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This dataset presents the results of a community survey that was designed to better understand the effects of permafrost degradation and coastal erosion on civil infrastructure. Observations were collected from residents in four Arctic coastal communities: Point Lay, Wainwright, Utqiaġvik, and Kaktovik. There are three categories of questions in this survey: permafrost degradation, coastal erosion, and infrastructure damage and repair. The participants identified changes in ground surface manifested by permafrost degradation in and around their communities. The options provided in the questionnaire included surface water ponding, sinkholes, ground surface collapse, differential ground settlement along roads and gravel pads, and others. The periods during which these changes have been happening were also recorded; the options include less than 6 months, 0.5–1 year, 1–3 years, 3–5 years, 5–10 years, and greater than 10 years. Participants also indicated the infrastructure types affected by permafrost degradation. The options include houses, runways, schools, ice cellars, water and sewer lines, and others. Effects of permafrost degradation on residential buildings, buried pipelines, utilidors, and roads were reported in the survey. Detailed information such as damage type, damage location, repair method, and effectiveness of repair methods was also recorded. For the questions related to coastal erosion, participants identified events of coastal erosion, periods during which coastal erosion has been happening, types of civil infrastructure affected, and types of erosion control measures implemented and their effectiveness. Participants were able to provide their plans if permafrost degradation and coastal erosion continue to happen. They identified the locations of permafrost degradation and coastal erosion on provided maps with three different scales of approximately 600 km, 40 km, and 8 km.
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The costs of Arctic infrastructure damages due to permafrost degradation
Abstract Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, and putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation and associated risks to built infrastructure due to loss of bearing capacity and thaw subsidence in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Using a subset of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 and 585 scenarios we estimated changes in permafrost bearing capacity and ground subsidence between two reference decades: 2015–2024 and 2055–2064. Using publicly available infrastructure databases we identified roads, railways, airport runways, and buildings at risk of permafrost degradation and estimated country-specific costs associated with damage to infrastructure. The results show that under the SSP245 scenario 29% of roads, 23% of railroads, and 11% of buildings will be affected by permafrost degradation, costing $182 billion to the Arctic states by mid-century. Under the SSP585 scenario, 44% of roads, 34% of railroads, and 17% of buildings will be affected with estimated cost of $276 billion, with airport runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs, ranging from $115 to $169 billion depending on the scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions has the potential to significantly decrease the costs of projected damages in Arctic countries, especially in Russia. The approach presented in this study underscores the substantial impacts of climate change on infrastructure and can assist to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies in Arctic states.
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- PAR ID:
- 10414787
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 18
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 015006
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acab18
