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  1. Abstract

    Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KH) waves have been broadly shown to affect the growth of hydrometeors within a region of falling precipitation, but formation and growth from KH waves at cloud top needs further attention. Here, we present detailed observations of cloud-top KH waves that produced a snow plume that extended to the surface. Airborne transects of cloud radar aligned with range height indicator scans from ground-based precipitation radar track the progression and intensity of the KH wave kinetics and precipitation. In situ cloud probes and surface disdrometer measurements are used to quantify the impact of the snow plume on the composition of an underlying supercooled liquid water (SLW) cloud and the snowfall observed at the surface. KH wavelengths of 1.5 km consisted of ∼750-m-wide up- and downdrafts. A distinct fluctus region appeared as a wave-breaking cloud top where the fastest updraft was observed to exceed 5 m s−1. Relatively weaker updrafts of 0.5–1.5 m s−1beneath the fluctus and partially overlapping the dendritic growth zone were associated with steep gradients in reflectivity of −5 to 20 dBZein as little as 500-m depths due to rapid growth of pristine planar ice crystals. The falling snow removed ∼80% of the SLW content from the underlying cloud and led to a twofold increase in surface liquid equivalent snowfall rate from 0.6 to 1.3 mm h−1. This paper presents the first known study of cloud-top KH waves producing snowfall with observations of increased snowfall rates at the surface.

     
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  2. Abstract

    As part of the analysis following the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Storms (SNOWIE) project, the ice water content (IWC) in ice and mixed-phase clouds is retrieved from airborne Wyoming Cloud Radar (WCR) measurements aboard the University of Wyoming King Air (UWKA), which has a suite of integrated in situ IWC, optical array probes, and remote sensing measurements, and it provides a unique dataset for this algorithm development and evaluation. A sensitivity study with different idealized ice particle habits shows that the retrieved IWC with aggregate ice particle habit agrees the best with the in situ measurement, especially in ice or ice-dominated mixed-phase clouds with a correlation coefficient (rr) of 0.91 and a bias of close to 0. For mixed-phase clouds with ice fraction ratio less than 0.8, the variances of IWC estimates increase (rr = 0.76) and the retrieved mean IWC is larger than in situ IWC by a factor of 2. This is found to be related to the uncertainty of in situ measurements, the large cloud inhomogeneity, and the retrieval assumption uncertainty. The simulated reflectivity Ze and IWC relationships assuming three idealized ice particle habits and measured particle size distributions show that hexagonal columns with the same Ze have a lower IWC than aggregates, whose Ze–IWC relation is more consistent with the observed WCR Ze and in situ IWC relation in those clouds. The 2D stereo probe (2DS) images also indicate that ice particle habit transition occurs in orographic mixed-phase clouds; hence, the retrieved IWC assuming modified gamma particle size distribution (PSD) of aggregate particles tends to have a greater bias in this kind of clouds.

     
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  3. Abstract Airborne vertically profiling Doppler radar data and output from a ∼1-km-grid-resolution numerical simulation are used to examine how relatively small-scale terrain ridges (∼10–25 km apart and ∼0.5–1.0 km above the surrounding valleys) impact cross-mountain flow, cloud processes, and surface precipitation in deep stratiform precipitation systems. The radar data were collected along fixed flight tracks aligned with the wind, about 100 km long between the Snake River Plain and the Idaho Central Mountains, as part of the 2017 Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime clouds: the Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE). Data from repeat flight legs are composited in order to suppress transient features and retain the effect of the underlying terrain. Simulations closely match observed series of terrain-driven deep gravity waves, although the simulated wave amplitude is slightly exaggerated. The deep waves produce pockets of supercooled liquid water in the otherwise ice-dominated clouds (confirmed by flight-level observations and the model) and distort radar-derived hydrometeor trajectories. Snow particles aloft encounter several wave updrafts and downdrafts before reaching the ground. No significant wavelike modulation of radar reflectivity or model ice water content occurs. The model does indicate substantial localized precipitation enhancement (1.8–3.0 times higher than the mean) peaking just downwind of individual ridges, especially those ridges with the most intense wave updrafts, on account of shallow pockets of high liquid water content on the upwind side, leading to the growth of snow and graupel, falling out mostly downwind of the crest. Radar reflectivity values near the surface are complicated by snowmelt, but suggest a more modest enhancement downwind of individual ridges. Significance Statement Mountains in the midlatitude belt and elsewhere receive more precipitation than the surrounding lowlands. The mountain terrain often is complex, and it remains unclear exactly where this precipitation enhancement occurs, because weather radars are challenged by beam blockage and the gauge network is too sparse to capture the precipitation heterogeneity over complex terrain. This study uses airborne profiling radar and high-resolution numerical simulations for four winter storms over a series of ridges in Idaho. One key finding is that while instantaneous airborne radar transects of the cross-mountain flow, vertical drafts, and reflectivity contain much transient small-scale information, time-averaged transects look very much like the model transects. The model indicates substantial surface precipitation enhancement over terrain, peaking over and just downwind of individual ridges. Radar observations suggest less enhancement, but the radar-based assessment is uncertain. The second key conclusion is that, even though orographic gravity waves are felt all the way up into the upper troposphere, the orographic precipitation enhancement is due to processes very close to the terrain. 
