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Abstract. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models can fill thespatial and temporal gap in ocean carbon observations. Challenges ofapplying a coupled physical–biogeochemical model in the regional oceaninclude the reasonable prescription of carbon model boundary conditions,lack of in situ observations, and the oversimplification of certainbiogeochemical processes. In this study, we applied a coupledphysical–biogeochemical model (Regional Ocean Modelling System, ROMS) to theGulf of Mexico (GoM) and achieved an unprecedented 20-year high-resolution(5 km, 1/22∘) hindcast covering the period of 2000 to 2019. Thebiogeochemical model incorporated the dynamics of dissolved organic carbon(DOC) pools and the formation and dissolution of carbonate minerals. Thebiogeochemical boundaries were interpolated from NCAR's CESM2-WACCM-FV2solution after evaluating the performance of 17 GCMs in the GoM waters. Modeloutputs included carbon system variables of wide interest, such aspCO2, pH, aragonite saturation state (ΩArag), calcitesaturation state (ΩCalc), CO2 air–sea flux, and carbon burialrate. The model's robustness is evaluated via extensive model–datacomparison against buoys, remote-sensing-based machine learning (ML)products, and ship-based measurements. A reassessment of air–sea CO2flux with previous modeling and observational studies gives us confidencethat our model provides a robust and updated CO2 flux estimation, andNGoM is a stronger carbon sink than previously reported. Model resultsreveal that the GoM water has been experiencing a ∼ 0.0016 yr−1 decrease in surface pH over the past 2 decades, accompanied by a∼ 1.66 µatm yr−1 increase in sea surfacepCO2. The air–sea CO2 exchange estimation confirms in accordance with severalprevious models and ocean surface pCO2 observations that theriver-dominated northern GoM (NGoM) is a substantial carbon sink, and theopen GoM is a carbon source during summer and a carbon sink for the rest ofthe year. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to evaluate the impacts ofriver inputs and the global ocean via model boundaries. The NGoM carbonsystem is directly modified by the enormous carbon inputs (∼ 15.5 Tg C yr−1 DIC and ∼ 2.3 Tg C yr−1 DOC) from theMississippi–Atchafalaya River System (MARS). Additionally,nutrient-stimulated biological activities create a ∼ 105 timeshigher particulate organic matter burial rate in NGoM sediment than in thecase without river-delivered nutrients. The carbon system condition of theopen ocean is driven by inputs from the Caribbean Sea via the Yucatan Channeland is affected more by thermal effects than biological factors. 

Changing salinity in estuaries due to sea level rise and altered rainfall patterns, as a result of climate change, has the potential to influence the interactions of aquatic pollutants as well as to alter their toxicity. From a chemical property point of view, ionic concentration can increase the octanol–water partition coefficient and thus decrease the water solubility of a compound. Biologically, organism physiology and enzyme metabolism are also altered at different salinities with implications for drug metabolism and toxic effects. This highlights the need to understand the influence of salinity on pesticide toxicity when assessing risk to estuarine and marine fishes, particularly considering that climate change is predicted to alter salinity regimes globally and many risk assessments and regulatory decisions are made using freshwater studies. Therefore, we exposed the Inland Silverside (Menidia beryllina) at an early life stage to seven commonly used pesticides at two salinities relevant to estuarine waters (5 PSU and 15 PSU). Triadimefon was the only compound to show a statistically significant increase in toxicity at the 15 PSU LC50. However, all compounds showed a decrease in LC50 values at the higher salinity, and all but one showed a decrease in the LC10 value. Many organisms rely on estuaries as nurseries and increased toxicity at higher salinities may mean that organisms in critical life stages of development are at risk of experiencing adverse, toxic effects. The differences in toxicity demonstrated here have important implications for organisms living within estuarine and marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene as climate change alters estuarine salinity regimes globally.