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Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced resolved images of the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) Sgr A* and M87*, which present the largest shadows on the sky. In the next decade, technological improvements and extensions to the array will enable access to a greater number of sources, unlocking studies of a larger population of SMBHs through direct imaging. In this paper, we identify 12 of the most promising sources beyond Sgr A* and M87* based on their angular size and millimeter flux density. For each of these sources, we make theoretical predictions for their observable properties by ray tracing general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models appropriately scaled to each target’s mass, distance, and flux density. We predict that these sources would have somewhat higher Eddington ratios than M87*, which may result in larger optical and Faraday depths than previous EHT targets. Despite this, we find that visibility amplitude size constraints can plausibly recover masses within a factor of 2, although the unknown jet contribution remains a significant uncertainty. We find that the linearly polarized structure evolves substantially with the Eddington ratio, with greater evolution at larger inclinations, complicating potential spin inferences for inclined sources. We discuss the importance of 345 GHz observations, milli-Jansky baseline sensitivity, and independent inclination constraints for future observations with upgrades to the EHT through ground updates with the next-generation EHT program and extensions to space through the black hole Explorer. 

Abstract Frequency phase transfer (FPT) is a technique designed to increase coherence and sensitivity in radio interferometry by making use of the nondispersive nature of the troposphere to calibrate high-frequency data using solutions derived at a lower frequency. While the Korean very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) network has pioneered the use of simultaneous multiband systems for routine FPT up to an observing frequency of 130 GHz, this technique remains largely untested in the (sub)millimeter regime. A recent effort has been made to outfit dual-band systems at (sub)millimeter observatories participating in the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and to test the feasibility and performance of FPT up to the observing frequencies of the EHT. We present the results of simultaneous dual-frequency observations conducted in 2024 January on an Earth-sized baseline between the IRAM 30-m in Spain and the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) and Submillimeter Array (SMA) in Hawai‘i. We performed simultaneous observations at 86 and 215 GHz on the bright sources J0958+6533 and OJ 287, with strong detections obtained at both frequencies. We observe a strong correlation between the interferometric phases at the two frequencies, matching the trend expected for atmospheric fluctuations and demonstrating for the first time the viability of FPT for VLBI at a wavelength of  ∼1 millimeter. We show that the application of FPT systematically increases the 215 GHz coherence on all averaging timescales. In addition, the use of the colocated JCMT and SMA as a single dual-frequency station demonstrates the feasibility of paired-antenna FPT for VLBI for the first time, with implications for future array capabilities (e.g., Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array subarraying and ngVLA calibration strategies). 

Abstract Reconstructing images from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of M87*, the supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy M87, depends on a prior to impose desired image statistics. However, given the impossibility of directly observing black holes, there is no clear choice for a prior. We present a framework for flexibly designing a range of priors, each bringing different biases to the image reconstruction. These priors can be weak (e.g., impose only basic natural-image statistics) or strong (e.g., impose assumptions of black hole structure). Our framework uses Bayesian inference with score-based priors, which are data-driven priors arising from a deep generative model that can learn complicated image distributions. Using our Bayesian imaging approach with sophisticated data-driven priors, we can assess how visual features and uncertainty of reconstructed images change depending on the prior. In addition to simulated data, we image the real EHT M87* data and discuss how recovered features are influenced by the choice of prior. 

Abstract Measuring the properties of black hole images has the potential to constrain deviations from general relativity on horizon scales. Of particular interest is the ellipticity of the ring that is sensitive to the underlying spacetime. In 2019, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) produced the first-ever image of a black hole on horizon scales. Here, we reanalyze the M87* EHT 2017 data using Bayesian imaging (BI) techniques, constructing a posterior of the ring shape. We find that BI recovers the true on-sky ring shape more reliably than the original imaging methods used in 2019. As a result, we find that M87*'s ring ellipticity is ${0.09}_{-0.06}^{+0.07}$and is consistent with the measured ellipticity from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations. 

Abstract Though the time-domain millimeter sky is yet to be well characterized, the scarcity of millimeter observing resources in the world at present hampers progress toward it. In efforts to bolster the exploration of millimeter transients, we present the Stokes Polarization Radio Interferometer for Time-Domain Experiments (SPRITEly). Located at the Owens Valley Radio Observatory, SPRITEly is currently deployed as a two-element short-baseline 90 GHz interferometer uniquely focused on monitoring bright variable millimeter-continuum sources. We leverage two existing 10.4 m antennas and their existing receiver systems to begin, but we make significant upgrades to the back-end system during the commissioning process. With the ability to achieve rms noise of a few mJy, we plan to monitor known variable sources along with new nearby transients detected from optical surveys at high cadence, with the goal of producing well-sampled light curves. Interpreting these data in conjunction with multiwavelength observations stands to provide insight into the physical properties of the sources that produce transient millimeter emission. We present commissioning and early-science observations that demonstrate the performance of the instrument, including observations of the flaring BL Lac object S2 0109+22 and a periastron passage of the binary T Tauri system DQ Tau. 

