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Upper Indus Basin (UIB) streamflow originates largely from glacier and snow melt in the upstream Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges and is extremely vulnerable because of its projected climate changes, dense populations, and hydropolitical tensions. Accurate knowledge of streamflow constituents is required for resilient water resources management; this is precluded by a paucity of measurement as well as climatological and topographic complexity. Here we integrate citizen scientist acquired geochemical samples, collected from October 2018 through September 2019 in the Shimshal watershed of the Karakoram Mountains of Pakistan, with Sentinel‐1 (S1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR)‐derived wet snow maps, to better understand streamflow constituents for the high altitude and heavily glaciated catchment. We use Bayesian end‐member mixture analysis to separate river flows into baseflow and meltwater constituents, using fixed and time‐variant melt end‐member values. We compare river hydrograph separation results with S1 wet snow time series maps for the same timeframe. We then utilize S1 imagery to inform end‐member mixture analysis to separate meltwaters into snow and glacier melt. For the Shimshal catchment, we find that about 85% of annual river flows are derived from snow and glacier melt; 45% of annual flows are derived from snow melt and 40% glacier melt. Engaged and committed citizen scientists enabled geochemical sample collection and analysis on a significant temporal and spatial scale. In the future, co‐produced knowledge that both implements local expertise and that is also planned and utilized by diverse stakeholders may increase climatological awareness and resilience in the UIB.

 

Climate is currently warming due to anthropogenic impact on the Earth’s atmosphere. To better understand the processes and feedbacks within the climate system that underlie this accelerating warming trend, it is useful to examine past periods of abrupt climate change that were driven by natural forcings. Glaciers provide an excellent natural laboratory for reconstructing the climate of the past as they respond sensitively to climate oscillations. Therefore, we study glacier systems and their behavior during the transition from colder to warmer climate phases, focusing on the period between 15 and 10 ka. Using a combination of geomorphological mapping and beryllium-10 surface exposure dating, we reconstruct ice extents in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the Austrian Alps. The mountain glacier record shows that general deglaciation after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was repeatedly interrupted by glacier stabilization or readvance, perhaps during the Oldest Dryas to Bølling transition (landform age: 14.4 ± 1.0 ka) and certainly during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9–11.7 ka) and the Early Holocene (EH; 12–10 ka). The oldest landform age indicates a lateral ice margin that postdates the ‘Gschnitz’ stadial (ca. 17–16 ka) and predates the YD. It shows that local inner-alpine glaciers were more extensive until the onset of the Bølling warm phase (ca. 14.6 ka), or possibly even into the Bølling than during the subsequent YD. The second age group, ca. 80 m below the (pre-)Bølling ice margin, indicates glacier extents during the YD cold phase and captures the spatial and temporal fine structure of glacier retreat during this period. The ice surface lowered approximately 50–60 m through the YD, which is indicative of milder climate conditions at the end of the YD compared to its beginning. Finally, the third age group falls into a period of more substantial warming, the YD–EH transition, and shows discontinuous glacier retreat during the glacial to interglacial transition. The new geochronologies synthesized with pre-existing moraine records from the Silvretta Massif evidence multiple cold phases that punctuated the general post-LGM warming trend and illustrate the sensitive response of Silvretta glaciers to abrupt climate oscillations in the past.

 

Abstract. Over the last century, northwestern Canada experienced some of the highest rates of tropospheric warming globally, which caused glaciers in the region to rapidly retreat. Our study seeks to extend the record of glacier fluctuations and assess climate drivers prior to the instrumental record in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountains of northwestern Canada. We collected 27 10Be surface exposure ages across nine cirque and valley glacier moraines to constrain the timing of their emplacement. Cirque and valley glaciers in this region reached their greatest Holocene extents in the latter half of the Little Ice Age (1600–1850 CE). Four erratic boulders, 10–250 m distal from late Holocene moraines, yielded 10Be exposure ages of 10.9–11.6 ka, demonstrating that by ca. 11 ka, alpine glaciers were no more extensive than during the last several hundred years. Estimated temperature change obtained through reconstruction of equilibrium line altitudes shows that since ca. 1850 CE, mean annual temperatures have risen 0.2–2.3 ∘C. We use our glacier chronology and the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to estimate that from 1000 CE, glaciers in this region reached a maximum total volume of 34–38 km3 between 1765 and 1855 CE and had lost nearly half their ice volume by 2019 CE. OGGM was unable to produce modeled glacier lengths that match the timing or magnitude of the maximum glacier extent indicated by the 10Be chronology. However, when applied to the entire Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain region, past millennium OGGM simulations using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) yield late Holocene glacier volume change temporally consistent with our moraine and remote sensing record, while the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model 2 (MRI-ESM2) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) fail to produce modeled glacier change consistent with our glacier chronology. Finally, OGGM forced by future climate projections under varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios predicts 85 % to over 97 % glacier volume loss by the end of the 21st century. The loss of glaciers from this region will have profound impacts on local ecosystems and communities that rely on meltwater from glacierized catchments.

