has a large influence on regional and global climate, but relevant data are scarce. A novel energy partition method based on the maximum entropy production (MEP) theory is applied to simulate evapotranspiration in Amazonia. Using site‐level eddy flux data, the MEP method shows high skill at the hourly, daily, and monthly scales. Consistent performance under different levels of land surface dryness is revealed, hinting that drought signal is appropriately resolved. The site‐level MEP‐based estimates outperform the estimates of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer evapotranspiration product, which is commonly used for large‐scale assessments. At the Amazon basin scale, the two series yield similar averages but exhibit spatial differences. The parameter parsimony and demonstrated skill of the MEP method make it an attractive approach for environments with diverse strategies of water flux control. 

Summary Seasonal dynamics in the vertical distribution of leaf area index (LAI) may impact the seasonality of forest productivity in Amazonian forests. However, until recently, fine‐scale observations critical to revealing ecological mechanisms underlying these changes have been lacking.To investigate fine‐scale variation in leaf area with seasonality and drought we conducted monthly ground‐based LiDAR surveys over 4 yr at an Amazon forest site. We analysed temporal changes in vertically structuredLAIalong axes of both canopy height and light environments.Upper canopyLAIincreased during the dry season, whereas lower canopyLAIdecreased. The low canopy decrease was driven by highly illuminated leaves of smaller trees in gaps. By contrast, understoryLAIincreased concurrently with the upper canopy. Hence, tree phenological strategies were stratified by height and light environments. Trends were amplified during a 2015–2016 severe El Niño drought.Leaf area low in the canopy exhibited behaviour consistent with water limitation. Leaf loss from short trees in high light during drought may be associated with strategies to tolerate limited access to deep soil water and stressful leaf environments. Vertically and environmentally structured phenological processes suggest a critical role of canopy structural heterogeneity in seasonal changes in Amazon ecosystem function. 

Abstract. Isoprene emissions are a key component in biosphere–atmosphere interactions, and the most significant global source is the Amazonrainforest. However, intra- and interannual variations in biological and environmental factors that regulate isoprene emission from Amazonia arenot well understood and, thereby, are poorly represented in models. Here, with datasets covering several years of measurements at the Amazon Tall TowerObservatory (ATTO) in central Amazonia, Brazil, we (1) quantified canopy profiles of isoprene mixing ratios across seasons of normal and anomalousyears and related them to the main drivers of isoprene emission – solar radiation, temperature, and leaf phenology; (2) evaluated the effect ofleaf age on the magnitude of the isoprene emission factor (Es) from different tree species and scaled up to canopy with intra- andinterannual leaf age distribution derived by a phenocam; and (3) adapted the leaf age algorithm from the Model of Emissions of Gasesand Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) with observed changes in Esacross leaf ages. Our results showed that the variability in isoprene mixing ratios was higher between seasons (max during the dry-to-wettransition seasons) than between years, with values from the extreme 2015 El Niño year not significantly higher than in normal years. Inaddition, model runs considering in situ observations of canopy Es and the modification on the leaf age algorithm with leaf-levelobservations of Es presented considerable improvements in the simulated isoprene flux. This shows that MEGAN estimates of isopreneemission can be improved when biological processes are mechanistically incorporated into the model. 

Both plant physiology and atmospheric chemistry are substantially altered by the emission of volatile isoprenoids (VI), such as isoprene and monoterpenes, from plant leaves. Yet, since gaining scientific attention in the 1950’s, empirical research on leaf VI has been largely confined to laboratory experiments and atmospheric observations. Here, we introduce a new field instrument designed to bridge the scales from leaf to atmosphere, by enabling precision VI detection in real time from plants in their natural ecological setting. With a field campaign in the Brazilian Amazon, we reveal an unexpected distribution of leaf emission capacities (EC) across the vertical axis of the forest canopy, with EC peaking in the mid-canopy instead of the sun-exposed canopy surface, and moderately high emissions occurring in understory specialist species. Compared to the simple interpretation that VI protect leaves from heat stress at the hot canopy surface, our results encourage a more nuanced view of the adaptive role of VI in plants. We infer that forest emissions to the atmosphere depend on the dynamic microenvironments imposed by canopy structure, and not simply on canopy surface conditions. We provide a new emissions inventory from 52 tropical tree species, revealing moderate consistency in EC within taxonomic groups. We highlight priorities in leaf volatiles research that require field-portable detection systems. Our self-contained, portable instrument provides real-time detection and live measurement feedback with precision and detection limits better than 0.5 nmol VI m –2 leaf s –1 . We call the instrument ‘PORCO’ based on the gas detection method: photoionization of organic compounds. We provide a thorough validation of PORCO and demonstrate its capacity to detect ecologically driven variation in leaf emission rates and thus accelerate a nascent field of science: the ecology and ecophysiology of plant volatiles. 

Plant ecophysiological trade-offs between different strategies for tolerating stresses are widely theorized to shape forest functional diversity and vulnerability to climate change. However, trade-offs between hydraulic and stomatal regulation during natural droughts remain under-studied, especially in tropical forests. We investigated eleven mature forest canopy trees in central Amazonia during the strong 2015 El Niño. We found greater xylem embolism resistance (P50 = − 3.3 ± 0.8 MPa) and hydraulic safety margin (HSM = 2.12 ± 0.57 MPa) than previously observed in more precipitation-seasonal rainforests of eastern Amazonia and central America. We also discovered that taller trees exhibited lower embolism resistance and greater stomatal sensitivity, a height-structured trade-off between hydraulic resistance and active stomatal regulation. Such active regulation of tree water status, triggered by the onset of stem embolism, acted as a feedback to avoid further increases in embolism, and also explained declines in photosynthesis and transpiration. These results suggest that canopy trees exhibit a conservative hydraulic strategy to endure drought, with trade-offs between investment in xylem to reduce vulnerability to hydraulic failure, and active stomatal regulation to protect against low water potentials. These findings improve our understanding of strategies in tropical forest canopies and contribute to more accurate prediction of drought responses.