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Understanding the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is essential for better predictions of our changing climate. Here we present an updated time series (August 2014 to June 2020) from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program. The 6-year time series allows us to observe the seasonality of the subpolar overturning and meridional heat and freshwater transports. The overturning peaks in late spring and reaches a minimum in early winter, with a peak-to-trough range of 9.0 Sv. The overturning seasonal timing can be explained by winter transformation and the export of dense water, modulated by a seasonally varying Ekman transport. Furthermore, over 55% of the total meridional freshwater transport variability can be explained by its seasonality, largely owing to overturning dynamics. Our results provide the first observational analysis of seasonality in the subpolar North Atlantic overturning and highlight its important contribution to the total overturning variability observed to date.

 

Rapid ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet since 1992 is due in equal parts to increased surface melting and accelerated ice flow. The latter is conventionally attributed to ocean warming, which has enhanced submarine melting of the fronts of Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers. Yet, through the release of ice sheet surface meltwater into the ocean, which excites near-glacier ocean circulation and in turn the transfer of heat from ocean to ice, a warming atmosphere can increase submarine melting even in the absence of ocean warming. The relative importance of atmospheric and oceanic warming in driving increased submarine melting has, however, not been quantified. Here, we reconstruct the rate of submarine melting at Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers from 1979 to 2018 and estimate the resulting dynamic mass loss. We show that in south Greenland, variability in submarine melting was indeed governed by the ocean, but, in contrast, the atmosphere dominated in the northwest. At the ice sheet scale, the atmosphere plays a first-order role in controlling submarine melting and the subsequent dynamic mass loss. Our results challenge the attribution of dynamic mass loss to ocean warming alone and show that a warming atmosphere has amplified the impact of the ocean on the Greenland ice sheet.

 

The Subpolar North Atlantic is prone to recurrent extreme freshening events called Great Salinity Anomalies (GSAs). Here, we combine hydrographic ocean analyses and moored observations to document the arrival, spreading, and impacts of the most recent GSA in the Irminger Sea. This GSA is associated with a rapid freshening of the upper Irminger Sea between 2015 and 2020, culminating in annually averaged salinities as low as the freshest years of the 1990s and possibly since 1960. Upon the GSA propagation into the Irminger Sea over the Reykjanes Ridge, the boundary currents rapidly advected its signal around the basin within months while fresher waters slowly spread and accumulated into the interior. The anomalies in the interior freshened waters produced by deep convection during the 2017–2018 winter and actively contributed to the suppression of deep convection in the following two winters.

 

Abstract Freshwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet is routed to the ocean through narrow fjords along the coastline where it impacts ecosystems both within the fjord and on the continental shelf, regional circulation, and potentially the global overturning circulation. However, the timing of freshwater export is sensitive to the residence time of waters within glacial fjords. Here, we present evidence of seasonal freshwater storage in a tidewater glacial fjord using hydrographic and velocity data collected over 10 days during the summers of 2012 and 2013 in Saqqarleq (SQ), a midsize fjord in west Greenland. The data revealed a rapid freshening trend of −0.05 ± 0.01 and −0.04 ± 0.01 g kg −1 day −1 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, within the intermediate layer of the fjord (15–100 m) less than 2.5 km from the glacier terminus. The freshening trend is driven, in part, by the downward mixing of outflowing glacially modified water near the surface and increasingly stratifies the fjord from the surface downward over the summer melt season. We construct a box model that recreates the first-order dynamics of the fjord and describes freshwater storage as a balance between friction and density-driven exchange outside the fjord. The model can be used to diagnose the time scale for this balance to be reached, and for SQ we find a month lag between subglacial meltwater discharge and net freshwater export. These results indicate a fjord-induced delay in freshwater export to the ocean that should be represented in large-scale models seeking to understand the impact of Greenland freshwater on the regional climate system. 

Abstract Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which have the potential to drive societally-important climate impacts, have traditionally been linked to the strength of deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic. Yet there is neither clear observational evidence nor agreement among models about how changes in deep water formation influence overturning. Here, we use data from a trans-basin mooring array (OSNAP—Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) to show that winter convection during 2014–2018 in the interior basin had minimal impact on density changes in the deep western boundary currents in the subpolar basins. Contrary to previous modeling studies, we find no discernable relationship between western boundary changes and subpolar overturning variability over the observational time scales. Our results require a reconsideration of the notion of deep western boundary changes representing overturning characteristics, with implications for constraining the source of overturning variability within and downstream of the subpolar region. 

Abstract The boundary current system in the Labrador Sea plays an integral role in modulating convection in the interior basin. Four years of mooring data from the eastern Labrador Sea reveal persistent mesoscale variability in the West Greenland boundary current. Between 2014 and 2018, 197 mid-depth intensified cyclones were identified that passed the array near the 2000 m isobath. In this study, we quantify these features and show that they are the downstream manifestation of Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) cyclones. A composite cyclone is constructed revealing an average radius of 9 km, maximum azimuthal speed of 24 cm/s, and a core propagation velocity of 27 cm/s. The core propagation velocity is significantly smaller than upstream near Denmark Strait, allowing them to trap more water. The cyclones transport a 200-m thick lens of dense water at the bottom of the water column, and increase the transport of DSOW in the West Greenland boundary current by 17% relative to the background flow. Only a portion of the features generated at Denmark Strait make it to the Labrador Sea, implying that the remainder are shed into the interior Irminger Sea, are retroflected at Cape Farewell, or dissipate. A synoptic shipboard survey east of Cape Farewell, conducted in summer 2020, captured two of these features which shed further light on their structure and timing. This is the first time DSOW cyclones have been observed in the Labrador Sea—a discovery that could have important implications for interior stratification. 

Abstract Fresh Arctic waters flowing into the Atlantic are thought to have two primary fates. They may be mixed into the deep ocean as part of the overturning circulation, or flow alongside regions of deep water formation without impacting overturning. Climate models suggest that as increasing amounts of freshwater enter the Atlantic, the overturning circulation will be disrupted, yet we lack an understanding of how much freshwater is mixed into the overturning circulation’s deep limb in the present day. To constrain these freshwater pathways, we build steady-state volume, salt, and heat budgets east of Greenland that are initialized with observations and closed using inverse methods. Freshwater sources are split into oceanic Polar Waters from the Arctic and surface freshwater fluxes, which include net precipitation, runoff, and ice melt, to examine how they imprint the circulation differently. We find that 65 mSv (1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s −1 ) of the total 110 mSv of surface freshwater fluxes that enter our domain participate in the overturning circulation, as do 0.6 Sv of the total 1.2 Sv of Polar Waters that flow through Fram Strait. Based on these results, we hypothesize that the overturning circulation is more sensitive to future changes in Arctic freshwater outflow and precipitation, while Greenland runoff and iceberg melt are more likely to stay along the coast of Greenland. 

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.