 

Pakistan is the most glaciated country on the planet but faces increasing water scarcity due to the vulnerability of its primary water source, the Indus River, to changes in climate and demand. Glacier melt constitutes over one-third of the Indus River’s discharge, but the impacts of glacier shrinkage from anthropogenic climate change are not equal across all eleven subbasins of the Upper Indus. We present an exploration of glacier melt contribution to Indus River flow at the subbasin scale using a distributed surface energy and mass balance model run 2001–2013 and calibrated with geodetic mass balance data. We find that the northern subbasins, the three in the Karakoram Range, contribute more glacier meltwater than the other basins combined. While glacier melt discharge tends to be large where there are more glaciers, our modeling study reveals that glacier melt does not scale directly with glaciated area. The largest volume of glacier melt comes from the Gilgit/Hunza subbasin, whose glaciers are at lower elevations than the other Karakoram subbasins. Regional application of the model allows an assessment of the dominant drivers of melt and their spatial distributions. Melt energy in the Nubra/Shyok and neighboring Zaskar subbasins is dominated by radiative fluxes, while turbulent fluxes dominate the melt signal in the west and south. This study provides a theoretical exploration of the spatial patterns to glacier melt in the Upper Indus Basin, a critical foundation for understanding when glaciers melt, information that can inform projections of water supply and scarcity in Pakistan.

 

Southern Andean glaciers contribute substantially to global sea-level rise. Unfortunately, mass balance estimates prior to 2000 are limited, hindering our understanding of the evolution of glacier mass changes over time. Elevation changes over 1976/1979 to 2000 derived from historical KH-9 Hexagon imagery and NASADEM provide the basis for geodetic mass balance estimates for subsets of the Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI), extending current mass balance observations by ∼20 years. Geodetic mass balances were −0.63 ± 0.03 m w.e. yr −1 for 63% of the NPI and −0.33 ± 0.05 m w.e. yr −1 for 52% of the SPI glacierized areas for this historical period. We also extend previous estimates temporally by 25% using NASADEM and ASTER elevation trends for the period 2000 to 2020, and find geodetic mass balances of −0.86 ± 0.03 m w.e. yr −1 for 100% of the NPI and −1.23 ± 0.04 m w.e. yr −1 for 97% of the SPI glacierized areas. 2000–2020 aggregations for the same areas represented in the 1976/1979 to 2000 estimates are −0.78 ± 0.03 m w.e. yr −1 in the NPI and −0.80 ± 0.04 m w.e. yr −1 on the SPI. The significant difference in SPI geodetic mass balance in the modern period for 100% vs. 52% of the glacierized area suggests subsampling leads to significant biases in regional mass balance estimates. When we compare the same areas in each time period, the results highlight an acceleration of ice loss by a factor of 1.2 on the NPI and 2.4 on the SPI in the 21st century as compared to the 1976/1979 to 2000 period. While lake-terminating glaciers show the most significant increase in mass loss rate from 1976/1979–2000 to 2000–2020, mass balance trends are highly variable within glaciers of all terminus environments, which suggests that individual glacier sensitivity to climate change is dependent on a multitude of morphological and climatological factors. 

Abstract. Glaciers preserve climate variations in their geologicaland geomorphological records, which makes them prime candidates for climatereconstructions. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the pastmillennia is particularly relevant first because the amplitude andfrequency of natural climate variability during the Holocene provides theclimatic context against which modern, human-induced climate change must beassessed. Second, the transition from the last glacial to the currentinterglacial promises important insights into the climate system duringwarming, which is of particular interest with respect to ongoing climatechange. Evidence of stable ice margin positions that record cooling during the past12 kyr are preserved in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in theeastern European Alps, the Jamtal (JAM) and the Laraintal (LAR). We mappedand dated moraines in these catchments including historical ridges usingberyllium-10 surface exposure dating (10Be SED) techniques andcorrelate resulting moraine formation intervals with climate proxy recordsto evaluate the spatial and temporal scale of these cold phases. The newgeochronologies indicate the formation of moraines during the early Holocene (EH), ca. 11.0 ± 0.7 ka (n = 19). Boulder ages along historical moraines (n = 6) suggest at least two glacier advances during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250–1850 CE) around 1300 CE and in the second half of the 18th century. An earlier advance to the same position may have occurredaround 500 CE. The Jamtal and Laraintal moraine chronologies provide evidence thatmillennial-scale EH warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cooling.The timing of EH moraine formation coincides with brief temperature dropsidentified in local and regional paleoproxy records, most prominently withthe Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) and is consistent with moraine depositionin other catchments in the European Alps and in the Arctic region. Thisconsistency points to cooling beyond the local scale and therefore aregional or even hemispheric climate driver. Freshwater input sourced fromthe Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which changed circulation patterns in theNorth Atlantic, is a plausible explanation for EH cooling and moraineformation in the Nordic region and in Europe.