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Abstract Convergent estuaries have been shortened by dam‐like structures worldwide. Here, we evaluate 31 long‐term water level stations and use a semi‐analytical tide model to investigate how landward‐funneling and a dam influence tidal and storm surge propagation in the greater Charleston Harbor region, South Carolina, where three rivers meet: the Ashley, Cooper, and Wando. Results show that the phase speed and amplification of the principal tidal harmonic (M2) is larger than other long waves such as storm surge (∼1–4 days) and setup‐setdown (∼4–10 days). Further landward, all waves attenuate, but, as they approach the dam on the Cooper River, a frequency dependent response in amplitude and phase progression occurs. A semi‐analytical tidal model shows that funneling and the presence of a dam amplify tidal waves through wave interference from partial and full reflection, respectively. The different phase progressions of the reflected waves interact with the incident wave to increase or decrease the summed overall wave amplitude. Using a friction‐convergence parameter space, we demonstrate that dominant tides in 23 estuaries and the tidal, storm surge, and setup‐setdown waves in the Cooper River can be delineated into three regimes that describe landward amplification or attenuation associated with funneling, a dam, or both. The regime of each tidal constituent is consistent but can change with the duration and height of each storm surge event; dam associated wave interference can attenuate long‐duration events, while the most intense events (short duration, high water) are amplified by dams more than funneling and greatly increase flood exposure. 

Abstract Sea‐level rise is leading to increasingly frequent coastal floods globally. Recent research shows that changes in tidal properties and storm surge magnitudes can further exacerbate sea‐level rise‐related increases in flood frequencies. However, such non‐stationarity in tide and storm surge statistics are largely neglected in existing coastal flood projection methodologies. Here we develop a framework to explore the effect that different realizations of various sources of uncertainty have on projections of coastal flood frequencies, including changes in tidal range and storminess. Our projection methodology captures how observed flood rates depend on how storm surges coincide with tidal extremes. We show that higher flood rates and earlier emergence of chronic flooding are associated with larger sea‐level rise rates, lower flood thresholds, and increases in tidal range and skew surge magnitudes. Smaller sea‐level rise rates, higher flood thresholds and decreases in sea level variability lead to commensurately lower flood rates. Percentagewise, changes in tidal amplitudes generally have a much larger impact on flood frequencies than equivalent percentagewise changes in storm surge magnitudes. We explore several implications of these findings. Firstly, understanding future local changes in storm surges and tides is required to fully quantify future flood hazards. Secondly, existing hazard assessments may underestimate future flood rates as changes in tides are not considered. Finally, identifying the flood frequencies and severities relevant to local coastal managers is imperative to develop useable and policy‐relevant projections for decisionmakers. 

Abstract Water levels in deltas and estuaries vary on multiple timescales due to coastal, hydrologic, meteorologic, geologic, and anthropogenic factors. These diverse factors increase the uncertainty of, and may bias, relative sea level rise (RSLR) estimates. Here, we evaluate RSLR in San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, USA by applying a physics-based, nonlinear regression to 50 tide gauges that determines the spatially varying controls on daily mean water level for water years 2004–2022. Results show that elevated river flow and pumping (99th percentile) raise water level up to 6 m and lower it up to 0.35 m, respectively, and coastal water level variations are attenuated by 30-60% within the Delta. Strong westerly winds raise water level up to 0.17 m, and tidal-fluvial interaction during spring tides and low discharge raises water level up to 0.15 m. Removal of these interfering factors greatly improves RSLR estimates, narrowing 95% confidence intervals by 89–99% and removing bias due to recent drought. Results show that RSLR is spatially heterogeneous, with rates ranging from − 2.8 to 12.9 mm y^-1(95% uncertainties < 1 mm y^-1). RSLR also exceeds coastal SLR of 3.3 mm y^-1in San Francisco at 85% of stations. Thus, RSLR in the Delta is strongly influenced by local vertical land motion and will likely produce significantly different, location-dependent future flood risk trajectories. 

Abstract Subsidence after a subduction zone earthquake can cause major changes in estuarine bathymetry. Here, we quantify the impacts of earthquake‐induced subsidence on hydrodynamics and habitat distributions in a major system, the lower Columbia River Estuary, using a hydrodynamic and habitat model. Model results indicate that coseismic subsidence increases tidal range, with the smallest changes at the coast and a maximum increase of ∼10% in a region of topographic convergence. All modeled scenarios reduce intertidal habitat by 24%–25% and shifts ∼93% of estuarine wetlands to lower‐elevation habitat bands. Incorporating dynamic effects of tidal change from subsidence yields higher estimates of remaining habitat by multiples of 0–3.7, dependent on the habitat type. The persistent tidal change and chronic habitat disturbance after an earthquake poses strong challenges for estuarine management and wetland restoration planning, particularly when coupled with future sea‐level rise effects. 

Abstract Decreases in shallow-water habitat area (SWHA) in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary (LCRE) have adversely affected salmonid populations. We investigate the causes by hindcasting SWHA from 1928 to 2004, system-wide, based on daily higher high water (HHW) and system hypsometry. Physics-based regression models are used to represent HHW along the system as a function of river inflow, tides, and coastal processes, and hypsometry is used to estimate the associated SWHA. Scenario modeling is employed to attribute SWHA losses to levees, flow regulation, diversion, navigational development, and climate-induced hydrologic change, for subsidence scenarios of up to 2 m, and for 0.5 m fill. For zero subsidence, the system-wide annual-average loss of SWHA is 55 ± 5%, or 51 × 10⁵ ha/year; levees have caused the largest decrease ($${54}_{-14}^{+5}$$ ${54}_{-14}^{+5}$%, or ~ 50 × 10⁵ ha/year). The loss in SWHA due to operation of the hydropower system is small, but spatially and seasonally variable. During the spring freshet critical to juvenile salmonids, the total SWHA loss was$${63}_{-3}^{+2}$$ ${63}_{-3}^{+2}$%, with the hydropower system causing losses of 5–16% (depending on subsidence). Climate change and navigation have caused SWHA losses of$${5}_{-5}^{+16}$$ $5_{-5}^{+16}$% and$${4}_{-6}^{+14}$$ $4_{-6}^{+14}$%, respectively, but with high spatial variability; irrigation impacts have been small. Uncertain subsidence causes most of the uncertainty in estimates; the sum of the individual factors exceeds the total loss, because factors interact. Any factor that reduces mean or peak flows (reservoirs, diversion, and climate change) or alters tides and along-channel slope (navigation) becomes more impactful as assumed historical elevations are increased to account for subsidence, while levees matter less.