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Abstract Unabated 21st-century climate change will accelerate Arctic-Subarctic permafrost thaw which can intensify microbial degradation of carbon-rich soils, methane emissions, and global warming. The impact of permafrost thaw on future Arctic-Subarctic wildfires and the associated release of greenhouse gases and aerosols is less well understood. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the effect of future permafrost thaw on land surface processes in the Arctic-Subarctic region using the CESM2 large ensemble forced by the SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Analyzing 50 greenhouse warming simulations, which capture the coupling between permafrost, hydrology, and atmosphere, we find that projected rapid permafrost thaw leads to massive soil drying, surface warming, and reduction of relative humidity over the Arctic-Subarctic region. These combined processes lead to nonlinear late-21st-century regime shifts in the coupled soil-hydrology system and rapid intensification of wildfires in western Siberia and Canada.
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Energy Surplus and an Atmosphere‐Land‐Surface “Tug of War” Control Future Evapotranspiration
Abstract The 21st century evapotranspiration (ET) trends over the continental U.S. are assessed using innovative, energy‐based principles. Annual ET is projected to increase with high confidence at the rate of 20 mm for every 1℃ of rise in near‐surface air temperature, or 0.45 or 0.98 mm/year/year, depending on the emission scenario. The ET trajectory is dominated (58%) by the increase of land‐surface net radiative energy. An enhancement of the fraction of energy taken up by ET becomes a more important controller (53%) in late 21st century, under the high emission scenario. This increase is explained by the “tug of war” between atmospheric vapor demand and land‐surface ability to supply water. An assessment of future water availability (precipitation minus ET) shows no significant changes at the continental scale. This outcome nevertheless hides strong spatial variability, emphasizing the role of ET in shaping the distribution of water availability among human populations.
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- PAR ID:
- 10441535
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 50
- Issue:
- 15
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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