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Solar flares, especially the M- and X-class flares, are often associated with coronal mass ejections. They are the most important sources of space weather effects, which can severely impact the near-Earth environment. Thus it is essential to forecast flares (especially the M- and X-class ones) to mitigate their destructive and hazardous consequences. Here, we introduce several statistical and machine-learning approaches to the prediction of an active region’s (AR) flare index (FI) that quantifies the flare productivity of an AR by taking into account the number of different class flares within a certain time interval. Specifically, our sample includes 563 ARs that appeared on the solar disk from 2010 May to 2017 December. The 25 magnetic parameters, provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, characterize coronal magnetic energy stored in ARs by proxy and are used as the predictors. We investigate the relationship between these SHARP parameters and the FI of ARs with a machine-learning algorithm (spline regression) and the resampling method (Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique for Regression with Gaussian Noise). Based on the established relationship, we are able to predict the value of FIs for a given AR within the next 1 day period. Compared with other four popular machine-learning algorithms, our methods improve the accuracy of FI prediction, especially for a large FI. In addition, we sort the importance of SHARP parameters by the Borda count method calculated from the ranks that are rendered by nine different machine-learning methods.

 

We present a multi-instrument study of the two precursor brightenings prior to the M6.5 flare (SOL2015-06-22T18:23) in the NOAA Active Region 12371, with a focus on the temperature (T), electron number density (n), and emission measure (EM). The data used in this study were obtained from four instruments with a variety of wavelengths, i.e., the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), in six extreme ultraviolet (EUV) passbands; the Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA) in microwave (MW); the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) in hard X-rays (HXR); and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) in soft X-rays (SXR). We compare the temporal variations ofT,n, and EM derived from the different data sets. Here are the key results. (1) GOES SXR and AIA EUV have almost identical EM variations (1.5–3 × 10⁴⁸cm⁻³) and very similarTvariations, from 8 to 15 million Kelvin (MK). (2) Listed from highest to lowest, EOVSA MW provides the highest temperature variations (15–60 MK), followed by RHESSI HXR (10–24 MK), then GOES SXR and AIA EUV (8–15 MK). (3) The EM variation from the RHESSI HXR measurements is always less than the values from AIA EUV and GOES SXR by at most 20 times. The number density variation from EOVSA MW is greater than the value from AIA EUV by at most 100 times. The results quantitatively describe the differences in the thermal parameters at the precursor phase, as measured by different instruments operating at different wavelength regimes and for different emission mechanisms.

 

Magnetic flux ropes are the centerpiece of solar eruptions. Direct measurements for the magnetic field of flux ropes are crucial for understanding the triggering and energy release processes, yet they remain heretofore elusive. Here we report microwave imaging spectroscopy observations of an M1.4-class solar flare that occurred on 2017 September 6, using data obtained by the Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array. This flare event is associated with a partial eruption of a twisted filament observed in Hαby the Goode Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory. The extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray signatures of the event are generally consistent with the standard scenario of eruptive flares, with the presence of double flare ribbons connected by a bright flare arcade. Intriguingly, this partial eruption event features a microwave counterpart, whose spatial and temporal evolution closely follow the filament seen in Hαand EUV. The spectral properties of the microwave source are consistent with nonthermal gyrosynchrotron radiation. Using spatially resolved microwave spectral analysis, we derive the magnetic field strength along the filament spine, which ranges from 600 to 1400 Gauss from its apex to the legs. The results agree well with the nonlinear force-free magnetic model extrapolated from the preflare photospheric magnetogram. We conclude that the microwave counterpart of the erupting filament is likely due to flare-accelerated electrons injected into the filament-hosting magnetic flux rope cavity following the newly reconnected magnetic field lines.

 

Abstract The solar active region NOAA 12887 produced a strong X1.0 flare on 2021 October 28, which exhibits X-shaped flare ribbons and a circle-shaped erupting filament. To understand the eruption process with these characteristics, we conducted a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamics simulation using a nonlinear force-free field of the active region about an hour before the flare as the initial condition. Our simulation reproduces the filament eruption observed in the H α images of GONG and the 304 Å images of SDO/AIA, and suggests that two mechanisms can possibly contribute to the magnetic eruption. One is the torus instability of the preexisting magnetic flux rope (MFR) and the other is upward pushing by magnetic loops newly formed below the MFR via continuous magnetic reconnection between two sheared magnetic arcades. The presence of this reconnection is evidenced by the SDO/AIA observations of the 1600 Å brightening in the footpoints of the sheared arcades at the flare onset. To clarify which process is more essential for the eruption, we performed an experimental simulation in which the reconnection between the sheared field lines is suppressed. In this case too, the MFR could erupt, but at a much reduced rising speed. We interpret this result as indicating that the eruption is not only driven by the torus instability, but additionally accelerated by newly formed and rising magnetic loops under continuous reconnection. 

