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Through a very careful analysis Kolopanis and collaborators identified a negative power spectrum (PS) systematic. The 21 cm cosmology community has assumed that any observational systematics would add power, as negative PS are non-physical. In addition to the mystery of their origin, negative PS systematics raise the spectre of artificially lowering upper limits on the 21 cm PS. It appears that the source of the negative PS systematics is a subtle interaction between choices in how the PS estimate is calculated and baseline-dependent systematic power. In this paper, we present a statistical model of baseline dependent systematics to explore how negative PS systematics can appear and their statistical characteristics. This leads us to recommendations on when and how to consider negative PS systematics when reporting observational 21 cm cosmology upper limits.

We present deep upper limits from the 2014 Murchison Widefield Array Phase I observing season, with a particular emphasis on identifying the spectral fingerprints of extremely faint radio frequency interference (RFI) contamination in the 21 cm power spectra (PS). After meticulous RFI excision involving a combination of theSSINSRFI flagger and a series of PS-based jackknife tests, our lowest upper limit on the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) 21 cm PS signal is Δ²≤ 1.61 × 10⁴mK²atk= 0.258h Mpc⁻¹at a redshift of 7.1 using 14.7 hr of data. By leveraging our understanding of how even fainter RFI is likely to contaminate the EoR PS, we are able to identify ultrafaint RFI signals in the cylindrical PS. Surprisingly this signature is most obvious in PS formed with less than 1 hr of data, but is potentially subdominant to other systematics in multiple-hour integrations. Since the total RFI budget in a PS detection is quite strict, this nontrivial integration behavior suggests a need to more realistically model coherently integrated ultrafaint RFI in PS measurements so that its potential contribution to a future detection can be diagnosed.

We present an analysis of Epoch of Reionization (EoR) data from Phase II of the Murchison Widefield Array using the simpleds delay spectrum pipeline. Prior work analysed the same observations using the fhd/εppsilon imaging pipeline, and so the present analysis represents the first time that both principal types of 21 cm cosmology power spectrum estimation approaches have been applied to the same data set. Our limits on the 21 cm power spectrum amplitude span a range in k space of $|k| \lt 1 \, h_{100}\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ with a lowest measurement of Δ2(k) ≤ 4.58 × 103 mK2 at $k = 0.190\, h_{100}\, \rm {Mpc}^{-1}$ and z = 7.14. In order to achieve these limits, we need to mitigate a previously unidentified common mode systematic in the data set. If not accounted for, this systematic introduces an overall negative bias that can make foreground contaminated measurements appear as stringent, noise-limited constraints on the 21 cm signal amplitude. The identification of this systematic highlights the risk in modelling systematics as positive-definite contributions to the power spectrum and in ‘conservatively’ interpreting all measurements as upper limits.