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We establish selection of critical pulled fronts in invasion processes as predicted by the marginal stability conjecture. Our result shows convergence to a pulled front with a logarithmic shift for open sets of steep initial data, including one-sided compactly supported initial conditions. We rely on robust, conceptual assumptions, namely existence and marginal spectral stability of a front traveling at the linear spreading speed and demonstrate that the assumptions hold for open classes of spatially extended systems. Previous results relied on comparison principles or probabilistic tools with implied nonopen conditions on initial data and structure of the equation. Technically, we describe the invasion process through the interaction of a Gaussian leading edge with the pulled front in the wake. Key ingredients are sharp linear decay estimates to control errors in the nonlinear matching and corrections from initial data. 

Abstract We study transitions from convective to absolute instability near a trivial state in large bounded domains for prototypical model problems in the presence of transport and negative nonlinear feedback. We identify two generic scenarios, depending on the nature of the linear mechanism for instability, which both lead to different, universal bifurcation diagrams. In the first, classical case of a linear branched resonance the transition is hard, that is, small changes in a control parameter lead to a finite-size state. In the second, novel case of an unbranched resonance, the transition is gradual. In both cases, the bifurcation diagram is determined by interaction of the leading edge of an invasion front with upstream boundary conditions. Technically, we analyze this interaction in a heteroclinic gluing bifurcation analysis that uses geometric desingularization of the trivial state.