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Award ID contains: 2018280

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  1. Abstract Deep learning (DL) models trained on hydrologic observations can perform extraordinarily well, but they can inherit deficiencies of the training data, such as limited coverage of in situ data or low resolution/accuracy of satellite data. Here we propose a novel multiscale DL scheme learning simultaneously from satellite and in situ data to predict 9 km daily soil moisture (5 cm depth). Based on spatial cross‐validation over sites in the conterminous United States, the multiscale scheme obtained a median correlation of 0.901 and root‐mean‐square error of 0.034 m3/m3. It outperformed the Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite mission's 9 km product, DL models trained on in situ data alone, and land surface models. Our 9 km product showed better accuracy than previous 1 km satellite downscaling products, highlighting limited impacts of improving resolution. Not only is our product useful for planning against floods, droughts, and pests, our scheme is generically applicable to geoscientific domains with data on multiple scales, breaking the confines of individual data sets. 
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  2. Abstract Predictions of hydrologic variables across the entire water cycle have significant value for water resources management as well as downstream applications such as ecosystem and water quality modeling. Recently, purely data‐driven deep learning models like long short‐term memory (LSTM) showed seemingly insurmountable performance in modeling rainfall runoff and other geoscientific variables, yet they cannot predict untrained physical variables and remain challenging to interpret. Here, we show that differentiable, learnable, process‐based models (calledδmodels here) can approach the performance level of LSTM for the intensively observed variable (streamflow) with regionalized parameterization. We use a simple hydrologic model HBV as the backbone and use embedded neural networks, which can only be trained in a differentiable programming framework, to parameterize, enhance, or replace the process‐based model's modules. Without using an ensemble or post‐processor,δmodels can obtain a median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.732 for 671 basins across the USA for the Daymet forcing data set, compared to 0.748 from a state‐of‐the‐art LSTM model with the same setup. For another forcing data set, the difference is even smaller: 0.715 versus 0.722. Meanwhile, the resulting learnable process‐based models can output a full set of untrained variables, for example, soil and groundwater storage, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and baseflow, and can later be constrained by their observations. Both simulated evapotranspiration and fraction of discharge from baseflow agreed decently with alternative estimates. The general framework can work with models with various process complexity and opens up the path for learning physics from big data. 
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  3. Abstract Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) provides subcentimetric measurements of surface displacements, which are key for characterizing and monitoring magmatic processes in volcanic regions. The abundant measurements of surface displacements in multitemporal InSAR data routinely acquired by SAR satellites can facilitate near real‐time volcano monitoring on a global basis. However, the presence of atmospheric signals in interferograms complicates the interpretation of those InSAR measurements, which can even lead to a misinterpretation of InSAR signals and volcanic unrest. Given the vast quantities of SAR data available, an automatic InSAR data processing and denoising approach is required to separate volcanic signals that are cause of concern from atmospheric signals and noise. In this study, we employ a deep learning strategy that directly removes atmospheric and other noise signals from time‐consecutive unwrapped surface displacements obtained through an InSAR time series approach using an end‐to‐end convolutional neural network (CNN) with an encoder‐decoder architecture, modified U‐net. The CNN is trained with simulated synthetic unwrapped surface displacement maps and is then applied to real InSAR data. Our proposed architecture is capable of detecting dynamic spatio‐temporal patterns of volcanic surface displacements. We find that an ensemble‐average strategy is recommended to stabilize detected results for varying deformation rates and signal‐to‐noise ratios (SNRs). A case study is also presented where this method is applied to InSAR data covering Masaya volcano, Nicaragua and the results are validated using continuous GPS data. The results confirm that our network can indeed efficiently suppress atmospheric and other noise to reveal the noise‐free surface deformation. 
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  4. Accurate hydrologic modeling is vital to characterizing how the terrestrial water cycle responds to climate change. Pure deep learning (DL) models have been shown to outperform process-based ones while remaining difficult to interpret. More recently, differentiable physics-informed machine learning models with a physical backbone can systematically integrate physical equations and DL, predicting untrained variables and processes with high performance. However, it is unclear if such models are competitive for global-scale applications with a simple backbone. Therefore, we use – for the first time at this scale – differentiable hydrologic models (full name δHBV-globe1.0-hydroDL, shortened to δHBV here) to simulate the rainfall–runoff processes for 3753 basins around the world. Moreover, we compare the δHBV models to a purely data-driven long short-term memory (LSTM) model to examine their strengths and limitations. Both LSTM and the δHBV models provide competitive daily hydrologic simulation capabilities in global basins, with median Kling–Gupta efficiency values close to or higher than 0.7 (and 0.78 with LSTM for a subset of 1675 basins with long-term discharge records), significantly outperforming traditional models. Moreover, regionalized differentiable models demonstrated stronger spatial generalization ability (median KGE 0.64) than a traditional parameter regionalization approach (median KGE 0.46) and even LSTM for ungauged region tests across continents. Nevertheless, relative to LSTM, the differentiable model was hampered by structural deficiencies for cold or polar regions, highly arid regions, and basins with significant human impacts. This study also sets the benchmark for hydrologic estimates around the world and builds a foundation for improving global hydrologic simulations. 
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  5. Abstract. Climate change threatens our ability to grow food for an ever-increasing population. There is aneed for high-quality soil moisture predictions in under-monitored regionslike Africa. However, it is unclear if soil moisture processes are globallysimilar enough to allow our models trained on available in situ data tomaintain accuracy in unmonitored regions. We present a multitask longshort-term memory (LSTM) model that learns simultaneously from globalsatellite-based data and in situ soil moisture data. This model is evaluated inboth random spatial holdout mode and continental holdout mode (trained onsome continents, tested on a different one). The model compared favorably tocurrent land surface models, satellite products, and a candidate machinelearning model, reaching a global median correlation of 0.792 for the randomspatial holdout test. It behaved surprisingly well in Africa and Australia,showing high correlation even when we excluded their sites from the trainingset, but it performed relatively poorly in Alaska where rapid changes areoccurring. In all but one continent (Asia), the multitask model in theworst-case scenario test performed better than the soil moisture activepassive (SMAP) 9 km product. Factorial analysis has shown that the LSTM model'saccuracy varies with terrain aspect, resulting in lower performance for dryand south-facing slopes or wet and north-facing slopes. This knowledgehelps us apply the model while understanding its limitations. This model isbeing integrated into an operational agricultural assistance applicationwhich currently provides information to 13 million African farmers. 
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