Search for: All records

Abstract The National Weather Service plays a critical role in alerting the public when dangerous weather occurs. Tornado warnings are one of the most publicly visible products the NWS issues given the large societal impacts tornadoes can have. Understanding the performance of these warnings is crucial for providing adequate warning during tornadic events and improving overall warning performance. This study aims to understand warning performance during the lifetimes of individual storms (specifically in terms of probability of detection and lead time). For example, does probability of detection vary based on if the tornado was the first produced by the storm, or the last? We use tornado outbreak data from 2008 to 2014, archived NEXRAD radar data, and the NWS verification database to associate each tornado report with a storm object. This approach allows for an analysis of warning performance based on the chronological order of tornado occurrence within each storm. Results show that the probability of detection and lead time increase with later tornadoes in the storm; the first tornadoes of each storm are less likely to be warned and on average have less lead time. Probability of detection also decreases overnight, especially for first tornadoes and storms that only produce one tornado. These results are important for understanding how tornado warning performance varies during individual storm life cycles and how upstream forecast products (e.g., Storm Prediction Center tornado watches, mesoscale discussions, etc.) may increase warning confidence for the first tornado produced by each storm. Significance StatementIn this study, we focus on better understanding real-time tornado warning performance on a storm-by-storm basis. This approach allows us to examine how warning performance can change based on the order of each tornado within its parent storm. Using tornado reports, warning products, and radar data during tornado outbreaks from 2008 to 2014, we find that probability of detection and lead time increase with later tornadoes produced by the same storm. In other words, for storms that produce multiple tornadoes, thefirsttornado is generally the least likely to be warned in advance; when it is warned in advance, it generally contains less lead time than subsequent tornadoes. These findings provide important new analyses of tornado warning performance, particularly for the first tornado of each storm, and will help inform strategies for improving warning performance. 

Abstract There remains no consensus on whether the outer size of the tropical cyclone (TC) wind field impacts tornado occurrence. This study statistically examines the relationship between TC outer size with both the number and location of tornadoes using multidecadal tornado reports, a reanalysis‐derived TC outer size metric, and radiosonde data. These results show that larger TC spawn tornadoes that are located farther from and over a broader region relative to the cyclone center, although these changes do not entirely scale with TC outer size. Larger TCs are also associated with more frequent occurrence of tornadoes per 6 h, especially enhanced numbers of tornadoes. These changes in tornado occurrence in larger TCs may be due to a broadening of favorable helicity for tornadoes in the downshear sector, which may be partially offset by CAPE reductions in the left‐of‐shear quadrants.