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摘要 2020年6-7月, 长江流域出现了创纪录的持续性特大暴雨. 观测资料表明, 与西北太平洋异常反气旋 (WNPAC) 相关的南风异常和与东北亚异常高压相联系的东北风异常交汇, 从而导致该持续性暴雨的发生. 进一步的观测和模式研究表明, 超强的 WNPAC 由赤道太平洋的 La Niña 型海温异常和热带印度洋的暖海温异常共同强迫产生. 与传统的中太平洋型 (CP) El Niño 的缓慢衰减不同, 2020 年初 CP El Niño 快速衰减, 到初夏演变为 La Niña. ENSO 的快速位相转换对 WNPAC 的形成发挥着关键的作用. 同时, 与 CP El Niño 相关的印度洋年际尺度海温异常叠加了年代际分量, 导致热带印度洋海温出现极端增暖. 数值试验表明, 热带印度洋和太平洋的热源对 WNPAC 的形成和维持均有贡献. 持续的东北亚高压异常则是中纬度静止 Rossby 波列的一部分, 由印度、 热带东太平洋和热带大西洋的热源共同强迫产生. 

Abstract Based on observational data analyses and idealized modeling experiments, we investigated the distinctive impacts of central Pacific (CP-) El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP-) El Niño on the Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in austral spring (September to November). The tropical heat sources associated with EP-El Niño and the co-occurred positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) excite two branches of Rossby wave trains that propagate southeastward, causing an anomalous anticyclone over the eastern Ross-Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas. Anomalous northerly (southerly) wind west (east) of the anomalous anticyclone favor poleward (offshore) movements of sea ice, resulting in a sea ice loss (growth) in the eastern Ross-Amundsen Seas (the Bellingshausen-Weddell Seas). Meanwhile, the anomalous northerly (southerly) wind also advected warmer and wetter (colder and drier) air into the eastern Ross-Amundsen Seas (the Bellingshausen-Weddell Seas), causing surface warming (cooling) through the enhanced (reduced) surface heat fluxes and thus contributing to the sea ice melting (growth). CP-El Niño, however, forces a Rossby wave train that generates an anomalous anticyclone in the eastern Ross-Amundsen Seas, 20° west of that caused by EP-El Niño. Consequently, a positive SIC anomaly occurs in the Bellingshausen Sea. A dry version of the Princeton atmospheric general circulation model was applied to verify the roles of anomalous heating in the tropics. The result showed that EP-El Niño can remotely induce an anomalous anticyclone and associated dipole temperature pattern in the Antarctic region, whereas CP-El Niño generates a similar anticyclone pattern with its location shift westward by 20° in longitudes. 

Abstract Through the diagnosis of 29 Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) experiments from the CMIP5 inter-comparison project, we investigate the impact of the mean state on simulated western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) during El Niño decaying summer. The result indicates that the inter-model difference of the JJA mean precipitation in the Indo-western Pacific warm pool is responsible for the difference of the WNPAC. During the decaying summer of an Eastern Pacific (EP) type El Niño, a model that simulates excessive mean rainfall over the western North Pacific (WNP) reproduces a stronger WNPAC response, through an enhanced local convection-circulation-moisture feedback. The intensity of the simulated WNPAC during the decay summer of a Central Pacific (CP) type El Niño, on the other hand, depends on the mean precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The distinctive WNPAC-mean precipitation relationships between the EP and CP El Niño result from different anomalous SST patterns in the WNP. While the local SST anomaly plays an active role in maintaining the WNPAC during the EP El Niño, it plays a passive role during the CP El Niño. As a result, only the mean-state precipitation/moisture field in the tropical Indian Ocean modulates the circulation anomaly in the WNP in the latter case. 

Abstract The cause of southward shift of anomalous zonal wind in the central equatorial Pacific (CEP) during ENSO mature winter was investigated through observational analyses and numerical model experiments. Based on an antisymmetric zonal momentum budget diagnosis using daily ERA-Interim data, a two-step physical mechanism is proposed. The first step involves advection of the zonal wind anomaly by the climatological mean meridional wind. The second step involves the development of an antisymmetric mode in the CEP, which promotes a positive contribution to the observed zonal wind tendency by the pressure gradient and Coriolis forces. Two positive feedbacks are responsible for the growth of the antisymmetric mode. The first involves the moisture–convection–circulation feedback, and the second involves the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. General circulation model experiments further demonstrated that the boreal winter background state is critical in generating the southward shift, and a northward shift of the zonal wind anomaly is found when the same SST anomaly is specified in boreal summer background state. 

Abstract The complex interaction between the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is further investigated in this study, with a focus on the impacts of the IOD on ENSO in the subsequent year [ENSO(+1)]. The interaction between the IOD and the concurrent ENSO [ENSO(0)] can be summarized as follows: ENSO(0) can trigger and enhance the IOD, while the IOD can enhance ENSO(0) and accelerate its demise. Regarding the impacts of IOD(0) on the subsequent ENSO(+1), it is revealed that the IOD can lead to anomalous SST cooling patterns over the equatorial Pacific after the winter following the IOD, indicating the formation of a La Niña–like pattern in the subsequent year. While the SST cooling tendency associated with a positive IOD is attributable primarily to net heat flux (thermodynamic processes) from autumn to the ensuing spring, after the ensuing spring the dominant contribution comes from oceanic processes (dynamic processes) instead. From autumn to the ensuing spring, the downward shortwave flux response contributes the most to SST cooling over the central and eastern Pacific, due to the cloud–radiation–SST feedback. From the ensuing winter to the ensuing summer, changes in latent heat flux (LHF) are important for SST cooling, indicating that the release of LHF from the ocean into the atmosphere increases due to strong evaporation and leads to SST cooling through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. The wind stress response and thermocline shoaling verify that local Bjerknes feedback is crucial for the initiation of La Niña in the later stage. 

Abstract The Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) in tropical Atlantic during boreal spring and summer shows two dominant modes: a basin-warming and a meridional dipole mode, respectively. Observational and coupled model simulations indicate that the former induces a Pacific La Niña in the succeeding winter whereas the latter cannot. The basin-warming forcing induces a La Niña through a Kelvin wave response and the associated wind-evaporation-SST-convection (WESC) feedback over the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and Maritime Continent (MC). Anomalous Kelvin wave easterly interacts with the monsoonal westerly, leading to a warm SSTA and a northwest-southeast oriented heating anomaly in NIO/MC, which further induces easterly and cold SSTA over the equatorial Pacific. In contrast, the dipole forcing has little impact on the Indian and Pacific Oceans due to the offsetting of the Kelvin wave to the asymmetric Atlantic heating. Further observational and modeling studies towards the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Equatorial Atlantic (EA) SSTA modes indicate that the TNA (EA) forcing induces a CP- (EP-) type ENSO. In both cases, the Kelvin wave response and the WESC feedback over the NIO/MC are important in conveying the Atlantic’s impact. The difference lies in distinctive Rossby wave responses – A marked westerly anomaly appears in the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) for the TNA forcing (due to its westward location) while no significant wind response is observed in EEP for the EA forcing. The westerly anomaly prevents a cooling tendency in EEP through anomalous zonal and vertical advection according to a mixed-layer heat budget analysis.