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We analyze 15‐year of observational data and a 5‐year Southern Ocean model simulation to quantify the transformation rates of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and the associated heat loss to the surface. This study finds that over the continental shelves of East Antarctica and the Weddell and Ross Seas, surface buoyancy fluxes transform ∼4.4 Sv of surface waters into CDW, providing a path for CDW to lose heat to the surface. In addition, ∼6.6 Sv of CDW are mixed with surface waters in the Weddell and Ross subpolar gyres. In contrast, enhanced stratification inhibits the outcropping of CDW isopycnals, reducing their transformation rates by a factor of ∼8 over the continental shelf and by a factor of ∼3 over the deeper ocean in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. The CDW retains its offshore warm properties as it intrudes over the continental shelves, resulting in elevated bottom temperatures there. This analysis demonstrates the importance of processes in subpolar gyres to erode CDW and to facilitate further transformation on the continental shelves, significantly reducing the heat able to access ice shelf fronts. This sheltering effect is strongest in the western Weddell Sea and tends to diminish toward the east, which helps explain the large zonal differences in continental‐shelf bottom temperatures and the melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves.

 

The origins of the upper limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the partition among different routes has been quantified with models at eddy-permitting and one eddy-resolving model or with low-resolution models assimilating observations. Here, a step toward bridging this gap is taken by using the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) at the eddy-permitting 1/6° horizontal resolution to compute Lagrangian diagnostics from virtual particle trajectories advected between 6.7°S and two meridional sections: one at Drake Passage (cold route) and the other from South Africa to Antarctica (warm route). Our results agree with the prevailing concept attributing the largest transport contribution to the warm route with 12.3 Sv (88%) (1 Sv ≡ 10⁶m³s⁻¹) compared with 1.7 Sv (12%) for the cold route. These results are compared with a similar Lagrangian experiment performed with the lower-resolution state estimate from Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean. Eulerian and Lagrangian means highlight an overall increase in the transport of the major South Atlantic currents with finer resolution, resulting in a relatively larger contribution from the cold route. In particular, the Malvinas Current to Antarctic Circumpolar Current (MC/ACC) ratio plays a more important role on the routes partition than the increased Agulhas Leakage. The relative influence of the mean flow versus the eddy flow on the routes partition is investigated by computing the mean and eddy kinetic energies and the Lagrangian-based eddy diffusivity. Lagrangian diffusivity estimates are largest in the Agulhas and Malvinas regions but advection by the mean flow dominates everywhere.

 

Forecasting Antarctic atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice conditions on subseasonal to seasonal scales remains a major challenge. During both the freezing and melting seasons current operational ensemble forecasting systems show a systematic overestimation of the Antarctic sea-ice edge location. The skill of sea ice cover prediction is closely related to the accuracy of cloud representation in models, as the two are strongly coupled by cloud radiative forcing. In particular, surface downward longwave radiation (DLW) deficits appear to be a common shortcoming in atmospheric models over the Southern Ocean. For example, a recent comparison of ECMWF reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5) global reanalysis with the observations from McMurdo Station revealed a year-round deficit in DLW of approximately 50 Wm⁻²in marine air masses due to model shortages in supercooled cloud liquid water. A comparison with the surface DLW radiation observations from the Ocean Observatories Initiative mooring in the South Pacific at 54.08° S, 89.67° W, for the time period January 2016–November 2018, confirms approximately 20 Wm⁻²deficit in DLW in ERA5 well north of the sea-ice edge. Using a regional ocean model, we show that when DLW is artificially increased by 50 Wm⁻²in the simulation driven by ERA5 atmospheric forcing, the predicted sea ice growth agrees much better with the observations. A wide variety of sensitivity tests show that the anomalously large, predicted sea-ice extent is not due to limitations in the ocean model and that by implication the cause resides with the atmospheric forcing.

 

Previous studies proposed that the increase in the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Southern Ocean in recent decades is primarily caused by the strengthening of circumpolar surface westerlies. However, the spatial pattern of EKE change does not match the pattern of wind change. Here, we revisit the relationship between EKE and wind stress through an observational analysis and model experiments and show that the change in EKE is primarily determined by the mean flow. The increasing wind stress intensifies the circumpolar mean flow contributing to increasing EKE; yet strong EKE variations are generally confined downstream of major topographic features. This arises from the releasing of available potential energy as the mean flow passes through the topography. Our results indicate that the change in Southern Ocean eddy activity has a distinct localization characteristic due to the strong dynamical influence of topography.

