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Estimates suggest that over 4 gigatons per year of carbon dioxide (Gt-CO₂year⁻¹) be removed from the atmosphere by 2050 to meet international climate goals. One strategy for carbon dioxide removal is seaweed farming; however its global potential remains highly uncertain. Here, we apply a dynamic seaweed growth model that includes growth-limiting mechanisms, such as nitrate supply, to estimate the global potential yield of four types of seaweed. We estimate that harvesting 1 Gt year⁻¹of seaweed carbon would require farming over 1 million km²of the most productive exclusive economic zones, located in the equatorial Pacific; the cultivation area would need to be tripled to attain an additional 1 Gt year⁻¹of harvested carbon, indicating dramatic reductions in carbon harvest efficiency beyond the most productive waters. Improving the accuracy of annual harvest yield estimates requires better understanding of biophysical constraints such as seaweed loss rates (e.g., infestation, disease, grazing, wave erosion).

As part of a project focused on the coastal fisheries of Isla Natividad, an island on the Pacific coast of Baja California, Mexico, we conducted a 2‐1/2 year study of flows at two sites within the island's kelp forests. At one site (Punta Prieta), currents are tidal, whereas at the other site (Morro Prieto), currents are weaker and may be more strongly influenced by wind forcing. Satellite estimates of the biomass of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) for this period varied between 0 (no kelp) and 3 kg/m²(dense kelp forest), including a period in which kelp entirely was absent as a result of the 2014–2015 “Warm Blob” in the Eastern Pacific. During this natural “deforestation experiment”, alongshore velocities at both sites when kelp was present were substantially weaker than when kelp was absent, with low‐frequency alongshore currents attenuated more than higher frequency ones, behavior that was the same at both sites despite differences in forcing. The attenuation of cross‐shore flows by kelp was less than alongshore flows; thus, residence times for water inside the kelp forest, which are primarily determined by cross‐shore velocities, were only weakly affected by the presence or absence of kelp. The flow changes we observed in response to changes in kelp density are important to the biogeochemical functioning of the kelp forest in that slower flows imply longer residence times, and, are also ecologically relevant in that reduced tidal excursions may lead to more localized recruitment of planktonic larvae.

Kelp beds provide significant ecosystem services and socioeconomic benefits globally, and prominently in coastal zones of the California Current. Their distributions and abundance, however, vary greatly over space and time. Here, we describe long-term patterns of Giant Kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) sea surface canopy area off the coast of San Diego County from 1983 through 2019 along with recent patterns of water column nitrate (NO₃^-) exposure inferred fromin situtemperature data in 2014 and 2015 at sites spanning 30 km of the coastline near San Diego California, USA. Site-specific patterns of kelp persistence and resilience were associated with ocean and climate dynamics, with total sea surface kelp canopy area varying approximately 33-fold over the almost 4 decades (min 0.34 km²in 1984; max 11.25 km²in 2008, median 4.79 km²). Site-normalized canopy areas showed that recent kelp persistence since 2014 was greater at Point Loma and La Jolla, the largest kelp beds off California, than at the much smaller kelp bed off Cardiff. NO₃^-exposure was estimated from an 11-month time series ofin situwater column temperature collected in 2014 and 2015 at 4 kelp beds, using a relationship between temperature and NO₃^-concentration previously established for the region. The vertical position of the 14.5°C isotherm, an indicator of the main thermocline and nutricline, varied across the entire water column at semidiurnal to seasonal frequencies. We use a novel means of quantifying estimated water column NO₃^-exposure integrated through time (mol-days m^-2) adapted from degree days approaches commonly used to characterize thermal exposures. Water column integrated NO₃^-exposure binned by quarters of the time series showed strong seasonal differences with highest exposure in Mar - May 2015, lowest exposure in Sep - Dec 2014, with consistently highest exposure off Point Loma. The water column integrated NO₃^-signal was filtered to provide estimates of the contribution to total nitrate exposure from high frequency variability (ƒ >= 1 cycle 30 hr^-1) associated predominantly with internal waves, and low frequency variability driven predominantly by seasonal upwelling. While seasonal upwelling accounted for > 90% of NO₃^-exposure across the full year, during warm periods when seasonal upwelling was reduced or absent and NO₃^-exposure was low overall, the proportion due to internal waves increased markedly to 84 to 100% of the site-specific total exposure. The high frequency variability associated with internal waves may supply critical nutrient availability during anomalously warm periods. Overall, these analyses support a hypothesis that differences in NO₃^-exposure among sites due to seasonal upwelling and higher frequency internal wave forcing contribute to spatial patterns in Giant Kelp persistence in southern California. The study period includes anomalously warm surface conditions and the marine heatwave associated with the “Pacific Warm Blob” superimposed on the seasonal thermal signal and corresponding to the onset of a multi-year decline in kelp canopy area and marked differences in kelp persistence among sites. Our analysis suggests that, particularly during periods of warm surface conditions, variation in NO₃^-exposure associated with processes occurring at higher frequencies, including internal waves can be a significant source of NO₃^-exposure to kelp beds in this region. The patterns described here also offer a view of the potential roles of seasonal and higher frequency nutrient dynamics for Giant Kelp persistence in southern California under continuing ocean surface warming and increasing frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves.