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Abstract Climate forecasts project change not only in the mean of climate variables but also in their variance. If these dual changes interact, then future ecological dynamics will be difficult to predict using current experimental approaches, which typically change the mean or impose a single extreme event, such as drought. We designed a new field experiment to factorially reduce mean precipitation and increase its interannual variability. Across 4 years, drier, more variable precipitation additively reduced aboveground primary productivity by 48%–69% and interactively reduced the dominant plant species, but had no effect on the plant species predicted to dominate in the future, which could lead to state transition. Drier, more variable precipitation also interactively reduced biodiversity more than either climate factor alone, with 37%–42% fewer plant species than under ambient conditions, a pattern that matched declining richness during the past 20 years of ongoing climate change. Drier, more variable precipitation restructured the composition and spatiotemporal variation of the plant community. Altered precipitation mean or variance affected 14% of plant species, with eight species sensitive to the mean × variance interaction. Results suggest that future forecasts of plant community structure may be inadequate if they fail to incorporate climate mean × variance interactions. 

Abstract Extensive ecological research has investigated extreme climate events or long‐term changes in average climate variables, but changes in year‐to‐year (interannual) variability may also cause important biological responses, even if the mean climate is stable. The environmental stochasticity that is a hallmark of climate variability can trigger unexpected biological responses that include tipping points and state transitions, and large differences in weather between consecutive years can also propagate antecedent effects, in which current biological responses depend on responsiveness to past perturbations. However, most studies to date cannot predict ecological responses to rising variance because the study of interannual variance requires empirical platforms that generate long time series. Furthermore, the ecological consequences of increases in climate variance could depend on the mean climate in complex ways; therefore, effective ecological predictions will require determining responses to both nonstationary components of climate distributions: the mean and the variance. We introduce a new design to resolve the relative importance of, and interactions between, a drier mean climate and greater climate variance, which are dual components of ongoing climate change in the southwestern United States. The Mean × Variance Experiment (MVE) adds two novel elements to prior field infrastructure methods: (1) factorial manipulation of variance together with the climate mean and (2) the creation of realistic, stochastic precipitation regimes. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of the experimental design, including sensor networks and PhenoCams to automate monitoring. We replicated MVE across ecosystem types at the northern edge of the Chihuahuan Desert biome as a central component of the Sevilleta Long‐Term Ecological Research Program. Soil sensors detected significant treatment effects on both the mean and interannual variability in soil moisture, and PhenoCam imagery captured change in vegetation cover. Our design advances field methods to newly compare the sensitivities of populations, communities, and ecosystem processes to climate mean × variance interactions. 

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a significant role in driving seasonal patterns in land-atmosphere interactions and ecosystem productivity, and is a key factor to consider when modeling or investigating ecological and land-surface dynamics. To integrate phenology in ecological research ultimately requires the application of carefully curated and quality controlled phenological datasets that span multiple years and include a wide range of different ecosystems and plant functional types. By using digital cameras to record images of plant canopies every 30 min, pixel-level information from the visible red-green-blue color channels can be quantified to evaluate canopy greenness (defined as the green chromatic coordinate, GCC), and how it varies in space and time. These phenological cameras (i.e., “PhenoCams”) offer a pragmatic and effective way to measure and provide phenology data for both research and education. Here, in this dataset descriptor, we present the PhenoCam dataset version 3 (V3.0), providing significant updates relative to prior releases. PhenoCam V3.0 includes 738 unique sites and a total of 4805.5 site years, a 170 % increase relative to PhenoCam V2.0 (1783 site years), with notable expansion of network coverage for evergreen broadleaf forests, understory vegetation, grasslands, wetlands, and agricultural systems. Furthermore, in this updated release, we now include a PhenoCam-based estimate of the normalized difference vegetation index (cameraNDVI), calculated from back-to-back visible and visible+near-infrared images acquired from approximately 75 % of cameras in the network, which utilize a sliding infrared cut filter. Both GCC and cameraNDVI showed similar, but somewhat unique, patterns in canopy greenness and VIS vs. NIR reflectance, across various ecosystems, indicating their consistent ability to record phenological variability. However, we did find that at most sites, GCC time series had less variability and fewer outliers, representing a smoother signal of canopy greenness and phenology. Overall, PhenoCam greenness as measured by both GCC and cameraNDVI provides expanded opportunities for studying phenology and tracking ecological changes, with potential applications to the evaluation of satellite data products, earth system and ecosystem modeling, and understanding phenologically mediated ecosystem processes. The PhenoCam V3.0 data release is publicly available for download from the Oak Ridge National Lab Distributed Active Archive Center: the source imagery used to derive phenology information is available at https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2364 (Ballou et al., 2025), and the summarized phenology data are available at https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2389 (Zimmerman et al., 2025).