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Abstract Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since the 1970s; relatively few coral reefs still exhibit a mean live coral cover of >10%. Additional work is needed to characterize future climate stressors on coral reefs in the GoM and the Caribbean Sea. Here, we use climate model simulations spanning the period of 2015–2100 to partition and assess the individual impacts of climate stressors on corals in the GoM and the western Caribbean Sea. We use a top‐down modeling framework to diagnose future projected changes in thermal stress and ocean acidification and discuss its implications for coral reef ecosystems. We find that ocean temperatures increase by 2°C–3°C over the 21st century, and surpass reported regional bleaching thresholds by mid‐century. Whereas ocean acidification occurs, the rate and magnitude of temperature changes outpace and outweigh the impacts of changes in aragonite saturation state. A framework for quantifying and communicating future risks in the GoM and Caribbean using reef risk projection maps is discussed. Without substantial mitigation efforts, the combined impact of increasing ocean temperatures and acidification are likely to stress most existing corals in the GoM and the Caribbean, with widespread economic and ecological consequences. 

Abstract Stable oxygen isotopic ratios in corals (δ¹⁸O_coral) are commonly utilized to reconstruct climate variability beyond the limit of instrumental observations. These measurements provide constraints on past seawater temperature, due to the thermodynamics of isotopic fractionation, but also past salinity, as both salinity and seawater δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_sw) are similarly affected by precipitation/evaporation, advection, and other processes. We use historical observations, isotope‐enabled model simulations, and the PAGES Iso2k database to assess the potential of δ¹⁸O_coralto provide information on past salinity. Using ‘‘pseudocorals’’ to represent δ¹⁸O_coralas a function of observed or simulated temperature and salinity/δ¹⁸O_sw, we find that δ¹⁸O_swcontributes up to 89% of δ¹⁸O_coralvariability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool. Although uncertainty in the δ¹⁸O_sw‐salinity relationship influences the inferred salinity variability, corals from these sites could provide valuable δ¹⁸O_swreconstructions. Coordinated in situ monitoring of salinity and δ¹⁸O_swis vital for improving estimates of hydroclimatic change. 

Ocean radiocarbon (14C) is a proxy for air-sea exchange, vertical and horizontal mixing, and water mass identification. Here, we present five pre- to post-bomb coral Δ14C records from West Flower Garden Bank and Santiaguillo reefs in the Gulf of Mexico, Boca de Medio, and Isla Tortuga near the Cariaco Basin north of Venezuela. To assess basin-wide Δ14C variability, we compiled the Atlantic Ocean reef-building surface coral Δ14C records (24 corals and 28 data sets in total) with these new records. Cumulatively, the Δ14C records, on their independent age models, reveal the onset of post-bomb Δ14C trends in 1958 ±1 to 2 years. A general decrease in maximum Δ14C values occurs with decreasing latitude, reflecting the balance between air-sea gas exchange and surface water residence time, vertical mixing, and horizontal advection. A slightly larger atmospheric imprint in the northern sites and relatively greater vertical mixing and/or advection of low-14C waters influence the southern Caribbean and eastern Atlantic sites. The eastern Atlantic sites, due to upwelling, have the lowest post-bomb Δ14C values. Equatorial currents from the eastern Atlantic transport low Δ14C water towards the western South Atlantic and southern Caribbean sites. Decadal Δ14C averages for the pre-bomb interval (1750–1949) for the low latitude western Atlantic are relatively constant within analytical (3–5‰) and chronological uncertainties (~1–2 years) due to mixing and air-sea exchange. The compiled Δ14C records provide updated regional marine Δ14C values for marine reservoir corrections. 

Ocean radiocarbon (14C) is a proxy for air-sea exchange, vertical and horizontal mixing, and water mass identification. Here, we present five pre- to post-bomb coral Δ14C records from West Flower Garden Bank and Santiaguillo reefs in the Gulf of Mexico, Boca de Medio, and Isla Tortuga near the Cariaco Basin north of Venezuela. To assess basin-wide Δ14C variability, we compiled the Atlantic Ocean reef-building surface coral Δ14C records (24 corals and 28 data sets in total) with these new records. Cumulatively, the Δ14C records, on their independent age models, reveal the onset of post-bomb Δ14C trends in 1958 ±1 to 2 years. A general decrease in maximum Δ14C values occurs with decreasing latitude, reflecting the balance between air-sea gas exchange and surface water residence time, vertical mixing, and horizontal advection. A slightly larger atmospheric imprint in the northern sites and relatively greater vertical mixing and/or advection of low-14C waters influence the southern Caribbean and eastern Atlantic sites. The eastern Atlantic sites, due to upwelling, have the lowest post-bomb Δ14C values. Equatorial currents from the eastern Atlantic transport low Δ14C water towards the western South Atlantic and southern Caribbean sites. Decadal Δ14C averages for the pre-bomb interval (1750–1949) for the low latitude western Atlantic are relatively constant within analytical (3–5‰) and chronological uncertainties (∼1–2 years) due to mixing and air-sea exchange. The compiled Δ14C records provide updated regional marine Δ14C values for marine reservoir corrections. 

