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Spatiotemporal data analysis with massive zeros is widely used in many areas such as epidemiology and public health. We use a Bayesian framework to fit zero-inflated negative binomial models and employ a set of latent variables from Pólya-Gamma distributions to derive an efficient Gibbs sampler. The proposed model accommodates varying spatial and temporal random effects through Gaussian process priors, which have both the simplicity and flexibility in modeling nonlinear relationships through a covariance function. To conquer the computation bottleneck that GPs may suffer when the sample size is large, we adopt the nearest-neighbor GP approach that approximates the covariance matrix using local experts. For the simulation study, we adopt multiple settings with varying sizes of spatial locations to evaluate the performance of the proposed model such as spatial and temporal random effects estimation and compare the result to other methods. We also apply the proposed model to the COVID-19 death counts in the state of Florida, USA from 3/25/2020 through 7/29/2020 to examine relationships between social vulnerability and COVID-19 deaths. 

While matrix-covariate regression models have been studied in many existing works, classical statistical and computational methods for the analysis of the regression coefficient estimation are highly affected by high dimensional matrix-valued covariates. To address these issues, this paper proposes a framework of matrix-covariate regression models based on a low-rank constraint and an additional regularization term for structured signals, with considerations of models of both continuous and binary responses. We propose an efficient Riemannian-steepest-descent algorithm for regression coefficient estimation. We prove that the consistency of the proposed estimator is in the order of O(sqrt{r(q+m)+p}/sqrt{n}), where r is the rank, p x m is the dimension of the coefficient matrix and p is the dimension of the coefficient vector. When the rank r is small, this rate improves over O(sqrt{qm+p}/sqrt{n}), the consistency of the existing work (Li et al. in Electron J Stat 15:1909-1950, 2021) that does not apply a rank constraint. In addition, we prove that all accumulation points of the iterates have similar estimation errors asymptotically and substantially attaining the minimax rate. We validate the proposed method through a simulated dataset on two-dimensional shape images and two real datasets of brain signals and microscopic leucorrhea images. 

The North American deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) have been used as an environmental change indicator in North America. Since precipitation and temperature changes affect plant productivity and deer mouse habitats, they are substantial factors of deer mouse population radical variations. Therefore, modeling their association is important for monitoring dynamic changes of the deer mouse amounts per trap and relationships among weather variables such as precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. We acquired the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) data of deer mouse monthly amounts in traps for 2013 through 2022 in the contiguous United States from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring spatial differences and temporal changes in populations. We categorize the contiguous United States into six regions associated with climates. The proposed method identifies important factors of temperature and precipitation seasonal patterns with the month and year temporal effect interacting with the proposed climate-related regions. 

A trajectory is a sequence of observations in time and space, for examples, the path formed by maritime vessels, orbital debris, or aircraft. It is important to track and reconstruct vessel trajectories using the Automated Identification System (AIS) data in real-world applications for maritime navigation safety. In this project, we use the National Science Foundation (NSF)'s Algorithms for Threat Detection program (ATD) 2019 Challenge AIS data to develop novel trajectory reconstruction method. Given a sequence ofNunlabeled timestamped observations, the goal is to track trajectories by clustering the AIS points with predicted positions using the information from the true trajectoriesΧ. It is a natural way to connect the observed pointx_îwith the closest point that is estimated by using the location, time, speed, and angle information from a set of the points under considerationx_i∀i∈ {1, 2, …,N}. The introduced method is an unsupervised clustering-based method that does not train a supervised model which may incur a significant computational cost, so it leads to a real-time, reliable, and accurate trajectory reconstruction method. Our experimental results show that the proposed method successfully clusters vessel trajectories. 

Anomaly detection plays an important role in traffic operations and control. Missingness in spatial-temporal datasets prohibits anomaly detection algorithms from learning characteristic rules and patterns due to the lack of large amounts of data. This paper proposes an anomaly detection scheme for the 2021 Algorithms for Threat Detection (ATD) challenge based on Gaussian process models that generate features used in a logistic regression model which leads to high prediction accuracy for sparse traffic flow data with a large proportion of missingness. The dataset is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in conjunction with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), and it consists of thousands of labeled traffic flow records for 400 sensors from 2011 to 2020. Each sensor is purposely downsampled by NSF and NGA in order to simulate missing completely at random, and the missing rates are 99%, 98%, 95%, and 90%. Hence, it is challenging to detect anomalies from the sparse traffic flow data. The proposed scheme makes use of traffic patterns at different times of day and on different days of week to recover the complete data. The proposed anomaly detection scheme is computationally efficient by allowing parallel computation on different sensors. The proposed method is one of the two top performing algorithms in the 2021 ATD challenge. 

A prior for Bayesian nonparametric clustering called the Table Invitation Prior (TIP) is used to cluster gene expression data. TIP uses information concerning the pairwise distances between subjects (e.g., gene expression samples) and automatically estimates the number of clusters. TIP’s hyperparameters are estimated using a univariate multiple change point detection algorithm with respect to the subject distances, and thus TIP does not require an analyst’s intervention for estimating hyperparameters. A Gibbs sampling algorithm is provided, and TIP is used in conjunction with a Normal-Inverse-Wishart likelihood to cluster 801 gene expression samples, each of which belongs to one of five different types of cancer. 

Abstract We develop a cluster process which is invariant with respect to unknown affine transformations of the feature space without knowing the number of clusters in advance. Specifically, our proposed method can identify clusters invariant under (I) orthogonal transformations, (II) scaling-coordinate orthogonal transformations, and (III) arbitrary nonsingular linear transformations corresponding to models I, II, and III, respectively and represent clusters with the proposed heatmap of the similarity matrix. The proposed Metropolis-Hasting algorithm leads to an irreducible and aperiodic Markov chain, which is also efficient at identifying clusters reasonably well for various applications. Both the synthetic and real data examples show that the proposed method could be widely applied in many fields, especially for finding the number of clusters and identifying clusters of samples of interest in aerial photography and genomic data. 

While linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a widely used classification method, it is highly affected by outliers which commonly occur in various real datasets. Therefore, several robust LDA methods have been proposed. However, they either rely on robust estimation of the sample means and covariance matrix which may have noninvertible Hessians or can only handle binary classes or low dimensional cases. The proposed robust discriminant analysis is a multi-directional projection-pursuit approach which can classify multiple classes without estimating the covariance or Hessian matrix and work for high dimensional cases. The weight function effectively gives smaller weights to the points more deviant from the class center. The discriminant vectors and scoring vectors are solved by the proposed iterative algorithm. It inherits good properties of the weight function and multi-directional projection pursuit for reducing the influence of outliers on estimating the discriminant directions and producing robust classification which is less sensitive to outliers. We show that when a weight function is appropriately chosen, then the influence function is bounded and discriminant vectors and scoring vectors are both consistent as the percentage of outliers goes to zero. The experimental results show that the robust optimal scoring discriminant analysis is effective and efficient.