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Abstract Rainfall in the tropics has been shown to be produced either by isolated but intense convective systems (showersregime) or widespread but weaker systems (rainsregime). We examine significant rainfall systems observed in the OTREC project (Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection) in order to tease out the physical mechanisms differentiating these two regimes. We find that rains occur in very moist environments, typically with weak conditional instability. In contrast, showers develop in drier environments with larger instability. Spectral weak temperature gradient numerical calculations show that showers are associated with episodic rainfall separated by significant quiescent periods, whereas rains produce continuous simulated rainfall after a spinup period. Mass flux profiles of showers and rains are very different, resulting in different effects on the large scale environment. 

Abstract Two analytical models with different starting points of convective parameterizations, the Fuchs and Raymond model on one hand and the Khairoutdinov and Emanuel model on the other, are used to develop “minimal difference” models for the MJO. The main physical mechanisms that drive the MJO in both models are wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) and cloud–radiation interactions (CRI). The dispersion curves for the modeled eastward-propagating mode, the MJO mode, are presented for an idealized case with zero meridional wind and for the realistic cases with higher meridional numbers. In both cases, the two models produce eastward-propagating modes with the growth rate greatest at the largest wavelengths despite having different representations of cumulus convection. We show that the relative contributions of WISHE and CRI are sensitive to how the convection and entropy/moisture budgets are represented in models like these. Significance StatementThe Madden–Julian oscillation is the largest weather disturbance on our planet. It propagates eastward encompassing the whole tropical belt. It influences weather all around the globe by modulating hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, and other phenomena. Numerical models that forecast the Madden–Julian oscillation need improvement. Here we explore the physics behind the Madden–Julian oscillation using simple analytical models. Our models are based on the assumption that surface enthalpy fluxes and cloud–radiation interactions are responsible for the Madden–Julian oscillation but it should be borne in mind that other physical mechanisms have been proposed for the MJO. The impact of this research is to better understand the Madden–Julian oscillation mechanism. 

Abstract Convection observed in the OTREC field program in the tropical east Pacific and southwest Caribbean is simulated using a cloud‐resolving model employing the weak temperature gradient approximation. Simulations are made using reference profiles derived from three‐dimensional variational analyses of dropsonde data selected for different ranges of saturation fraction, a kind of column relative humidity. For each of these humidity ranges, two simulations are performed, one with ventilation of the model domain by the ambient wind (a new model feature) and one without this ventilation. The model results using ventilation are much closer to observation than those without ventilation, especially for drier environments. These results have strong implications for the distribution of ITCZ convection in the east Pacific and for the construction of cumulus parameterizations. 

Abstract. The Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC) field campaign, conducted August through October 2019, focuses on studying convection in the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean. An unprecedented number of dropsondes were deployed (648) during 22 missions to study the region of strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the eastern Pacific region, the region just off the coast of Columbia, and in the uniform SST region in the southwestern Caribbean. The dropsondes were assimilated in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. This study quantifies departures, observed minus the model value of a variable, in dropsonde denial experiments and studies time series of convective variables, saturation fraction which measures moisture and instability index and deep convective inhibition which quantify atmospheric stability and boundary layer stability to convection, respectively.Departures are small whether dropsondes are assimilated or not, except in a special case of developing convection and organization prior to Tropical Storm Ivo where wind departures are significantly larger when dropsondes are not assimilated. Departures are larger in cloudy regions compared to cloud-free regions when comparing a vertically integrated departure with a cloudiness estimation. Abovementioned variables are all well represented by the model when compared to observations, with some systematic deviations in and above the boundary layer. Time series of these variables show artificial convective activity in the model, in the eastern Pacific region off the coast of Costa Rica, which we hypothesize occurs due to the overestimation of moisture content in that region.