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Abstract Interactions among the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) significantly impact global climate variability and seasonal predictions. Traditionally, positive IOD (pIOD) and IOB warming events are associated with El Niño, driven by its influence on the tropical Indian Ocean through Walker Circulation anomalies. Our findings enrich this framework, revealing that a pIOD without El Niño can independently trigger IOB warming, and both types of pIODs can induce La Niña events. While El Niño primarily forces IOB warming and subsequent La Niña development via the atmospheric bridge across the Maritime Continent, pIODs independent of El Niño influence IOB warming through oceanic dynamics, which further favors La Niña development in the following year. The NMEFC‐CESM model sensitivity experiments underscore the critical role of thermocline processes in this mechanism, dependent on the pIOD's temperature amplitude, offering vital insights for forecasting post‐IOD, IOB, and La Niña events. 

Abstract The Makassar Strait throughflow (MST) constitutes a significant component of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) and plays a pivotal role in the interbasin exchange between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. While previous studies have suggested that the buoyancy forcing plays a role in influencing the seasonality of the MST, the quantitative contribution of salinity effect on MST seasonality remains unclear. Here we use the measurements from the Monitoring ITF program and the Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis product to investigate the seasonality of MST and quantify the impact of the salinity effect. We find that the halosteric variability due to the salinity effect contributes to approximately (69.6 ± 11.7) % of the total seasonal variability of surface dynamic height gradient along the Makassar Strait, and dominates the seasonality of the upper layer MST. The primary drivers for freshwater forcing are horizontal advection through the Karimata Strait and precipitation in the Java Sea. 

Abstract Multidecadal variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is crucial for the Indo-Pacific and global climate due to significant interbasin exchanges of heat and freshwater. Previous studies suggest that both wind and buoyancy forcing may drive ITF variability, but the role of precipitation and salinity effect in the variability of ITF on multidecadal time scales remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigate the multidecadal changes and long-term trend of the ITF transport during the past six decades, with a focus on the role of precipitation and salinity effect. The diverse datasets consistently indicate a substantial upward trend in the halosteric component of geostrophic transport of ITF in the outflow region at 114°E during the six decades. We find that the meridional differences of the salinity trend in the outflow region explain the increasing trend of the halosteric component of ITF transport. On a larger scale, the tropical western Pacific Ocean and Indonesian seas have experienced significant freshening, which has strengthened the Indo-Pacific pressure gradient and thus enhanced the ITF. In contrast, the equatorial trade wind in the western Pacific Ocean has weakened over recent decades, implying that changes in wind forcing have contributed to weakening the ITF. The combined effect of strengthened halosteric and weakened thermosteric components has resulted in a weak strengthening for the total ITF with large uncertainties. Although both the thermosteric and halosteric components are associated with natural climate modes, our results suggest that the importance of salinity effect is likely increasing given the enhanced water cycle under global warming. 

Abstract Barrier layers in the tropics trap heat in a shallow and stable near‐surface layer and limit entrainment of cooler water from below. Both processes act to increase sea surface temperature and enhance atmospheric convection. The high resolution fully coupled pre‐industrial Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 0 (E3SMv0) is used to investigate the relationship between barrier layers in the eastern Indian Ocean during the wet season with local atmospheric convection and remote rainfall. A partial least squares regression reveals a significant relationship between Australasian rainfall and the barrier layer thickness (BLT) west of Sumatra, occurring one month earlier. The largest positive regression coefficients are over northern Australia. The region west of Sumatra is strategically located where the East‐Asian monsoon moisture flows toward northern Australia. Thickening of the west Sumatra BLT intensifies evaporation and local convection and amplifies the moisture transported to Australia acting to increase the terrestrial rainfall. 

Global climate is regulated by the ocean, which stores, releases, and transports large amounts of mass, heat, carbon, and oxygen. Understanding, monitoring, and predicting the exchanges of these quantities across the ocean’s surface, their interactions with the atmosphere, and their horizontal and vertical pathways through the global oceans, are key for advancing fundamental knowledge and improving forecasts and longer-term projections of climate, weather, and ocean ecosystems. The existing global observing system provides immense value for science and society in this regard by supplying the data essential for these advancements. The tropical ocean observing system in particular has been developed over decades, motivated in large part by the far-reaching and complex global impacts of tropical climate variability and change. However, changes in observing needs and priorities, new challenges associated with climate change, and advances in observing technologies demand periodic evaluations to ensure that stakeholders’ needs are met. Previous reviews and assessments of the tropical observing system have focused separately on individual basins and their associated observing needs. Here we provide a broader perspective covering the tropical observing system as a whole. Common gaps, needs, and recommendations are identified, and interbasin differences driven by socioeconomic disparities are discussed, building on the concept of an integrated pantropical observing system. Finally, recommendations for improved observations of tropical basin interactions, through oceanic and atmospheric pathways, are presented, emphasizing the benefits that can be achieved through closer interbasin coordination and international partnerships.