The proposed Anthropocene Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) candidate site of West Flower Garden Bank (27.8762°N, 93.8147°W) is an open ocean location in the Gulf of Mexico with a submerged coral reef and few direct human impacts. Corals contain highly accurate and precise (<±1 year) internal chronologies, similar to tree rings, and their exoskeletons are formed of aragonite and can be preserved in the rock record. Here we present results from a large Siderastrea siderea coral (core 05WFGB3; 1755–2005 CE) sampled with annual and monthly resolutions that show clear markers of global and regional human impacts. Atmospheric nuclear bomb testing by-products (¹⁴C,^239+240Pu) have clear increases in this coral starting in 1957 for¹⁴C and the first increase in 1956 for^239+240Pu (potential bases for the Anthropocene GSSP). Coral δ¹³C declined especially after 1956 consistent with the Suess Effect resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. Coral skeletal δ¹⁵N starts to increase in 1963 corresponding with the increase in agricultural fertilizers. Coral Hg concentrations (1933–1980) loosely track fluctuations in industrial pollution and coral Ba/Ca increases from 1965–1983 when offshore oil operations expand after 1947. Coral temperature proxies contain the 20th-century global warming trend whereas coral growth declines during this interval. 

Abstract. The response of the hydrological cycle to anthropogenic climatechange, especially across the tropical oceans, remains poorly understood due to the scarcity of long instrumental temperature and hydrological records. Massive shallow-water corals are ideally suited to reconstructing past oceanic variability as they are widely distributed across the tropics,rapidly deposit calcium carbonate skeletons that continuously record ambient environmental conditions, and can be sampled at monthly to annualresolution. Climate reconstructions based on corals primarily use the stable oxygen isotope composition (δ18O), which acts as a proxy for sea surface temperature (SST), and the oxygen isotope composition ofseawater (δ18Osw), a measure of hydrological variability. Increasingly, coral δ18O time series are paired with time series of strontium-to-calcium ratios (Sr/Ca), a proxy for SST, from the same coral to quantify temperature and δ18Osw variabilitythrough time. To increase the utility of such reconstructions, we presentthe CoralHydro2k database, a compilation of published, peer-reviewed coral Sr/Ca and δ18O records from the Common Era (CE). The database contains 54 paired Sr/Ca–δ18O records and 125 unpaired Sr/Ca or δ18O records, with 88 % of these records providing data coverage from 1800 CE to the present. A quality-controlled set of metadata with standardized vocabulary and units accompanies each record, informing the useof the database. The CoralHydro2k database tracks large-scale temperatureand hydrological variability. As such, it is well-suited for investigationsof past climate variability, comparisons with climate model simulationsincluding isotope-enabled models, and application in paleodata-assimilation projects. The CoralHydro2k database is available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format with serializations in MATLAB, R, and Python and can be downloaded from the NOAA National Center for Environmental Information's Paleoclimate Data Archive at https://doi.org/10.25921/yp94-v135 (Walter et al., 2022). 

Recent research has linked the climate variability associated with ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to impacts rippling throughout environmental, economic, and social systems. This research reviews recent literature through 2021 in which we identify linkages among the major modes of climate variability, in the form of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, and the impacts to temperature and precipitation of the South-Central United States (SCUSA), consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The SCUSA is an important areal focus for this analysis because it straddles the ecotone between humid and arid climates in the United States and has a growing population, diverse ecosystems, robust agricultural and other economic sectors including the potential for substantial wind and solar energy generation. Whereas a need exists to understand atmospheric variability due to the cascading impacts through ecological and social systems, our understanding is complicated by the positioning of the SCUSA between subtropical and extratropical circulation features and the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the related Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMO/AMV), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Variability (PDO/PDV) have been shown to be important modulators of temperature and precipitation variables at the monthly, seasonal, and interannual scales, and the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the SCUSA. By reviewing these teleconnection impacts in the region alongside updated seasonal correlation maps, this research provides more accessible and comparable results for interdisciplinary use on climate impacts beyond the atmospheric-environmental sciences. 

New instrumentation and growing modeling needs in the Earth sciences are driving a renewed effort to compile and curate seawater oxygen isotope data in a centralized, accessible database.