Abstract This work analyzes the Hall magnetohydrodynamics (HMHD) and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical simulations of a flaring solar active region as a test bed while idealizing the coronal Alfvén speed to be less by two orders of magnitude. HMHD supports faster magnetic reconnection and shows richer complexity in magnetic field line evolution compared to the MHD. The magnetic reconnections triggering the flare are explored by numerical simulations augmented with relevant multiwavelength observations. The initial coronal magnetic field is constructed by non-force-free extrapolation of photospheric vector magnetic field. Magnetic structure involved in the flare is identified to be a flux rope, with its overlying magnetic field lines constituting the quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs) along with a three-dimensional null point and a null line. Compared to the MHD simulation, the HMHD simulation shows a higher and faster ascent of the rope together with the overlying field lines, which further reconnect at the QSL located higher up in the corona. The footpoints of the field lines match better with the observations for the HMHD case, with the central part of the flare ribbon located at the chromosphere. Additionally, field lines are found to rotate in a circular pattern in the HMHD, whereas no such rotation is seen in the MHD results. Interestingly, plasma is also observed to be rotating in a cospatial chromospheric region, which makes the HMHD simulation more credible. Based on the aforementioned agreements, HMHD simulation is found to agree better with observations and thus opens up a novel avenue to explore. 

Abstract This study presents a C3.0 flare observed by the Big Bear Solar Observatory/Goode Solar Telescope (GST) and Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) on 2018 May 28 around 17:10 UT. The Near-Infrared Imaging Spectropolarimeter of GST was set to spectral imaging mode to scan five spectral positions at ±0.8, ±0.4 Å and line center of He i 10830 Å. At the flare ribbon’s leading edge, the line is observed to undergo enhanced absorption, while the rest of the ribbon is observed to be in emission. When in emission, the contrast compared to the preflare ranges from about 30% to nearly 100% at different spectral positions. Two types of spectra, “convex” shape with higher intensity at line core and “concave” shape with higher emission in the line wings, are found at the trailing and peak flaring areas, respectively. On the ribbon front, negative contrasts, or enhanced absorption, of about ∼10%–20% appear in all five wavelengths. This observation strongly suggests that the negative flares observed in He i 10830 Å with mono-filtergram previously were not caused by pure Doppler shifts of this spectral line. Instead, the enhanced absorption appears to be a consequence of flare-energy injection, namely nonthermal collisional ionization of helium caused by the precipitation of high-energy electrons, as found in our recent numerical modeling results. In addition, though not strictly simultaneous, observations of Mg ii from the IRIS spacecraft, show an obvious central reversal pattern at the locations where enhanced absorption of He i 10830 Å is seen, which is consistent with previous observations. 

Abstract In recent years, the new physics of the Sun has been revealed using advanced data with high spatial and temporal resolutions. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory has accumulated abundant observation data for the study of solar activity with sufficient cadence, but their spatial resolution (about 1″) is not enough to analyze the subarcsecond structure of the Sun. On the other hand, high-resolution observation from large-aperture ground-based telescopes, such as the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope (GST) at the Big Bear Solar Observatory, can achieve a much higher resolution on the order of 0.″1 (about 70 km). However, these high-resolution data only became available in the past 10 yr, with a limited time period during the day and with a very limited field of view. The Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) has greatly improved the perceptual quality of images in image translation tasks, and the self-attention mechanism can retrieve rich information from images. This paper uses HMI and GST images to construct a precisely aligned data set based on the scale-invariant feature transform algorithm and t0 reconstruct the HMI continuum images with four times better resolution. Neural networks based on the conditional GAN and self-attention mechanism are trained to restore the details of solar active regions and to predict the reconstruction error. The experimental results show that the reconstructed images are in good agreement with GST images, demonstrating the success of resolution improvement using machine learning. 

Abstract We present both the observation and the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulation of the M2.4 flare (SOL2017-07-14T02:09) of NOAA active region (AR) 12665 with a goal to identify its initiation mechanism. The observation by the Atmospheric Image Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows that the major topology of the AR is a sigmoidal configuration associated with a filament/flux rope. A persistent emerging magnetic flux and the rotation of the sunspot in the core region were observed with Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the SDO on the timescale of hours before and during the flare, which may provide free magnetic energy needed for the flare/coronal mass ejection (CME). A high-lying coronal loop is seen moving outward in AIA EUV passbands, which is immediately followed by the impulsive phase of the flare. We perform an MHD simulation using the potential magnetic field extrapolated from the measured pre-flare photospheric magnetic field as initial conditions and adopting the observed sunspot rotation and flux emergence as the driving boundary conditions. In our simulation, a sigmoidal magnetic structure and an overlying magnetic flux rope (MFR) form as a response to the imposed sunspot rotation, and the MFR rises to erupt like a CME. These simulation results in good agreement with the observation suggest that the formation of the MFR due to the sunspot rotation and the resulting torus and kink instabilities were essential to the initiation of this flare and the associated coronal mass ejection.