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Abstract Accurate estimates of air‐sea enthalpy and momentum fluxes are critically important for hurricane intensity predictions. However, calculating these fluxes is challenging due to the nature of the air‐sea transition region. At extreme wind speeds, a substantial amount of sea spray is lofted making it necessary to calculate the sea spray‐mediated enthalpy and momentum fluxes. These calculations rely on microphysical equations, which are sensitive to the details of the local environmental conditions. Here we use a microphysical model to show that there exists a threshold wind speed beyond which the net sea spray‐mediated enthalpy and momentum fluxes are well‐approximated by using the net sea spray mass flux alone. This result supports the hypothesis that at extreme wind speeds, the ratio of the air‐sea exchange coefficients becomes independent of wind speed, implying the air‐sea flux calculations can be substantially simplified. 

Abstract Historical records of Atlantic hurricane activity, extending back to 1851, show increasing activity over time, but much or all of this trend has been attributed to lack of observations in the early portion of the record. Here we use a tropical cyclone downscaling model driven by three global climate analyses that are based mostly on sea surface temperature and surface pressure data. The results support earlier statistically-based inferences that storms were undercounted in the 19^thcentury, but in contrast to earlier work, show increasing tropical cyclone activity through the period, interrupted by a prominent hurricane drought in the 1970s and 80 s that we attribute to anthropogenic aerosols. In agreement with earlier work, we show that most of the variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the last century was directly related to regional rather than global climate change. Most metrics of tropical cyclones downscaled over all the tropics show weak and/or insignificant trends over the last century, illustrating the special nature of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology. 

Abstract In theoretical models of tropical dynamics, the effects of both surface friction and upward wave radiation through interaction with the stratosphere are oft-ignored, as they greatly complicate mathematical analysis. In this study, we relax the rigid-lid assumption and impose surface drag, which allows the barotropic mode to be excited in equatorial waves. In particular, a previously developed set of linear, strict quasi-equilibrium tropospheric equations is coupled with a dry, passive stratosphere, and surface drag is added to the troposphere momentum equations. Theoretical and numerical model analysis is performed on the model in the limits of an inviscid surface coupled to a stratosphere, as well as a frictional surface under a rigid lid. This study confirms and extends previous research that shows the presence of a stratosphere strongly shifts the growth rates of fast-propagating equatorial waves to larger scales, reddening the equatorial power spectrum. The growth rates of modes that are slowly propagating and highly interactive with cloud radiation are shown to be negligibly affected by the presence of a stratosphere. Surface friction in this model framework acts as purely a damping mechanism and couples the baroclinic mode to the barotropic mode, increasing the poleward extent of the equatorial waves. Numerical solutions of the coupled troposphere–stratosphere model with surface friction show that the stratosphere stratification controls the extent of tropospheric trapping of the barotropic mode, and thus the poleward extent of the wave. The superposition of phase-shifted barotropic and first baroclinic modes is also shown to lead to an eastward vertical tilt in the dynamical fields of Kelvin wave–like modes. 

Abstract Pluvial floods generated by tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the major concerns for coastal communities. Choosing Houston as an example, we demonstrate that there will be significantly elevated risk of TC rainfall and flood in the future warming world by coupling downscaled TCs from Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models with physical hydrological models. We find that slower TC translation speed, more frequent stalling, greater TC frequency, and increased rain rate are major contributors to increased TC rainfall risk and flood risk. The TC flood risk increases more than the rainfall. Smaller watersheds with a high degree of urbanization are particularly vulnerable to future changes in TC floods in a warming world. 

Abstract The intensity of tropical cyclones is sensitive to the air-sea fluxes of enthalpy and momentum. Sea spray plays a critical role in mediating enthalpy and momentum fluxes over the ocean’s surface at high wind speeds, and parameterizing the influence of sea spray is a crucial component of any air-sea interaction scheme used for the high wind regime where sea spray is ubiquitous. Many studies have proposed parameterizations of air-sea flux that incorporate the microphysics of sea spray evaporation and the mechanics of sea spray stress. Unfortunately, there is not yet a consensus on which parameterization best represents air-sea exchange in tropical cyclones, and the different proposed parameterizations can yield substantially different tropical cyclone intensities. This paper seeks to review the developments in parameterizations of the sea spray-mediated enthalpy and momentum fluxes for the high wind speed regime and to synthesize key findings that are common across many investigations. 

Abstract Global models comprising the sixth-generation Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are downscaled using a very high-resolution but simplified coupled atmosphere–ocean tropical cyclone model, as a means of estimating the response of global tropical cyclone activity to increasing greenhouse gases. As with a previous downscaling of CMIP5 models, the results show an increase in both the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones, robust across the models downscaled, in response to increasing greenhouse gases. The increase is strongly weighted to the Northern Hemisphere, and especially noteworthy is a large increase in the higher latitudes of the North Atlantic. Changes are insignificant in the South Pacific across metrics. Although the largest increases in track density are far from land, substantial increases in global landfalling power dissipation are indicated. The incidence of rapid intensification increases rapidly with warming, as predicted by existing theory. Measures of robustness across downscaled climate models are presented, and comparisons to tropical cyclones explicitly simulated in climate models are discussed.