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Abstract Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon^1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere^3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain^5–7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections^7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration. 

Summary Some rhizomatous grass and sedge species form tussocks that impact ecosystem structure and function. Despite their importance, tussock development and size controls are poorly understood due to the decadal to centennial timescales over which tussocks form.We explored mechanisms regulating tussock development and size in a ubiquitous arctic tussock sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) using field observations and a mass balance model coupled with a tiller population model. Model–data fusion was used to quantify parameter and prediction uncertainty, determine model sensitivity, and test hypotheses on the factors regulating tussock size.The model accurately captured the dynamics of tussock development, characteristics, and size observed in the field. Tussock growth approached maximal size within several decades, which was determined by feedbacks between the mass balance of tussock root necromass and density‐dependent tillering. The model also predicted that maximal tussock size was primarily regulated by tiller root productivity and necromass bulk density and less so by tiller demography. These predictions were corroborated by field observations of tussock biomass and root characteristics.The study highlights the importance of belowground processes in regulating tussock development and size and enhances our understanding of the influence of tussocks on arctic ecosystem structure and function.