 

Subduction in the Antarctic circumpolar region of the Southern Ocean (SO) results in the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). Theoretical understanding predicts that subduction rates of these waters masses is driven by wind stress curl and buoyancy fluxes. The objective of this work is to evaluate the extent to which AAIW and SAMW variability are correlated to SO air‐sea fluxes and how potential changes to those forcings would impact the future water mass export rates. We correlate the water mass volume transport at 30°S with Ekman pumping, freshwater and heat fluxes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The export of these water masses varies across models, with most overestimating the total transport. Correlation coefficients between the air‐sea fluxes and exports are consistent with theoretical expectations. In the picontrol/historical scenarios, the highest correlations with AAIW export variability are heat flux, while Ekman pumping best explains SAMW. However, multivariate regressions show that both AAIW and SAMW export variability are better explained using the combination of all three fluxes. In future scenario simulations air‐sea fluxes trend significantly in the catastrophic scenario (RCP8.5 and SSP8.5). Both AAIW and SAMW are still highly correlated to the fluxes, but with different correlation coefficients. The dominant forcing components even change from the present simulations to the future scenario runs. Thus, correlations between AAIW and SAMW transports and air‐sea fluxes are not stationary in time, limiting the predictive skill of statistical models and highlighting the importance of using complex climate models.

 

Abstract. Ocean–sea-ice coupled models constrained by various observations provide different ice thickness estimates in the Antarctic. We evaluatecontemporary monthly ice thickness from four reanalyses in the Weddell Sea: the German contribution of the project Estimating the Circulation and Climate ofthe Ocean Version 2 (GECCO2), the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE), the Ensemble Kalman Filter system based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO-EnKF) and the Global Ice–Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS). The evaluation is performed againstreference satellite and in situ observations from ICESat-1, Envisat, upward-looking sonars and visual ship-based sea-ice observations. Compared withICESat-1, NEMO-EnKF has the highest correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.54 and lowest root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.44 m. Compared within situ observations, SOSE has the highest CC of 0.77 and lowest RMSE of 0.72 m. All reanalyses underestimate ice thickness near the coast ofthe western Weddell Sea with respect to ICESat-1 and in situ observations even though these observational estimates may be biased low. GECCO2 andNEMO-EnKF reproduce the seasonal variation in first-year ice thickness reasonably well in the eastern Weddell Sea. In contrast, GIOMAS ice thicknessperforms best in the central Weddell Sea, while SOSE ice thickness agrees most with the observations from the southern coast of the Weddell Sea. Inaddition, only NEMO-EnKF can reproduce the seasonal evolution of the large-scale spatial distribution of ice thickness, characterized by the thickice shifting from the southwestern and western Weddell Sea in summer to the western and northwestern Weddell Sea in spring. We infer that the thickice distribution is correlated with its better simulation of northward ice motion in the western Weddell Sea. These results demonstrate thepossibilities and limitations of using current sea-ice reanalysis for understanding the recent variability of sea-ice volume in the Antarctic. 

The Southern Ocean overturning circulation is driven by winds, heat fluxes, and freshwater sources. Among these sources of freshwater, Antarctic sea-ice formation and melting play the dominant role. Even though ice-shelf melt is relatively small in magnitude, it is located close to regions of convection, where it may influence dense water formation. Here, we explore the impacts of ice-shelf melting on Southern Ocean water mass transformation (WMT) using simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) both with and without the explicit representation of melt fluxes from beneath Antarctic ice shelves. We find that ice-shelf melting enhances transformation of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), converting it to lower density values. While the overall differences in Southern Ocean WMT between the two simulations are moderate, freshwater fluxes produced by ice-shelf melting have a further, indirect impact on the Southern Ocean overturning circulation through their interaction with sea-ice formation and melting, which also cause considerable upwelling. We further find that surface freshening and cooling by ice-shelf melting causes increased Antarctic sea-ice production and stronger density stratification near the Antarctic coast. In addition, ice-shelf melting causes decreasing air temperature, which may be directly related to sea-ice expansion. The increased stratification reduces vertical heat transport from the deeper ocean. Although the addition of ice-shelf melting processes leads to no significant changes in Southern Ocean WMT, the simulations and analysis conducted here point to a relationship between increased Antarctic ice-shelf melting and the increased role of sea ice in Southern Ocean overturning.