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Solar energetic particle (SEP) events and their major subclass, solar proton events (SPEs), can have unfavorable consequences on numerous aspects of life and technology, making them one of the most harmful effects of solar activity. Garnering knowledge preceding such events by studying operational data flows is essential for their forecasting. Considering only solar cycle (SC) 24 in our previous study, we found that it may be sufficient to only utilize proton and soft X-ray (SXR) parameters for SPE forecasts. Here, we report a catalog recording ≥10 MeV ≥10 particle flux unit SPEs with their properties, spanning SCs 22–24, using NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite flux data. We report an additional catalog of daily proton and SXR flux statistics for this period, employing it to test the application of machine learning (ML) on the prediction of SPEs using a support vector machine (SVM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). We explore the effects of training models with data from oneandtwo SCs, evaluating how transferable a model might be across different time periods. XGBoost proved to be more accurate than SVMs for almost every test considered, while also outperforming operational SWPC NOAA predictions and a persistence forecast. Interestingly, training done with SC 24 produces weaker true skill statistic and Heidke skill scores₂, even when paired with SC 22 or SC 23, indicating transferability issues. This work contributes toward validating forecasts using long-spanning data—an understudied area in SEP research that should be considered to verify the cross cycle robustness of ML-driven forecasts.

 

The first significant sunquake event of Solar Cycle 25 was observed during the X1.5 flare of 2022 May 10, by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We perform a detailed spectro-polarimetric analysis of the sunquake photospheric sources, using the Stokes profiles of the Fei6173 Å line, reconstructed from the HMI linear and circular polarized filtergrams. The results show fast variations of the continuum emission with rapid growth and slower decay lasting 3–4 minutes, coinciding in time with the hard X-ray impulses observed by the Konus instrument on board the Wind spacecraft. The variations in the line core appeared slightly ahead of the variations in the line wings, showing that the heating started in the higher atmospheric layers and propagated downward. The most significant feature of the line profile variations is the transient emission in the line core in three of the four sources, indicating intense, impulsive heating in the lower chromosphere and photosphere. In addition, the observed variations of the Stokes profiles reflect transient and permanent changes in the magnetic field strength and geometry in the sunquake sources. Comparison with the radiative hydrodynamics models shows that the physical processes in the impulsive flare phase are substantially more complex than those predicted by proton and electron beam flare models currently presented in the literature.

 

Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) observations reveal a class of solar flares with substantial energy and momentum impacts in the photosphere, concurrent with white-light emission and helioseismic responses, known as sunquakes. Previous radiative hydrodynamic modeling has demonstrated the challenges of explaining sunquakes in the framework of the standard flare model of “electron beam” heating. One of the possibilities to explain the sunquakes and other signatures of the photospheric impact is to consider additional heating mechanisms involved in solar flares, for example via flare-accelerated protons. In this work, we analyze a set of single-loop Fokker–Planck and radiative hydrodynamics RADYN+FP simulations where the atmosphere is heated by nonthermal power-law-distributed proton beams which can penetrate deeper than the electron beams into the low atmospheric layers. Using the output of the RADYN models, we calculate synthetic Fei6173 Å line Stokes profiles and from those the line-of-sight observables of the SDO/HMI instrument, as well as the 3D helioseismic response, and compare them with the corresponding observational characteristics. These initial results show that the models with proton beam heating can produce the enhancement of the HMI continuum observable and explain qualitatively the generation of sunquakes. The continuum observable enhancement is evident in all models but is more prominent in ones withE_c≥ 500 keV. In contrast, the models withE_c≤ 100 keV provide a stronger sunquake-like helioseismic impact according to the 3D acoustic modeling, suggesting that low-energy (deka- and hecto-keV) protons have an important role in the generation of sunquakes.

 

The flux of energetic particles originating from the Sun fluctuates during the solar cycles. It depends on the number and properties of active regions (ARs) present in a single day and associated solar activities, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. Observational records of the Space Weather Prediction Center NOAA enable the creation of time-indexed databases containing information about ARs and particle flux enhancements, most widely known as solar energetic particle (SEP) events. In this work, we utilize the data available for solar cycles 21–24 and the initial phase of cycle 25 to perform a statistical analysis of the correlation between SEPs and properties of ARs inferred from the McIntosh and Hale classifications. We find that the complexity of the magnetic field, longitudinal location, area, and penumbra type of the largest sunspot of ARs are most correlated with the production of SEPs. It is found that most SEPs (≈60%, or 108 out of 181 considered events) were generated from an AR classified with the “k” McIntosh subclass as the second component, and these ARs are more likely to produce SEPs if they fall in a Hale class containing aδcomponent. The resulting database containing information about SEP events and ARs is publicly available and can be used for the development of machine learning models to predict the occurrence of SEPs.

 

Recent work published by Lindsey et al. find evidence for a deep and compact seismic source for the sunquake associated with the 2011 July 30 M9.3 flare, as well as seismic emission extending up to 10 mHz. We examine the sunquake independently, and a possible wave front is found in the 8 mHz band, though no wave front is easily discernible in the 10 mHz band. Additionally, we perform numerical simulations of seismic excitation modeled with the reported parameters and changes in the power spectra with increasing depth of the excitation source are examined. It is found that the peak frequency decreases for increasing depths, but a shallow minimum is indicated betweenz= 0 andz= −840 km. Analysis of the suspected wave front of the M9.3 sunquake finds that the power spectrum of the reported seismic emission is close to that of background oscillations, though with a peak frequency noticeably lower than the background peak. Additionally, it is found that the amplitude of the source estimated by Lindsey et al. is too low to produce the observed wave front.

 

Helioseismic response to solar flares ("sunquakes") occurs due to localized force or/and momentum impacts observed during the flare impulsive phase in the lower atmosphere. Such impacts may be caused by precipitation of high-energy particles, downward shocks, or magnetic Lorentz force. Understanding the mechanism of sunquakes is a key problem of the flare energy release and transport. Our statistical analysis of M-X class flares observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory during Solar Cycle 24 has shown that contrary to expectations, many relatively weak M-class flares produced strong sunquakes, while for some powerful X-class flares, helioseismic waves were not observed or were weak. The analysis also revealed that there were active regions characterized by the most efficient generation of sunquakes during the solar cycle. We found that the sunquake power correlates with maximal values of the X-ray flux derivative better than with the X-ray class. The sunquake data challenge the current theories of solar flares.