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Abstract For decades, community ecologists have examined how diversity varies with ecosystem productivity. Despite this long history, tests of hypothesized mechanisms, namely the interplay between environmental filtering, biotic interactions, and dispersal, are lacking, largely due to the intractability of using traditional approaches. Across a productivity gradient in a serpentine grassland (California, USA), for four annual plant species, we coupled local productivity estimates, occupancy surveys, and measures of persistence tested on transplants under natural conditions and when interactions with neighbors were experimentally reduced. We found a positive effect of productivity on diversity (i.e., the proportion of our focal species occupying a location) despite strong competition limiting species persistence in productive environments. Additionally, across species and for the community, we found a strong mismatch between species occupancy versus persistence, largely due to dispersal excess causing sink populations with negative growth rates. Our results suggest that diversity–productivity relationships can be largely driven by dispersal and its interactive effects with local biotic and abiotic conditions. 

ABSTRACT Global change drivers alter multiple components of community composition, with cascading impacts on ecosystem stability. However, it remains largely unknown how interactions among global change drivers will alter community synchrony, especially across successional timescales. We analysed a 22‐year time series of grassland community data from Cedar Creek, USA, to examine the joint effects of pulse soil disturbance and press nitrogen addition on community synchrony, richness, evenness and stability during transient and post‐transient periods of succession. Using multiple regression and structural equation modelling, we found that nitrogen addition and soil disturbance decreased both synchrony and stability, thereby weakening the negative synchrony–stability relationship. We found evidence of the portfolio effect during transience, but once communities settled on a restructured state post‐transience, diversity no longer influenced the synchrony–stability relationship. Differences between transient and post‐transient drivers of synchrony and stability underscore the need for long‐term data to inform ecosystem management under ongoing global change. 

Abstract While community synchrony is a key framework for predicting ecological constancy, the interplay between community synchrony and ecological invasions remains unclear. Yet the degree of synchrony in a resident community may influence its resistance and resilience to the introduction of an invasive species. Here we used a generalizable mathematical framework, constructed with a modified Lotka–Volterra competition model, to first simulate resident communities across a range of competitive strengths and species' responses to environmental fluctuations, which yielded communities that ranged from strongly synchronous to compensatory. We then invaded these communities at different timesteps with invaders of varying demographic traits, after which we quantified the resident community's susceptibility to initial invasion attempts (resistance) and the degree to which community synchrony was altered after invasion (resiliency of synchrony). We found that synchronous communities were not only more resistant but also more resilient to invasion than compensatory communities, likely due to stronger competition between resident species and thus lower cumulative abundances in compensatory communities, providing greater opportunities for invasion. The growth rate of the invader was most influenced by the resident and invader competition coefficients and the growth rate of the invader species. Our findings support prioritizing the conservation of compensatory and weakly synchronous communities which may be at increased risk of invasion. 

Abstract Global change is altering patterns of community assembly, with net outcomes dependent on species' responses to the abiotic environment, both directly and mediated through biotic interactions. Here, we assess alpine plant community responses in a 15‐year factorial nitrogen addition, warming and snow manipulation experiment. We used a dynamic competition model to estimate the density‐dependent and ‐independent processes underlying changes in species‐group abundances over time. Density‐dependent shifts in competitive interactions drove long‐term changes in abundance of species‐groups under global change while counteracting environmental drivers limited the growth response of the dominant species through density‐independent mechanisms. Furthermore, competitive interactions shifted with the environment, primarily with nitrogen and drove non‐linear abundance responses across environmental gradients. Our results highlight that global change can either reshuffle species hierarchies or further favour already‐dominant species; predicting which outcome will occur requires incorporating both density‐dependent and ‐independent mechanisms and how they interact across multiple global change factors. 

Abstract Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combine simulation and empirical analyses to elucidate mechanisms that underlie patterns of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics. In both simulated and empirical communities, we show that synchronous and compensatory dynamics are not mutually exclusive but instead can vary by timescale. Our simulations identify multiple mechanisms that can generate timescale‐specific patterns, including different environmental drivers, diverse life histories, dispersal, and non‐stationary dynamics. We find that traditional metrics for quantifying synchronous dynamics are often biased toward long‐term drivers and may miss the importance of short‐term drivers. Our findings indicate key mechanisms to consider when assessing synchronous versus compensatory dynamics and our approach provides a pathway for disentangling these dynamics in natural systems.