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Abstract Continued global warming is expected to result in reduced precipitation and a drier climate in Central America. Projections of future changes are highly uncertain, however, due to the spatial resolution limitations of models and insufficient observational data coverage across space and time. Paleoclimate proxy data are therefore critical for understanding regional climate responses during times of global climate reorganization. Here we present two lake‐sediment based records of precipitation variability in Guatemala along with a synthesis of Central American hydroclimate records spanning the last millennium (800–2000 CE). The synthesis reveals that regional climate changes have been strikingly heterogeneous, even over relatively short distances. Our analysis further suggests that shifts in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which have been invoked by numerous studies to explain variability in Central American and circum‐Caribbean proxy records, cannot alone explain the observed pattern of hydroclimate variability. Instead, interactions between several ocean‐atmosphere processes and their disparate influences across variable topography appear to have resulted in complex precipitation responses. These complexities highlight the difficulty of reconstructing past precipitation changes across Central America and point to the need for additional paleo‐record development and analysis before the relationships between external forcing and hydroclimate change can be robustly determined. Such efforts should help anchor model‐based predictions of future responses to continued global warming. 

Abstract The¹⁴C content of sedimentary organic matter (OM) and specific organic molecules provide valuable information on the source and age of OM stored in sediments, but these data are limited for tropical fluvial and lake sediments. We analyzed¹⁴C in bulk OM, palmitic acid (C₁₆), and long‐chainn‐alkanoic acids (C₂₄, C₂₆, and C₂₈), within fluvial and lake sediments in the catchment of Lake Izabal, a large tectonic lake basin in Guatemala. We combined these measurements with bulk and compound‐specific δ¹³C measurements, as well as sediment organic carbon to nitrogen (OC:N) ratios, to understand the source and age of sedimentary OM in different regions of the lake catchment. Most fatty acid and bulk OM samples were characterized by pre‐modern carbon, indicating important input of aged carbon with residence times of hundreds to thousands of years into sediments. We identified two mechanisms leading to aged carbon export to sediments. In the high‐relief and deforested Polochic catchment, older OM and fatty acids are associated with low % total organic carbon (TOC) and low OC:N, indicating aged OM associated with eroded mineral soil. In the smaller, low‐relief, and largely forested Oscuro catchment, old OM and fatty acids are associated with high %TOC and high OC:N ratios, indicating export of undegraded aged plant biomass from swamp peat. The age of bulk OM and fatty acids in Lake Izabal sediments is similar to the ages observed in fluvial sediments, implying that fluvial input of aged soil carbon makes an important contribution to lake sediment carbon reservoirs in this large tropical lake. 

Coastal freshwater ecosystems are economically and ecologically important and provide multiple environmental services worldwide. They sequester carbon at rates ten times faster, and store five times more carbon per unit area than mature tropical forests. Vulnerability of these carbon sinks to marine inundation, however, is expected to increase in response to global sea-level rise (GSLR). To better understand the implications of future GSLR, we investigated the geochemical and biological consequences of episodic Holocene marine incursions into Lake Izabal, a large coastal freshwater ecosystem on the Caribbean coast of Central America. About 8,300 cal yr BP, marine incursion transformed Lake Izabal into a sulfur-rich anoxic waterbody, altered its biogeochemical cycles, eliminated several aquatic species, and reduced sediment organic carbon (OC) concentration by as much as to 90%. After that Early Holocene seawater incursion, it took almost 5,000 years for the lacustrine ecosystem to return to low-salinity status. And even when it did, the system did not fully recover to pre-inundation conditions. Some freshwater taxa failed to return, and sediment carbon content remained lower than pre-inundation values. A subsequent, but less intense marine incursion ca. 1,900 cal yr BP led to the formation of a sulfur-rich, hypoxic, brackish-water ecosystem that triggered a similar biodiversity loss and further sediment OC decline. These findings suggest that future marine incursions into coastal freshwater ecosystems, driven by ongoing GSLR, could have dramatic consequences, leading to losses of environmental services, including the ability of these systems to maintain high rates of blue carbon storage.