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Abstract Climate change is expected to induce shifts in the composition, structure and functioning of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Increases in the frequency and severity of tundra fires have the potential to catalyse vegetation transitions with far‐reaching local, regional and global consequences.We propose that post‐fire tundra recovery, coupled with climate change, may not necessarily lead to pre‐fire conditions. Our hypothesis, based on surveys and literature, suggests two climate–fire driven trajectories. One trajectory results in increased woody vegetation under low fire frequency; the other results in grass dominance under high frequency.Future research should address uncertainties regarding possible tundra ecosystem shifts linked to fires, using methods that encompass greater temporal and spatial scales than previously addressed. More case studies, especially in underrepresented regions and ecosystem types, are essential to broaden the empirical basis for forecasts and potential fire management strategies.Synthesis. Our review synthesises current knowledge on post‐fire vegetation trajectories in Arctic tundra ecosystems, highlighting potential transitions and alternative ecosystem states and their implications. We discuss challenges in defining and predicting these trajectories as well as future directions. 

Abstract A significant warming effect on arctic tundra is greening. Although this increase in predominantly woody vegetation has been linked to increases in gross primary productivity, increasing temperatures also stimulate ecosystem respiration. We present a novel analysis from small-scale plot measurements showing that the shape of the temperature- and light-dependent sink-to-source threshold (where net ecosystem exchange (NEE) equals zero) differs between two tussock tundra ecosystems differing in leaf area index (LAI). At the higher LAI site, the threshold is exceeded (i.e the ecosystem becomes a source) at relatively higher temperatures under low light but at lower temperatures under high light. At the lower LAI site, the threshold is exceeded at relatively lower temperatures under low light but at higher temperatures under high light. We confirmed this response at a single site where LAI was experimentally increased. This suggests the carbon balance of the tundra may be sensitive to small increases in temperature under low light, but that this effect may be significantly offset by increases in LAI. Importantly, we found that this LAI effect is reversed under high light, and so in a warming tundra, greater vegetation cover could have a progressively negative effect on net carbon uptake. 

Abstract Terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems regulate climate at local to global scales through exchanges of energy and matter with the atmosphere and assist with climate change mitigation through nature‐based climate solutions. Climate science is no longer a study of the physics of the atmosphere and oceans, but also the ecology of the biosphere. This is the promise of Earth system science: to transcend academic disciplines to enable study of the interacting physics, chemistry, and biology of the planet. However, long‐standing tension in protecting, restoring, and managing forest ecosystems to purposely improve climate evidences the difficulties of interdisciplinary science. For four centuries, forest management for climate betterment was argued, legislated, and ultimately dismissed, when nineteenth century atmospheric scientists narrowly defined climate science to the exclusion of ecology. Today's Earth system science, with its roots in global models of climate, unfolds in similar ways to the past. With Earth system models, geoscientists are again defining the ecology of the Earth system. Here we reframe Earth system science so that the biosphere and its ecology are equally integrated with the fluid Earth to enable Earth system prediction for planetary stewardship. Central to this is the need to overcome an intellectual heritage to the models that elevates geoscience and marginalizes ecology and local land knowledge. The call for kilometer‐scale atmospheric and ocean models, without concomitant scientific and computational investment in the land and biosphere, perpetuates the geophysical view of Earth and will not fully provide the comprehensive actionable information needed for a changing climate. 

Abstract. Studies in recent decades have shown strong evidence of physical and biological changes in the Arctic tundra, largely in response to rapid rates of warming. Given the important implications of these changes for ecosystem services, hydrology, surface energy balance, carbon budgets, and climate feedbacks, research on the trends and patterns of these changes is becoming increasingly important and can help better constrain estimates of local, regional, and global impacts as well as inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite this great need, scientific understanding of tundra ecology and change remains limited, largely due to the inaccessibility of this region and less intensive studies compared to other terrestrial biomes. A synthesis of existing datasets from past field studies can make field data more accessible and open up possibilities for collaborative research as well as for investigating and informing future studies. Here, we synthesize field datasets of vegetation and active-layer properties from the Alaskan tundra, one of the most well-studied tundra regions. Given the potentially increasing intensive fire regimes in the tundra, fire history and severity attributes have been added to data points where available. The resulting database is a resource that future investigators can employ to analyze spatial and temporal patterns in soil, vegetation, and fire disturbance-related environmental variables across the Alaskan tundra. This database, titled the Synthesized Alaskan Tundra Field Database (SATFiD), can be accessed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC) for Biogeochemical Dynamics (Chen et al., 2023: https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2177). 

