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Permafrost is a sub-ground phenomenon and therefore cannot be directly observed from space. It is an Essential Climate Variable and associated with climate tipping points. Multi-annual time series of permafrost ground temperatures can be, however, derived through modelling of the heat transfer between atmosphere and ground using landsurface temperature, snow- and landcover observations from space. Results show that the northern hemisphere permafrost ground temperatures have increased on average by about one degree Celsius since 2000. This is in line with trends of permafrost proxies observable from space: surface water extent has been decreasing across the Arctic; the landsurface is subsiding continuously in some regions indicating ground ice melt; hot summers triggered increased subsidence as well as thaw slumps; rock glaciers are accelerating in some mountain regions. The applicability of satellite data for permafrost proxy monitoring has been demonstrated mostly on a local to regional scale only. There is still a lack of consistency of acquisitions and of very high spatial resolution observations. Both are needed for implementation of circumpolar monitoring of lowland permafrost. In order to quantify the impacts of permafrost thaw on the carbon cycle, advancement in wetland and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration monitoring from space is needed.

 

The presence of ground ice in Arctic soils exerts a major effect on permafrost hydrology and ecology, and factors prominently into geomorphic landform development. As most ground ice has accumulated in near-surface permafrost, it is sensitive to variations in atmospheric conditions. Typical and regionally widespread permafrost landforms such as pingos, ice-wedge polygons, and rock glaciers are closely tied to ground ice. However, under ongoing climate change, suitable environmental spaces for preserving landforms associated with ice-rich permafrost may be rapidly disappearing. We deploy a statistical ensemble approach to model, for the first time, the current and potential future environmental conditions of three typical permafrost landforms, pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere. We show that by midcentury, the landforms are projected to lose more than one-fifth of their suitable environments under a moderate climate scenario (RCP4.5) and on average around one-third under a very high baseline emission scenario (RCP8.5), even when projected new suitable areas for occurrence are considered. By 2061–2080, on average more than 50% of the recent suitable conditions can be lost (RCP8.5). In the case of pingos and ice-wedge polygons, geographical changes are mainly attributed to alterations in thawing-season precipitation and air temperatures. Rock glaciers show air temperature-induced regional changes in suitable conditions strongly constrained by topography and soil properties. The predicted losses could have important implications for Arctic hydrology, geo- and biodiversity, and to the global climate system through changes in biogeochemical cycles governed by the geomorphology of permafrost landscapes. Moreover, our projections provide insights into the circumpolar distribution of various ground ice types and help inventory permafrost landforms in unmapped regions.

 

The retreat of glaciers in response to global warming has the potential to trigger landslides in glaciated regions around the globe. Landslides that enter fjords or lakes can cause tsunamis, which endanger people and infrastructure far from the landslide itself. Here we document the ongoing movement of an unstable slope (total volume of 455 × 10⁶m³) in Barry Arm, a fjord in Prince William Sound, Alaska. The slope moved rapidly between 2010 and 2017, yielding a horizontal displacement of 120 m, which is highly correlated with the rapid retreat and thinning of Barry Glacier. Should the entire unstable slope collapse at once, preliminary tsunami modeling suggests a maximum runup of 300 m near the landslide, which may have devastating impacts on local communities. Our findings highlight the need for interdisciplinary studies of recently deglaciated fjords to refine our understanding of the impact of climate change on landslides and tsunamis.

 

Data are available for download at http://arcticdata.io/data/10.18739/A2KW57K57 Permafrost can be indirectly detected via remote sensing techniques through the presence of ice-wedge polygons, which are a ubiquitous ground surface feature in tundra regions. Ice-wedge polygons form through repeated annual cracking of the ground during cold winter days. In spring, the cracks fill in with snowmelt water, creating ice wedges, which are connected across the landscape in an underground network and that can grow to several meters depth and width. The growing ice wedges push the soil upwards, forming ridges that bound low-centered ice-wedge polygons. If the top of the ice wedge melts, the ground subsides and the ridges become troughs and the ice-wedge polygons become high-centered. Here, a Convolutional Neural Network is used to map the boundaries of individual ice-wedge polygons based on high-resolution commercial satellite imagery obtained from the Polar Geospatial Center. This satellite imagery used for the detection of ice-wedge polygons represent years between 2001 and 2021, so this dataset represents ice-wedge polygons mapped from different years. This dataset does not include a time series (i.e. same area mapped more than once). The shapefiles are masked, reprojected, and processed into GeoPackages with calculated attributes for each ice-wedge polygon such as circumference and width. The GeoPackages are then rasterized with new calculated attributes for ice-wedge polygon coverage such a coverage density. This release represents the region classified as “high ice” by Brown et al. 1997. The dataset is available to explore on the Permafrost Discovery Gateway (PDG), an online platform that aims to make big geospatial permafrost data accessible to enable knowledge-generation by researchers and the public. The PDG project creates various pan-Arctic data products down to the sub-meter and monthly resolution. Access the PDG Imagery Viewer here: https://arcticdata.io/catalog/portals/permafrost Data limitations in use: This data is part of an initial release of the pan-Arctic data product for ice-wedge polygons, and it is expected that there are constraints on its accuracy and completeness. Users are encouraged to provide feedback regarding how they use this data and issues they encounter during post-processing. Please reach out to the dataset contact or a member of the PDG team via support@arcticdata.io. 

