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Calling to report crime represents public cooperation with the police. When rational individuals are predicted to report (and when not) is still poorly understood. We study an interdependent security game under threat of a costly event that can only occur once or is perceived as so costly that the threat of the event occurring more than once is (in foresight) perceived as no more costly than the event occurring only once. Our analysis suggests how the interactions among the benefits, costs and neighborhood effects of police response might affect reporting. When there is spatial contagion of crime, rational individuals may choose to report when more of their neighbors report. When there is spatial contagion of deterrence, the relationship is reversed. 

Narrative data spans all disciplines and provides a coherent model of the world to the reader or viewer. Recent advancement in machine learning and Large Language Models (LLMs) have enable great strides in analyzing natural language. However, Large language models (LLMs) still struggle with complex narrative arcs as well as narratives containing conflicting information. Recent work indicates LLMs augmented with external knowledge bases can improve the accuracy and interpretability of the resulting models. In this work, we analyze the effectiveness of applying knowledge graphs (KGs) in understanding true-crime podcast data from both classical Natural Language Processing (NLP) and LLM approaches. We directly compare KG-augmented LLMs (KGLLMs) with classical methods for KG construction, topic modeling, and sentiment analysis. Additionally, the KGLLM allows us to query the knowledge base in natural language and test its ability to factually answer questions. We examine the robustness of the model to adversarial prompting in order to test the model's ability to deal with conflicting information. Finally, we apply classical methods to understand more subtle aspects of the text such as the use of hearsay and sentiment in narrative construction and propose future directions. Our results indicate that KGLLMs outperform LLMs on a variety of metrics, are more robust to adversarial prompts, and are more capable of summarizing the text into topics. 

There is growing interest in U.S. cities to shift resources towards community-led solutions to crime and disorder. However, there is a simultaneous need to provide community organizations with access to real-time data to facilitate decision making, to which only the police normally have access. In this work we present a low-cost gunshot detection system with localization that has been developed for community-based violence interruption. The distributed real-time gunshot detection sensor network is linked to a mobile phone-based alert and tasking system for exclusive use by civilian gang interventionists. Here we present details on the system architecture and gunshot detection model, which consists of an Audio Spectrogram Transformer (AST) neural network. We then combine gradient maps of the input to the AST for time of arrival identification with a Bayesian maximum a posteriori estimation procedure to identify the location of gunshots. We conduct several experiments using simulated data, open data from the commercial ShotSpotter detection system in Pittsburgh, and data collected using our devices during live-fire experiments at the Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department (IMPD) gun firing range. We then discuss potential applications of the system and directions for future research. 

Research has shown that police officer involved shootings, misconduct and excessive use of force complaints exhibit network effects, where officers are at greater risk of being involved in these incidents when they socialize with officers who have a history of use of force and misconduct. In this work, we first construct a network survival model for the time-to-event of use of force incidents involving new police trainees. The model includes network effects of the diffusion of risk from field training officer (FTO) to trainee. We then introduce a network rewiring algorithm to maximize the expected time to use of force events upon completion of field training. We study several versions of the algorithm, including constraints that encourage demographic diversity of FTOs. Using data from Indianapolis, we show that rewiring the network can increase the expected time (in days) of a recruit's first use of force incident by 8%. We then discuss the potential benefits and challenges associated with implementing such an algorithm in practice. 

While random permutations of point processes are useful for generating counterfactuals in bivariate interaction tests, such permutations require that the underlying intensity be separable. In many real‐world datasets where clustering or inhibition is present, such an assumption does not hold. Here, we introduce a simple combinatorial optimization algorithm that generates second‐order preserving (SOP) point process permutations, for example, permutations of the times of events such that the function of the permuted process matches the function of the data. We apply the algorithm to synthetic data generated by a self‐exciting Hawkes process and a self‐avoiding point process, along with data from Los Angeles on earthquakes and arsons and data from Indianapolis on law enforcement drug seizures and overdoses. In all cases, we are able to generate a diverse sample of permuted point processes where the distribution of the functions closely matches that of the data. We then show how SOP point process permutations can be used in two applications: (1) bivariate Knox tests and (2) data augmentation to improve deep learning‐based space‐time forecasts.