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  4. Abstract In Part II, two classes of vertical motions, fixed (associated with vertically propagating gravity waves tied to flow over topography) and transient (associated primarily with vertical wind shear and conditional instability within passing weather systems), were diagnosed over the Payette River basin of Idaho during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE). This paper compares vertical motions retrieved from airborne Doppler radial velocity measurements with those from a 900-m-resolution model simulation to determine the impact of transient vertical motions on trajectories of ice particles initiated by airborne cloud seeding. An orographic forcing index, developed to compare vertical motion fields retrieved from the radar with the model, showed that fixed vertical motions were well resolved by the model while transient vertical motions were not. Particle trajectories were calculated for 75 cross-sectional pairs, each differing only by the observed and modeled vertical motion field. Wind fields and particle terminal velocities were otherwise identical in both trajectories so that the impact of transient vertical circulations on particle trajectories could be isolated. In 66.7% of flight-leg pairs, the distance traveled by particles in the model and observations differed by less than 5 km with transient features having minimal impact. In 9.3% of the pairs, model and observation trajectories landed within the ideal target seeding elevation range (>2000 m), whereas, in 77.3% of the pairs, both trajectories landed below the ideal target elevation. Particles in the observations and model descended into valleys on the mountains’ lee sides in 94.2% of cases in which particles traveled less than 37 km. 
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  5. Abstract Properties of frozen hydrometeors in clouds remain difficult to sense remotely. Estimates of number concentration, distribution shape, ice particle density, and ice water content are essential for connecting cloud processes to surface precipitation. Progress has been made with dual-frequency radars, but validation has been difficult because of lack of particle imaging and sizing observations collocated with the radar measurements. Here, data are used from two airborne profiling (up and down) radars, the W-band Wyoming Cloud Radar and the Ka-band Profiling Radar, allowing for Ka–W-band dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) profiles. The aircraft (the University of Wyoming King Air) also carried a suite of in situ cloud and precipitation probes. This arrangement is optimal for relating the “flight-level” DWR (an average from radar gates below and above flight level) to ice particle size distributions measured by in situ optical array probes, as well as bulk properties such as minimum snow particle density and ice water content. This comparison reveals a strong relationship between DWR and the ice particle median-volume diameter. An optimal range of DWR values ensures the highest retrieval confidence, bounded by the radars’ relative calibration and DWR saturation, found here to be about 2.5–7.5 dB. The DWR-defined size distribution shape is used with a Mie scattering model and an experimental mass–diameter relationship to test retrievals of ice particle concentration and ice water content. Comparison with flight-level cloud-probe data indicate good performance, allowing microphysical interpretations for the rest of the vertical radar transects. 
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  6. Abstract This essay is intended to provide stakeholders and news outlets with a plain-language summary of orographic cloud seeding research, new capabilities, and prospects. Specifically, we address the question of whether a widely practiced type of weather modification, glaciogenic seeding of orographic clouds throughout the cold season, can produce an economically useful increase in precipitation over a catchment-scale area. Our objective is to clarify current scientific understanding of how cloud seeding may affect precipitation, in terms that are more accessible than in the peer-reviewed literature. Public confidence that cloud seeding “works” is generally high in regions with operational seeding, notwithstanding decades of scientific reports indicating that the changes in precipitation are uncertain. Randomized seeding experiments have a solid statistical foundation and focus on the outcome, but, in light of the small seeding signal and the naturally noisy nature of precipitation, they generally require too many cases to be affordable, and therefore are discouraged. A complementary method, physical evaluation, examines changes in cloud and precipitation processes when seeding material is injected and yields insights into the most suitable ambient conditions. Recent physical evaluations have established a robust, well-documented scientific basis for glaciogenic seeding of cold-season orographic clouds to enhance precipitation. The challenge of seeding impact assessment remains, but evidence is provided that, thanks to recent significant progress in observational and computational capabilities, the research community is finally on track to be able to provide stakeholders with guidance on the likely quantitative precipitation impact of cloud seeding in their region. We recommend further process-level evaluations combined with highly resolved, well-constrained numerical simulations of seasonal cloud seeding. 
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  7. Rapp, Anita (Ed.)
