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SUMMARY Geodetic observations of post-seismic deformation due to afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation can be used to infer fault and lithosphere rheologies by combining the observations with mechanical models of post-seismic processes. However, estimating the spatial distributions of rheological parameters remains challenging because it requires solving a nonlinear inverse problem with a high-dimensional parameter space and potentially computationally expensive forward model. Here we introduce an inversion method to estimate spatially varying fault and lithospheric rheological parameters in a mechanical model of post-seismic deformation using geodetic time series. The forward model combines afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation governed by a velocity-strengthening frictional rheology and a power-law Burgers rheology, respectively, and incorporates the mechanical coupling between coseismic slip, afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation. The inversion method estimates spatially varying fault frictional parameters, viscoelastic constitutive parameters and coseismic stress change. We formulate the inverse problem in a Bayesian framework to quantify the uncertainties of the estimated parameters. To solve this problem with reasonable computational costs, we develop an algorithm to estimate the mean and covariance matrix of the posterior probability distribution based on an ensemble Kalman filter. We validate our method through numerical tests using a 2-D forward model and synthetic post-seismic GNSS time-series. The test results suggest that our method can estimate the spatially varying rheological parameters and their uncertainties reasonably well with tolerable computational costs. Our method can also recover spatially and temporally varying afterslip, viscous strain and effective viscosities and can distinguish the contributions of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation to observed post-seismic deformation. 

Abstract The constitutive behavior of faults intervenes in virtually every aspect of the seismic phenomenon but is poorly understood, particularly regarding how effective normal stress affects the boundaries of the seismogenic zone. Here, we explore the mechanical properties of Pelona schist, Westerly granite, phyllosilicate‐rich gouge, gabbro, hornblende, lawsonite blueschist, montmorillonite, and smectite in hydrothermal conditions at various confining pressures and explain the laboratory observations with a physical model of fault friction. The thermobaric activation of healing and deformation mechanisms explains the boundaries of unstable slip as a function of slip‐rate, temperature, and effective normal stress for a given lithology. The constitutive law affords extrapolation of laboratory data in the conditions relevant to seismic cycles throughout the crust, explaining the focus of large earthquakes in collision, subduction, and continental and oceanic transform settings. 

Abstract The role of upper‐plate faulting in the seismic cycle of large megathrust earthquakes remains poorly understood. We use quasi‐dynamic numerical simulations of seismic cycles to analyze the interaction between crustal faulting and the foreshock sequence of the 2014 Iquique (Mw 8.2) earthquake in Northern Chile. Multi‐cycle models incorporating upper‐plate faulting align better with coseismic displacements, replicating events akin to the Iquique earthquake. Upper‐plate faulting significantly influences foreshock seismicity and deformation patterns. By calibrating the average hydraulic state—varying the effective normal stress—along the megathrust with pre‐earthquake seismicity, we find that lower pore pressure ratios result in more seismicity before the mainshock. This implies that the hydraulic state of the megathrust is critical for foreshock activity. This comprehensive modeling approach underscores the importance of the mechanical interplay between the megathrust and upper‐plate faults in precursory sequences of large subduction zone earthquakes. 

Abstract The empirical rate‐ and state‐dependent friction law is widely used to explain the frictional resistance of rocks. However, the constitutive parameters vary with temperature and sliding velocity, preventing extrapolation of laboratory results to natural conditions. Here, we explain the frictional properties of natural gouge from the San Andreas Fault, Alpine Fault, and the Nankai Trough from room temperature to ∼300°C for a wide range of slip‐rates with constant constitutive parameters by invoking the competition between two healing mechanisms with different thermodynamic properties. A transition from velocity‐strengthening to velocity‐weakening at steady‐state can be attained either by decreasing the slip‐rate or by increasing temperature. Our study provides a framework to understand the physics underlying the slip‐rate and state dependence of friction and the dependence of frictional properties on ambient physical conditions. 

Abstract The frictional properties of faults control the initiation and propagation of earthquakes and the associated hazards. Although the ambient temperature and instantaneous slip velocity controls on friction in isobaric conditions are increasingly well understood, the role of normal stress on steady‐state and transient frictional behaviors remains elusive. The friction coefficient of rocks exhibits a strong dependence on normal stress at typical crustal depths. Furthermore, rapid changes in normal stress cause a direct effect on friction followed by an evolutionary response. Here, we derive a constitutive friction law that consistently explains the yield strength of rocks from atmospheric pressure to gigapascals while capturing the transient behavior following perturbations in normal stress. The model explains the frictional strength of a variety of sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous rocks and the slip‐dependent response upon normal stress steps of Westerly granite bare contact and synthetic gouges made of quartz and a mixture of quartz and smectite. The nonlinear normal stress dependence of the frictional resistance may originate from the distribution of asperities that control the real area of contact. The direct and transient effects may be important for induced seismicity by hydraulic fracturing or for naturally occurring normal stress perturbations within fault zones in the brittle crust. 