Abstract We propose an analytic dual-cone accretion model for horizon-scale images of the cores of low-luminosity active galactic nuclei, including those observed by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). Our model is of synchrotron emission from an axisymmetric, magnetized plasma, constrained to flow within two oppositely oriented cones that are aligned with the black hole’s spin axis. We show this model can accurately reproduce images of a variety of time-averaged general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations and that it accurately recovers the black hole spin, orientation, emission scale height, peak emission radius, and fluid flow direction from these simulations within a Bayesian inference framework using radio interferometric data. We show that nontrivial topologies in the images of relativistic accretion flows around black holes can result in nontrivial multimodal solutions when applied to observations with a sparse array, such as the EHT 2017 observations of M87*. The presence of these degeneracies underscores the importance of employing Bayesian techniques to adequately sample the posterior space for the interpretation of EHT measurements. We fit our model to the EHT observations of M87* and find a 95% highest posterior density interval for the mass-to-distance ratio ofθ_g∈ (2.84, 3.75)μas, and give an inclination ofθ_o∈ (11°, 24°). These new measurements are consistent with mass measurements from the EHT and stellar dynamical estimates and with the spin axis inclination inferred from properties of the M87* jet. 

Abstract Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of the horizon-scale emission around the Galactic center supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) favor accretion flow models with a jet component. However, this jet has not been conclusively detected. Using the “best-bet” models of Sgr A* from the EHT Collaboration, we assess whether this nondetection is expected for current facilities and explore the prospects of detecting a jet with very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) at four frequencies: 86, 115, 230, and 345 GHz. We produce synthetic image reconstructions for current and next-generation VLBI arrays at these frequencies that include the effects of interstellar scattering, optical depth, and time variability. We find that no existing VLBI arrays are expected to detect the jet in these best-bet models, consistent with observations to date. We show that next-generation VLBI arrays at 86 and 115 GHz—in particular, the EHT after upgrades through the ngEHT program and the ngVLA—successfully capture the jet in our tests due to improvements in instrument sensitivity and (u,v) coverage at spatial scales critical to jet detection. These results highlight the potential of enhanced VLBI capabilities in the coming decade to reveal the crucial properties of Sgr A* and its interaction with the Galactic center environment. 

Abstract The interaction between the supermassive black hole at the centre of the Milky Way, Sagittarius A^*, and its accretion disk occasionally produces high-energy flares seen in X-ray, infrared and radio. One proposed mechanism that produces flares is the formation of compact, bright regions that appear within the accretion disk and close to the event horizon. Understanding these flares provides a window into accretion processes. Although sophisticated simulations predict the formation of these flares, their structure has yet to be recovered by observations. Here we show a three-dimensional reconstruction of an emission flare recovered from Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array light curves observed on 11 April 2017. Our recovery shows compact, bright regions at a distance of roughly six times the event horizon. Moreover, it suggests a clockwise rotation in a low-inclination orbital plane, consistent with prior studies by GRAVITY and the Event Horizon Telescope. To recover this emission structure, we solve an ill-posed tomography problem by integrating a neural three-dimensional representation with a gravitational model for black holes. Although the recovery is subject to, and sometimes sensitive to, the model assumptions, under physically motivated choices, our results are stable and our approach is successful on simulated data. 

Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has imaged two supermassive black holes, Messier 87* (M87*) and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), using very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI). The theoretical analyses of each source suggest magnetically arrested disk (MAD) accretion viewed at modest inclination. These MADs exhibit rotationally symmetric polarization of synchrotron emission caused by symmetries of their ordered magnetic fields. We leverage these symmetries to study the detectability of the black hole photon ring, which imposes known antisymmetries in polarization. In this Letter, we propose a novel observational strategy based on coherent baseline averaging of polarization ratios On a rotating basis to detect the photon ring with 345 GHz VLBI from the Earth’s surface. Using synthetic observations from a likely future EHT, we find a reversal in polarimetric phases on long baselines that reveals the presence of the Sgr A* photon ring in a MAD system at 345 GHz, a critical frequency for lengthening baselines and overcoming interstellar scattering. We use our synthetic data and analysis pipeline to estimate requirements for the EHT using a new metric: SNR_PR, the signal-to-noise ratio of this polarimetric reversal signal. We identify long, coherent integrations using frequency phase transfer as a critical enabling technique for the detection of the photon ring and predict a SNR_PR∼ 2−3 detection using proposed next-generation Event Horizon Telescope parameters and currently favored models for the Sgr A* accretion flow. We find that higher sensitivity, rather than denser Fourier sampling, is the most critical requirement for polarimetric detection of the photon ring. 

Abstract Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) provides the highest-resolution images in astronomy. The sharpest resolution is nominally achieved at the highest frequencies, but as the observing frequency increases, so too does the atmospheric contribution to the system noise, degrading the sensitivity of the array and hampering detection. In this paper, we explore the limits of high-frequency VLBI observations usingngehtsim, a new tool for generating realistic synthetic data.ngehtsimuses detailed historical atmospheric models to simulate observing conditions, and it employs heuristic visibility detection criteria that emulate single- and multifrequency VLBI calibration strategies. We demonstrate the fidelity ofngehtsim’spredictions using a comparison with existing 230 GHz data taken by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), and we simulate the expected performance of EHT observations at 345 GHz. Though the EHT achieves a nearly 100% detection rate at 230 GHz, our simulations indicate that it should expect substantially poorer performance at 345 GHz; in particular, observations of M87* at 345 GHz are predicted to achieve detection rates of ≲20% that may preclude imaging. Increasing the array sensitivity through wider bandwidths and/or longer integration times—as enabled through, e.g., the simultaneous multifrequency upgrades envisioned for the next-generation EHT—can improve the 345 GHz prospects and yield detection levels that are comparable to those at 230 GHz. M87* and Sgr A* observations carried out in the atmospheric window around 460 GHz could expect to regularly achieve multiple detections on long baselines, but analogous observations at 690 and 875 GHz consistently obtain almost no detections at all.