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  1. Abstract With climate warming and drying, fire activity is increasing in Cajander larch (Larix cajanderiMayr.) forests underlain by continuous permafrost in northeastern Siberia, and initial post-fire tree demographic processes could unfold to determine long-term forest carbon (C) dynamics through impacts on tree density. Here, we evaluated above- and belowground C pools across 25 even-aged larch stands of varying tree densities that established following a wildfire in ~ 1940 near Cherskiy, Russia. Total C pools increased with increased larch tree density, from ~ 9,000 g C m−2in low-density stands to ~ 11,000 g C m−2in high and very high-density stands, with increases most pronounced at tree densities < 1 stem m−2and driven by increased above- and belowground (that is, coarse roots) and live and dead (that is, woody debris and snags) larch biomass. Total understory vegetation and non-larch coarse root C pools declined with increased tree density due to decreased shrub C pools, but these pools were relatively small compared to larch biomass. Fine root, soil organic matter (OM), and near surface (0–30 cm) mineral soil (MS) C pools varied little with tree density, although soil C pools held most (18–28% in OM and 44–51% in MS) C stored in these stands. Thus, if changing fire regimes promote denser stands, C storage will likely increase, but whether this increase offsets C lost during fires remains unknown. Our findings highlight how post-fire tree demographic processes impact C pool distribution and stability in larch forests of Siberian permafrost regions. 
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  2. Fire severity is increasing in larch forests of the Siberian Arctic as climate warms, and initial fire impacts on tree demographic processes could be an especially important determinant of long-term forest structure and carbon (C) dynamics. We hypothesized that changes in post-fire larch recruitment impact C accumulation through tree density impacts on understory microclimate and permafrost thaw. We tested these hypotheses by quantifying C pools across a Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) tree density gradient within a fire perimeter near Cherskiy, Russia that burned in ~1940. Across the density gradient, from 2010 - 2017 we inventoried larch trees and harvested ground-layer vegetation to estimate above ground contribution to C pools. We also quantified woody debris C pools and sampled below ground C pools (soil, fine roots, and coarse roots) in the organic + upper mineral soils. Our findings should highlight the potential for a climate-driven increase in fire severity to alter tree recruitment, successional dynamics, and C cycling in Siberian larch forests. 
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  3. Fire severity is increasing in larch forests of the Siberian Arctic as climate warms, and initial fire impacts on tree demographic processes could be an especially important determinant of long-term forest structure and carbon (C) dynamics. We hypothesized that changes in post-fire larch recruitment impact C accumulation through tree density impacts on understory microclimate and permafrost thaw. We tested these hypotheses by quantifying C pools across a Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) tree density gradient within a fire perimeter near Cherskiy, Russia that burned in ~1940. Across the density gradient, from 2010 - 2017 we inventoried larch trees and harvested ground-layer vegetation to estimate above ground contribution to C pools. We also quantified woody debris C pools and sampled below ground C pools (soil, fine roots, and coarse roots) in the organic + upper mineral soils. Our findings should highlight the potential for a climate-driven increase in fire severity to alter tree recruitment, successional dynamics, and C cycling in Siberian larch forests. 
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  4. Fire severity is increasing in larch forests of the Siberian Arctic as climate warms, and initial fire impacts on tree demographic processes could be an especially important determinant of long-term forest structure and carbon (C) dynamics. We hypothesized that changes in post-fire larch recruitment impact C accumulation through tree density impacts on understory microclimate and permafrost thaw. We tested these hypotheses by quantifying C pools across a Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) tree density gradient within a fire perimeter near Cherskiy, Russia that burned in ~1940. Across the density gradient, from 2010 - 2017 we inventoried larch trees and harvested ground-layer vegetation to estimate above ground contribution to C pools. We also quantified snag and woody debris C pools and sampled below ground C pools (soil, fine roots, and coarse roots) in the organic + upper mineral soils. Our findings should highlight the potential for a climate-driven increase in fire severity to alter tree recruitment, successional dynamics, and C cycling in Siberian larch forests. 
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  5. Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene. However, with climate change and more frequent and severe fires, shifts away from black spruce dominance to broadleaf or pine species are emerging, with implications for ecosystem functions including carbon sequestration, water and energy fluxes, and wildlife habitat. Here, we predict that such reductions in black spruce after fire may already be widespread given current trends in climate and fire. To test this, we synthesize data from 1,538 field sites across boreal North America to evaluate compositional changes in tree species following 58 recent fires (1989 to 2014). While black spruce was resilient following most fires (62%), loss of resilience was common, and spruce regeneration failed completely in 18% of 1,140 black spruce sites. In contrast, postfire regeneration never failed in forests dominated by jack pine, which also possesses an aerial seed bank, or broad-leaved trees. More complete combustion of the soil organic layer, which often occurs in better-drained landscape positions and in dryer duff, promoted compositional changes throughout boreal North America. Forests in western North America, however, were more vulnerable to change due to greater long-term climate moisture deficits. While we find considerable remaining resilience in black spruce forests, predicted increases in climate moisture deficits and fire activity will erode this resilience, pushing the system toward a tipping point that has not been crossed in several thousand years. 
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  6. null (Ed.)
    The transition zone between the northern boreal forest and the arctic tundra, known as the tundra-taiga ecotone (TTE) has undergone rapid warming in recent decades. In response to this warming, tree density, growth, and stand productivity are expected to increase. Increases in tree density have the potential to negate the positive impacts of warming on tree growth through a reduction in the active layer and an increase in competitive interactions. We assessed the effects of tree density on tree growth and climate-growth responses of Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi) and on trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the TTE of Northeast Siberia. We examined 19 mature forest stands that all established after a fire in 1940 and ranged in tree density from 300 to 37,000 stems ha-1. High density stands with shallow active layers had lower tree growth, higher stand productivity, and more negative growth responses to growing season temperatures compared to low density stands with deep active layers. Variation in stand productivity across the density gradient was not captured by Landsat derived NDVI, but NDVI did capture annual variations in stand productivity. Our results suggest that the expected increases in tree density following fires at the TTE may effectively limit tree growth and that NDVI is unlikely to capture increasing productivity associated with changes in tree density. 
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