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The fossilized birth–death (FBD) process provides an ideal model for inferring phylogenies from both extant and fossil taxa. Using this approach, fossils are directly integrated into the tree, leading to a statistically coherent prior on divergence times. Since fossils are typically not associated with molecular sequences, additional information is required to place fossils in the tree. We use simulations to evaluate two different approaches to handling fossil placement in FBD analyses: using topological constraints, where the user specifies monophyletic clades based on established taxonomy, or using total‐evidence analyses, which use a morphological data matrix in addition to the molecular alignment. We also explore how rate variation in fossil recovery or diversification rates impacts these approaches. We find that the extant topology is well recovered under all methods of fossil placement. Divergence times are similarly well recovered across all methods, with the exception of constraints which contain errors. We see similar patterns in datasets which include rate variation, however, relative errors in extant divergence times increase when more variation is included in the dataset, for all approaches using topological constraints, and particularly for constraints with errors. Finally, we show that trees recovered under the FBD model are more accurate than those estimated using non‐time calibrated inference. Overall, we show that both fossil placement approaches are reliable even when including uncertainty. Our results underscore the importance of core taxonomic research, including morphological data collection and species descriptions, irrespective of the approach to handling phylogenetic uncertainty using the FBD process.

 

Recent fossil discoveries from New Zealand have revealed a remarkably diverse assemblage of Paleocene stem group penguins. Here, we add to this growing record by describing nine new penguin specimens from the late Paleocene (upper Teurian local stage; 55.5–59.5 Ma) Moeraki Formation of the South Island, New Zealand. The largest specimen is assigned to a new species,Kumimanu fordycein. sp., which may have been the largest penguin ever to have lived. Allometric regressions based on humerus length and humerus proximal width of extant penguins yield mean estimates of a live body mass in the range of 148.0 kg (95% CI: 132.5 kg–165.3 kg) and 159.7 kg (95% CI: 142.6 kg–178.8 kg), respectively, forKumimanu fordycei. A second new species,Petradyptes stonehousein. gen. n. sp., is represented by five specimens and was slightly larger than the extant emperor penguinAptenodytes forsteri. Two small humeri represent an additional smaller unnamed penguin species. Parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses recoverKumimanuandPetradyptescrownward of the early Paleocene mainland NZ taxaWaimanuandMuriwaimanu, but stemward of the Chatham Island taxonKupoupou. These analyses differ, however, in the placement of these two taxa relative toSequiwaimanu,Crossvallia, andKaiika. The massive size and placement ofKumimanu fordyceiclose to the root of the penguin tree provide additional support for a scenario in which penguins reached the upper limit of sphenisciform body size very early in their evolutionary history, while still retaining numerous plesiomorphic features of the flipper.

UUID:https://zoobank.org/15b1d5b2-a5a0-4aa5-ba0a-8ef3b8461730

 

Bayesian total-evidence approaches under the fossilized birth-death model enable biologists to combine fossil and extant data while accounting for uncertainty in the ages of fossil specimens, in an integrative phylogenetic analysis. Fossil age uncertainty is a key feature of the fossil record as many empirical data sets may contain a mix of precisely dated and poorly dated fossil specimens or deposits. In this study, we explore whether reliable age estimates for fossil specimens can be obtained from Bayesian total-evidence phylogenetic analyses under the fossilized birth-death model. Through simulations based on the example of the Baltic amber deposit, we show that estimates of fossil ages obtained through such an analysis are accurate, particularly when the proportion of poorly dated specimens remains low and the majority of fossil specimens have precise dates. We confirm our results using an empirical data set of living and fossil penguins by artificially increasing the age uncertainty around some fossil specimens and showing that the resulting age estimates overlap with the recorded age ranges. Our results are applicable to many empirical data sets where classical methods of establishing fossil ages have failed, such as the Baltic amber and the Gobi Desert deposits. [Bayesian phylogenetic inference; fossil age estimates; fossilized birth-death; Lagerstätte; total-evidence.]

 

Myriad branches in the tree of life are intertwined through ecological relationships. Biologists have long hypothesized that intimate symbioses between lineages can influence diversification patterns to the extent that it leaves a topological imprint on the phylogenetic trees of interacting clades. Over the past few decades, cophylogenetic methods development has provided a toolkit for identifying such histories of codiversification, yet it is often difficult to determine which tools best suit the task at hand. In this review, we organize currently available cophylogenetic methods into three categories—pattern-based statistics, event-scoring methods, and more recently developed generative model–based methods—and discuss their assumptions and appropriateness for different types of cophylogenetic questions. We classify cophylogenetic systems based on their biological properties to provide a framework for empiricists investigating the macroevolution of symbioses. In addition, we provide recommendations for the next generation of cophylogenetic models that we hope will facilitate further methods development. 

No abstract available. 

Abstract Simulations are playing an increasingly important role in paleobiology. When designing a simulation study, many decisions have to be made and common challenges will be encountered along the way. Here, we outline seven rules for executing a good simulation study. We cover topics including the choice of study question, the empirical data used as a basis for the study, statistical and methodological concerns, how to validate the study, and how to ensure it can be reproduced and extended by others. We hope that these rules and the accompanying examples will guide paleobiologists when using simulation tools to address fundamental questions about the evolution of life. 

New Zealand is a globally significant hotspot for seabird diversity, but the sparse fossil record for most seabird lineages has impeded our understanding of how and when this hotspot developed. Here, we describe multiple exceptionally well-preserved specimens of a new species of penguin from tightly dated (3.36–3.06 Ma) Pliocene deposits in New Zealand. Bayesian and parsimony analyses place Eudyptes atatu sp. nov. as the sister species to all extant and recently extinct members of the crested penguin genus Eudyptes . The new species has a markedly more slender upper beak and mandible compared with other Eudyptes penguins. Our combined evidence approach reveals that deep bills evolved in both crested and stiff-tailed penguins ( Pygoscelis ) during the Pliocene. That deep bills arose so late in the greater than 60 million year evolutionary history of penguins suggests that dietary shifts may have occurred as wind-driven Pliocene upwelling radically restructured southern ocean ecosystems. Ancestral area reconstructions using BioGeoBEARS identify New Zealand as the most likely ancestral area for total-group penguins, crown penguins and crested penguins. Our analyses provide a timeframe for recruitment of crown penguins into the New Zealand avifauna, indicating this process began in the late Neogene and was completed via multiple waves of colonizing lineages.