Abstract The bottom of the lithosphere is characterized by a thermally controlled transition from brittle to ductile deformation. While the mechanical behavior of rocks firmly within the brittle and ductile regimes is relatively well understood, how the transition operates remains elusive. Here, we study the mechanical properties of pure olivine gouge from 100 to 500°C under 100 MPa pore‐fluid pressure in a triaxial deformation apparatus as a proxy for the mechanical properties of the upper mantle across the brittle‐ductile transition. We describe the mechanical data with a rate‐, state‐, and temperature‐dependent constitutive law with multiple thermally activated deformation mechanisms. The stress power exponents decrease from 70 ± 10 in the brittle regime to 17 ± 3 and 4 ± 2 in the semi‐brittle and ductile regimes, respectively. The mechanical model consistently explains the mechanical behavior of olivine gouge across the brittle‐ductile transition, capturing the gradual evolution from cataclasis to crystal plasticity. 

Abstract Establishing a constitutive law for fault friction is a crucial objective of earthquake science. However, the complex frictional behavior of natural and synthetic gouges in laboratory experiments eludes explanations. Here, we present a constitutive framework that elucidates the rate, state, and temperature dependence of fault friction under the relevant sliding velocities and temperatures of the brittle lithosphere during seismic cycles. The competition between healing mechanisms, such as viscoelastic collapse, pressure‐solution creep, and crack sealing, explains the low‐temperature stability transition from steady‐state velocity‐strengthening to velocity‐weakening as a function of slip‐rate and temperature. In addition, capturing the transition from cataclastic flow to semi‐brittle creep accounts for the stabilization of fault slip at elevated temperatures. We calibrate the model using extensive laboratory data on synthetic albite and granite gouge, and on natural samples from the Alpine Fault and the Mugi Mélange in the Shimanto accretionary complex in Japan. The constitutive model consistently explains the evolving frictional response of fault gouge from room temperature to 600°C for sliding velocities ranging from nanometers to millimeters per second. The frictional response of faults can be uniquely determined by the in situ lithology and the prevailing hydrothermal conditions. 

Abstract The Sulaiman Fold Thrust (SFT) in Central Pakistan formed during the India‐Eurasia collision in the late Cenozoic. However, the mechanics of shortening of the brittle crust at time scales of seismic cycles is still poorly understood. Here, we use radar interferometry to analyze the deformation associated with the 2015 magnitude (Mw) 5.7 Dajal blind earthquake at the eastern boundary of the SFT. We use kinematic inversions to determine the distribution of slip on the frontal ramp and of flexural slip along active axial surfaces for the forward‐ and backward‐verging two end‐member models: a double fault‐bend‐fold system and a fault‐propagation‐fold. In both models, a décollement branches into a shallow ramp at approximately 7.5 km depth with coseismic folding in the hanging wall. The Dajal earthquake ruptured the base of the Boundary Thrust buried under the sediment from the Indus‐River floodplain, representing fault‐bend or fault‐propagation folding some 30 km off its nearest surface exposure. 

Abstract The constitutive behavior of faults is central to many interconnected aspects of earthquake science, from fault dynamics to induced seismicity, to seismic hazards characterization. Yet, a friction law applicable to the range of temperatures found in the brittle crust and upper mantle is still missing. In particular, rocks often exhibit a transition from steady‐state velocity‐strengthening at room temperature to velocity‐weakening in warmer conditions that is poorly understood. Here, we investigate the effect of competing healing mechanisms on the evolution of frictional resistance in a physical model of rate‐, state‐, and temperature‐dependent friction. The yield strength for fault slip depends on the real area of contact, which is modulated by the competition between the growth and erosion of interfacial micro‐asperities. Incorporating multiple healing mechanisms and rock‐forming minerals with different thermodynamic properties allows a transition of the velocity‐ and temperature‐dependence of friction at steady‐state with varying temperatures. We explain the mechanical data for granite, pyroxene, amphibole, shale, and natural fault gouges with activation energies and stress power exponent for weakening of 10–50 kJ/mol and 55–150, respectively, compatible with subcritical crack growth and inter‐granular flow in the active slip zone. Activation energies for the time‐dependent healing process in the range 90–130 kJ/mol in dry conditions and 20–65 kJ/mol in wet conditions indicate the prominence of viscoelastic collapse of microasperities in the absence of water and of pressure‐solution creep, crack healing, and cementation when assisted by pore fluids. 

Abstract Earthquake clustering can be promoted by local, regional, and remote triggering. The interaction between faults by static and dynamic stress transfer has received much attention. However, the role of quasi‐static stress interaction mediated by viscoelastic flow is still poorly understood. Here, we investigate whether the tight synchronization of moment‐magnitude 6 earthquakes every about 6 years on distant asperities in the Gofar‐Discovery fault system of the East Pacific Rise may be caused by mechanical coupling within the lithosphere‐asthenosphere system. We build a three‐dimensional numerical model of seismic cycles in the framework of rate‐ and state‐dependent friction with a brittle layer overlaying a viscoelastic mantle with nonlinear rheology to simulate earthquake cycles on separate asperities. The brittle section of the West Gofar fault consists of two frictionally unstable 20 km‐long by 5 km‐wide asperities separated by a velocity‐strengthening barrier, consistent with seismic observations, allowing stress transfer by afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation. We find that viscoelastic stress transfer can promote the synchronization of earthquakes. Even if the asperities are separated by as far as 30 km, synchronization is still possible for a viscosity of the underlying mantle of 10¹⁷ Pa s, which can be attained by dislocation creep or transient creep during the postseismic period. Considering the similarities in tectonic and structural settings, viscoelastic stress transfer and earthquake synchronization may also occur at 15’20 (Mid‐Atlantic Ridge), George V (Southeast Indian Ridge), Menard and Heezen transform fault (Pacific‐Antarctic Ridge).