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Abstract Mass loss from ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica has quadrupled since the 1990s and now represents the dominant source of global mean sea-level rise from the cryosphere. This has raised concerns about their future stability and focussed attention on the global mean temperature thresholds that might trigger more rapid retreat or even collapse, with renewed calls to meet the more ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement and limit warming to +1.5 °C above pre-industrial. Here we synthesise multiple lines of evidence to show that +1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries, causing extensive loss and damage to coastal populations and challenging the implementation of adaptation measures. To avoid this requires a global mean temperature that is cooler than present and which we hypothesise to be closer to +1 °C above pre-industrial, possibly even lower, but further work is urgently required to more precisely determine a ‘safe limit’ for ice sheets. 

Abstract Pliocene global temperatures periodically exceeded modern levels, offering insights into ice sheet sensitivity to warm climates. Ice-proximal geologic records from this period provide crucial but limited glimpses of Antarctic Ice Sheet behavior. We use an ice sheet model driven by climate model snapshots to simulate transient glacial cyclicity from 4.5 to 2.6 Ma, providing spatial and temporal context for geologic records. By evaluating model simulations against a comprehensive synthesis of geologic data, we translate the intermittent geologic record into a continuous reconstruction of Antarctic sea level contributions, revealing a dynamic ice sheet that contributed up to 25 m of glacial-interglacial sea level change. Model grounding line behavior across all major Antarctic catchments exhibits an extended period of receded ice during the mid-Pliocene, coincident with proximal geologic data around Antarctica but earlier than peak warmth in the Northern Hemisphere. Marine ice sheet collapse is triggered with 1.5 °C model subsurface ocean warming. 

Abstract Freshwater discharge from ice sheets induces surface atmospheric cooling and subsurface ocean warming, which are associated with negative and positive feedbacks respectively. However, uncertainties persist regarding these feedbacks’ relative strength and combined effect. Here we assess associated feedbacks in a coupled ice sheet-climate model, and show that for the Antarctic Ice Sheet the positive feedback dominates in moderate future warming scenarios and in the early stage of ice sheet retreat, but is overwhelmed by the negative feedback in intensive warming scenarios when the West Antarctic Ice Sheet undergoes catastrophic collapse. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is affected by freshwater discharge from both the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets and, as an interhemispheric teleconnection bridge, exacerbates the opposing ice sheet’s retreat via the Bipolar Seesaw. These results highlight the crucial role of ice sheet-climate interactions via freshwater flux in future ice sheet retreat and associated sea-level rise. 

How fast future sea level rises will depend on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to warming. AIS projections are shaped by the assumption that sea-level peaks during past interglacials occurred after the North American ice sheet complex (NAIS) disappeared. We synthesize evidence from paleoceanography and allied disciplines to argue that NAIS persisted into some of the warmest interglacials of the last million years. We show that overlooking NAIS persistence may lead to underestimation of AIS sensitivity to warming, and propose that this paradigm shift opens research avenues that can increase confidence in the accuracy of climate and sea-level projections. 

Rapid, millennial-scale changes in sea level have been proposed for the beginning, middle, and/or end of the Last Interglacial (LIG) [~129 to 116 thousand years ago (ka)]. Each of these scenarios has different implications for polar ice sheet behavior in a warming world. Here, we present a suite of²³⁰Th ages for fossil corals in the Seychelles within a detailed sedimentary and stratigraphic context to evaluate the evolution of sea level during this past warm period. The rise to peak sea level at ~122 to 123 ka was punctuated by two abrupt stratigraphic discontinuities, defining three distinct generations of reef growth. We attribute the evidence of episodic reef growth and ephemeral sea-level fall to the competing influence of Northern Hemisphere ice melt and Antarctic ice regrowth. Asynchronous ice sheet contributions would mask the full extent of retreat for individual ice sheets during the LIG and imply greater temperature sensitivity of ice sheets than previously inferred. 

Antarctica is a vital component of Earth’s climate system, influencing global sea level, ocean circulation, and planetary albedo. Major knowledge gaps in critical processes—spanning the atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets, underlying beds, ice shelves, and sea ice—create uncertainties in future projections, hindering climate adaptation and risk assessments of ice intervention strategies. Antarctica’s ice sheet could contribute 28 centimeters to sea level by 2100, and potentially more if we surpass warming thresholds that trigger instabilities and rapid retreat. We review recent advances in understanding the changing stability of the ice sheet margins and identify key processes that require further research. Progress requires high-resolution satellite data, targeted field campaigns, improved modeling, and refined theory. Increased investment and interdisciplinary collaboration are essential to uncovering Antarctica’s hidden processes and reducing uncertainties in future projections. 

Abstract. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to sea level rise (SLR) is accelerating and there is an urgent need to improve predictions of when and from what parts of the ice sheet Greenland will contribute its first meter. Estimating the volume of Greenland ice that was lost during past warm periods offers a way to constrain the ice sheet’s response to future warming. Sub-ice sediment and bedrock, retrieved from deep ice core campaigns or targeted drilling efforts, yield critical and direct information about past ice-free conditions. However, it is challenging to scale the few available sub-ice point measurements to the geometry of the entire ice sheet. Here, we provide a framework for assessing sea-level potential, which we define as the amount the GIS has contributed to sea level when a particular location in Greenland is ice-free, from an ensemble of ice-sheet model simulations representing a wide range of plausible deglaciation scenarios. An assessment of dominant sources of uncertainty in our paleo ice sheet modelling, including climate forcing, ice-sheet initialization, and solid-Earth properties, reveals spatial patterns in the sensitivity of the ice sheet to these processes and related feedbacks. We find that the sea-level potential of central Greenland is most sensitive to lithospheric feedbacks and ice-sheet initialization, whereas the ice-sheet margins are most sensitive to climate forcing parameters. Our framework allows us to quantify the local and regional uncertainty in sea-level potential, which we use to evaluate the GIS bedrock according to the usefulness of information sub-ice sediments and bedrock provide about past ice-sheet geometry. Through our ensemble approach, we can assign a plausible range of GIS contributions to global sea level for deglaciated conditions at any site. Our results identify primarily areas in southwest Greenland, and secondarily north Greenland, as best-suited for subglacial access drilling that seeks to constrain the response of the ice sheet to past and future warming. 

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas. 

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.