Cloud detection is an inextricable pre-processing step in remote sensing image analysis workflows. Most of the traditional rule-based and machine-learning-based algorithms utilize low-level features of the clouds and classify individual cloud pixels based on their spectral signatures. Cloud detection using such approaches can be challenging due to a multitude of factors including harsh lighting conditions, the presence of thin clouds, the context of surrounding pixels, and complex spatial patterns. In recent studies, deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have shown outstanding results in the computer vision domain. These methods are practiced for better capturing the texture, shape as well as context of images. In this study, we propose a deep learning CNN approach to detect cloud pixels from medium-resolution satellite imagery. The proposed CNN accounts for both the low-level features, such as color and texture information as well as high-level features extracted from successive convolutions of the input image. We prepared a cloud-pixel dataset of approximately 7273 randomly sampled 320 by 320 pixels image patches taken from a total of 121 Landsat-8 (30m) and Sentinel-2 (20m) image scenes. These satellite images come with cloud masks. From the available data channels, only blue, green, red, and NIR bands are fed into the model. The CNN model was trained on 5300 image patches and validated on 1973 independent image patches. As the final output from our model, we extract a binary mask of cloud pixels and non-cloud pixels. The results are benchmarked against established cloud detection methods using standard accuracy metrics.

 

Rapid global warming is catalyzing widespread permafrost degradation in the Arctic, leading to destructive land-surface subsidence that destabilizes and deforms the ground. Consequently, human-built infrastructure constructed upon permafrost is currently at major risk of structural failure. Risk assessment frameworks that attempt to study this issue assume that precise information on the location and extent of infrastructure is known. However, complete, high-quality, uniform geospatial datasets of built infrastructure that are readily available for such scientific studies are lacking. While imagery-enabled mapping can fill this knowledge gap, the small size of individual structures and vast geographical extent of the Arctic necessitate large volumes of very high spatial resolution remote sensing imagery. Transforming this ‘big’ imagery data into ‘science-ready’ information demands highly automated image analysis pipelines driven by advanced computer vision algorithms. Despite this, previous fine resolution studies have been limited to manual digitization of features on locally confined scales. Therefore, this exploratory study serves as the first investigation into fully automated analysis of sub-meter spatial resolution satellite imagery for automated detection of Arctic built infrastructure. We tasked the U-Net, a deep learning-based semantic segmentation model, with classifying different infrastructure types (residential, commercial, public, and industrial buildings, as well as roads) from commercial satellite imagery of Utqiagvik and Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. We also conducted a systematic experiment to understand how image augmentation can impact model performance when labeled training data is limited. When optimal augmentation methods were applied, the U-Net achieved an average F1 score of 0.83. Overall, our experimental findings show that the U-Net-based workflow is a promising method for automated Arctic built infrastructure detection that, combined with existing optimized workflows, such as MAPLE, could be expanded to map a multitude of infrastructure types spanning the pan-Arctic.

 

Commercial satellite sensors offer the luxury of mapping of individual permafrost features and their change over time. Deep learning convolutional neural nets (CNNs) demonstrate a remarkable success in automated image analysis. Inferential strengths ofCNNmodels are driven primarily by the quality and volume of hand-labeled training samples. Production of hand-annotated samples is a daunting task. This is particularly true for regional-scale mapping applications, such as permafrost feature detection across the Arctic. Image augmentation is a strategic data-space solution to synthetically inflate the size and quality of training samples by transforming the color space or geometric shape or by injecting noise. In this study, we systematically investigate the effectiveness of a spectrum of augmentation methods when applied toCNNalgorithms to recognize ice-wedge polygons from commercial satellite imagery. Our findings suggest that a list of augmentation methods (such as hue, saturation, and salt and pepper noise) can increase the model performance.