Search for: All records

Abstract Recent climate change has caused declines in ice coverage which have lengthened the open water season in the Arctic and increased access to resources and shipping routes. These changes have resulted in more vessel activity in seasonally ice-covered regions. While traffic is increasing in the ice-free season, the amount of vessel activity in the marginal ice zone (ice concentration 15–80%) or in pack ice (>80% concentration) remains unclear. Understanding patterns of vessel activities in ice is important given increased safety challenges and environmental impacts. Here, we couple high-resolution ship tracking information with sea ice thickness and concentration data to quantify vessel activity in ice-covered areas of the Pacific Arctic (northern Bering, Chukchi, and western Beaufort Seas). This region is a geo-strategically critical area that contains globally important commercial fisheries and serves as a corridor for Arctic access for wildlife and vessels. We find that vessel traffic in the marginal ice zone is widely distributed across the study area while vessel traffic in pack ice is concentrated along known shipping routes and in areas of natural resource development. Of the statistically significant relationships between vessel traffic and both sea ice concentration and thickness, over 99% are negative, indicating that increasing sea ice is associated with decreasing vessel traffic on a monthly time scale. Furthermore, there is substantial vessel traffic in areas of high concentration for bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), and traffic in these areas increased four-fold during the study period. Fishing vessels dominate vessel traffic at low ice concentrations, but vessels categorized as Other, likely icebreakers, are the most common vessel type in pack ice. These findings indicate that vessel traffic in areas of ice coverage is influenced by distant policy and resource development decisions which should be taken into consideration when trying to predict future vessel-ice interactions in a changing climate. 

Abstract As Arctic open water increases, shipping activity to and from mid- and western Russian Arctic ports to points south has notably increased. A number of Arctic municipalities hope increased vessel traffic will create opportunities to become a major transshipment hub. However, even with more traffic passing these ports, it might still be economically cheaper to offload cargo at a more southern port, which may also result in lower emissions. Ultimately, the question of whether to use a transshipment in the Arctic versus an established major European port is determined by the relative costs (or emissions) of sea versus land travel. This study calculates the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal hubs for shipments. We quantify the relative prices and CO₂emissions for sea and land travel for routes starting at the Norwegian–Russian sea border with an ultimate destination in central Europe and find that all existing routes are not competitive with routes using the major existing Port of Rotterdam (Netherlands); even with investments in port expansion and modernization, they would be underutilized regardless of an increase in vessel traffic destined for central Europe. We then examine under what relative prices (emissions) these routes become economically viable or result in lower emissions than using existing southern ports. Notably, the cheapest routes generally produce the lowest emissions, and the most expensive routes tend to have the largest emissions. Communities should consider relative competitiveness prior to making large infrastructure investments. While some choices are physically possible, they may not be economically viable. Significance StatementClimate change, while disruptive, can also create new opportunities. Many Arctic cities hope to become a major transshipping hub as declining sea ice opens new shipping routes from western and mid-Russian Arctic ports to European ports. This paper quantifies the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal transportation hubs and finds that they are uncompetitive with the more southern port in Rotterdam (Netherlands). We also show that the most economically competitive routes have lower direct emissions. Thus, while Arctic ports provide critical services in support of local and regional economic activity, even with year-round Arctic navigation Arctic ports’ development into major transshipment hubs for cargo destined for more distant locations may be neither economically viable nor desirable. 

The sea ice of Article 234 of UNCLOS represents not the physical ice of the Arctic Ocean but a negotiated myth of ice as it affects the Arctic littoral states. The stability of this prescription is threatened by anthropogenic climate change causing a preferential evacuation of ice from the eastern Arctic compared to the western Arctic, as well as expectations for a possible future ice-free Arctic. This is leading to an intensification of claims on marine space. The irreducible uncertainties of the future trajectory of Arctic change demands a dynamic response. The myth of Article 234 will ultimately align with the complexities of the phenomenon of disappearing ice. It is in the dynamic nature of international law that prescriptions do not remain constant and neither does ice. 

Few transformations in Earth systems are as dramatic as those currently occurring in the Arctic. We reveal the emergence of a new route regime in response to the evolving context of climate change and human pressures. This paradigm shift presents both opportunities for Arctic exploration and maritime trade, as well as risks for marine ecosystems and coastal communities. It underscores the need for concerted efforts to recalibrate the associated legal framework. 

The snow-white Arctic is darkening physically and economically. Climate change is turning frozen seas into open water and blackening snow and ice as soot spreads and algae propagates. At the same time, the region’s shadow economy is expanding. Illicit activities like human trafficking and fishing have long thrived in northern peripheries beyond state reach, while Russia’s transition to capitalism in the 1990s institutionalized the black market. The invasion of Ukraine further tightened ties between Russian Arctic resource development and criminal underworlds. With the Kremlin continuing northern extraction to fund the war and circumpolar diplomacy fracturing, the entire region is at risk of environmental and geopolitical degradation. 

Abstract Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, and putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation and associated risks to built infrastructure due to loss of bearing capacity and thaw subsidence in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Using a subset of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 and 585 scenarios we estimated changes in permafrost bearing capacity and ground subsidence between two reference decades: 2015–2024 and 2055–2064. Using publicly available infrastructure databases we identified roads, railways, airport runways, and buildings at risk of permafrost degradation and estimated country-specific costs associated with damage to infrastructure. The results show that under the SSP245 scenario 29% of roads, 23% of railroads, and 11% of buildings will be affected by permafrost degradation, costing $182 billion to the Arctic states by mid-century. Under the SSP585 scenario, 44% of roads, 34% of railroads, and 17% of buildings will be affected with estimated cost of $276 billion, with airport runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs, ranging from $115 to $169 billion depending on the scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions has the potential to significantly decrease the costs of projected damages in Arctic countries, especially in Russia. The approach presented in this study underscores the substantial impacts of climate change on infrastructure and can assist to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies in Arctic states.