    Updrafts in wintertime cloud systems over mountainous regions can be described as fixed, mechanically driven by the terrain under a given ambient wind and stability profile (i.e., vertically propagating gravity waves), and transient, related to vertical wind shear and conditional instability within passing weather systems. This analysis quantifies the magnitude of fixed and transient updraft structures over the Payette River Basin sampled during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: the Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE). Vertical motions were retrieved from Wyoming Cloud Radar measurements of radial velocity using the algorithm presented in Part 1. Transient circulations were removed and fixed orographic circulations were quantified by averaging vertical circulations along repeated cross sections over the same terrain during the campaign. Fixed orographic vertical circulations had magnitudes of 0.3-0.5 m s-1. These fixed vertical circulations comprised a background circulation in which transient circulations were embedded. Transient vertical circulations are shown to be associated with transient wave motions, cloud top generating cells, convection, and turbulence. Representative transient vertical circulations are illustrated and data from rawinsondes over the Payette River Basin are used to infer the relationship of the vertical circulations to shear and instability. Maximum updrafts are shown to exceed 5 m s 1 within Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, 4 m s-1 associated with transient gravity waves, 3 m s-1 in generating cells, 6 m s-1 in elevated convection, 4 m s-1 in surface-based deep convection, 5 m s-1 in boundary layer turbulence, and 9 m s-1 in shear-induced turbulence. 
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  8. Rapp, Anita (Ed.)
    Vertical motions over the complex terrain of Idaho’s Payette River Basin were observed by the Wyoming Cloud Radar (WCR) during 23 flights of the Wyoming King Air during the SNOWIE field campaign. The WCR measured radial velocity, V_r, which includes the reflectivity-weighted terminal velocity of hydrometeors (V_t), vertical air velocity (w), horizontal wind contributions as a result of aircraft attitude deviations, and aircraft motion. Aircraft motion was removed through standard processing. To retrieve vertical radial velocity (W), V_r was corrected using rawinsonde data and aircraft attitude measurements. w was then calculated by subtracting the mean W, (W ̅), at a given height along a flight leg long enough for W ̅ to equal the mean reflectivity weighted terminal velocity, (V_t ) ̅, at that height. The accuracy of the w and (V_t ) ̅ retrievals were dependent on satisfying assumptions along a given flight leg that the winds at a given altitude above/below the aircraft did not vary, the vertical air motions at a given altitude sum to 0 m s-1, and (V_t ) ̅ at a given altitude did not vary. The uncertainty in the w retrieval associated with each assumption is evaluated. Case studies and a project wide summary show that this methodology can provide estimates of w that closely match gust probe measurements of w at the aircraft level. Flight legs with little variation in equivalent reflectivity factor at a given height and large horizontal echo extent were associated with the least retrieval uncertainty. The greatest uncertainty occurred in regions with isolated convective turrets or at altitudes where split cloud layers were present. 
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  9. Abstract A dry-air intrusion induced by the tropopause folding split the deep cloud into two layers resulting in a shallow orographic cloud with a supercooled liquid cloud top at around −15°C and an ice cloud above it on 19 January 2017 during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE). The airborne AgI seeding of this case was simulated by the WRF Weather Modification (WRF-WxMod) Model with different configurations. Simulations at different grid spacing, driven by different reanalysis data, using different model physics were conducted to explore the ability of WRF-WxMod to capture the properties of natural and seeded clouds. The detailed model–observation comparisons show that the simulation driven by ERA5 data, using Thompson–Eidhammer microphysics with 30% of the CCN climatology, best captured the observed cloud structure and supercooled liquid water properties. The ability of the model to correctly capture the wind field was critical for successful simulation of the seeding plume locations. The seeding plume features and ice number concentrations within them from the large-eddy simulations (LES) are in better agreement with observations than non-LES runs mostly due to weaker AgI dispersion associated with the finer grid spacing. Seeding effects on precipitation amount and impacted areas from LES seeding simulations agreed well with radar-derived values. This study shows that WRF-WxMod is able to simulate and quantify observed features of natural and seeded clouds given that critical observations are available to validate the model. Observation-constrained seeding ensemble simulations are proposed to quantify the AgI seeding impacts on wintertime orographic clouds. Significance Statement Recent observational work has demonstrated that the impact of airborne glaciogenic seeding of orographic supercooled liquid clouds is detectable and can be quantified in terms of the extra ground precipitation. This study aims, for the first time, to simulate this seeding impact for one well-observed case. The stakes are high: if the model performs well in this case, then seasonal simulations can be conducted with appropriate configurations after validations against observations, to determine the impact of a seeding program on the seasonal mountain snowpack and runoff, with more fidelity than ever. High–resolution weather simulations inherently carry uncertainty. Within the envelope of this uncertainty, the model compares very well to the field observations. 
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