Abstract Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm −2 ) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types. 

Abstract Photosynthesis of terrestrial ecosystems in the Arctic-Boreal region is a critical part of the global carbon cycle. Solar-induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), a promising proxy for photosynthesis with physiological insight, has been used to track gross primary production (GPP) at regional scales. Recent studies have constructed empirical relationships between SIF and eddy covariance-derived GPP as a first step to predicting global GPP. However, high latitudes pose two specific challenges: (a) Unique plant species and land cover types in the Arctic–Boreal region are not included in the generalized SIF-GPP relationship from lower latitudes, and (b) the complex terrain and sub-pixel land cover further complicate the interpretation of the SIF-GPP relationship. In this study, we focused on the Arctic-Boreal vulnerability experiment (ABoVE) domain and evaluated the empirical relationships between SIF for high latitudes from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and a state-of-the-art machine learning GPP product (FluxCom). For the first time, we report the regression slope, linear correlation coefficient, and the goodness of the fit of SIF-GPP relationships for Arctic-Boreal land cover types with extensive spatial coverage. We found several potential issues specific to the Arctic-Boreal region that should be considered: (a) unrealistically high FluxCom GPP due to the presence of snow and water at the subpixel scale; (b) changing biomass distribution and SIF-GPP relationship along elevational gradients, and (c) limited perspective and misrepresentation of heterogeneous land cover across spatial resolutions. Taken together, our results will help improve the estimation of GPP using SIF in terrestrial biosphere models and cope with model-data uncertainties in the Arctic-Boreal region. 

Abstract Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the “firehose” of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways towards mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future. 

We use the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to examine the responses of twelve ecosystems - from the arctic to the tropics and from grasslands to forests - to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), warming, and 20% decreases or increases in annual precipitation. The ecosystems respond synergistically to elevated CO2, warming, and decreased precipitation combined because higher water use efficiency with elevated CO2 and higher fertility with warming compensate for the responses to drought. The response to elevated CO2, warming, and increased precipitation combined is additive. We analyze changes in ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration based on four nitrogen (N) and four phosphorus (P) attribution factors of the ecosystem: (1) changes in total N and P in the ecosystem, (2) changes in the distribution of N and P between vegetation and soil, (3) changes in vegetation C:N and C:P ratios, and (4) changes in soil C:N and C:P ratios. In the combined CO2 and climate change simulations, all ecosystems gain C. The relative contribution of changes in these four N and P attribution factors to changes in ecosystem C storage varies among ecosystems because of differences in the initial distributions of N and P between vegetation and soil and the openness of the ecosystem N and P cycles. The net transfer of N and P from soil (low C:N and C:P) to vegetation (high C:N and C:P) dominates the C response of forests. For tundra and grassland ecosystems, the C gain is also associated with an increase in soil C:N and C:P. In ecosystems with symbiotic N fixation, gains in C resulted from the accumulation of N and sometimes P. Because of differences in the openness of the N versus P cycles and the distribution of organic matter between vegetation and soil, changes in the N attribution factors do not always parallel changes in the P attribution factors. These findings highlight how differences among ecosystems in C-nutrient interactions and the amount of woody biomass interact to shape ecosystem C sequestration under simulated global change. By using a single model framework across multiple ecosystems, we suggest that a better understanding of the factors influencing the openness of the N and P cycles, controls on N and P distribution within ecosystems, and controls on ecosystem stoichiometry is needed to improve the representation of nutrient effects on C sequestration in ecosystems and their responses to elevated CO2 and climate change.