Accurate and cost-effective quantification of the carbon cycle for agroecosystems at decision-relevant scales is critical to mitigating climate change and ensuring sustainable food production. However, conventional process-based or data-driven modeling approaches alone have large prediction uncertainties due to the complex biogeochemical processes to model and the lack of observations to constrain many key state and flux variables. Here we propose a Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (KGML) framework that addresses the above challenges by integrating knowledge embedded in a process-based model, high-resolution remote sensing observations, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using the U.S. Corn Belt as a testbed, we demonstrate that KGML can outperform conventional process-based and black-box ML models in quantifying carbon cycle dynamics. Our high-resolution approach quantitatively reveals 86% more spatial detail of soil organic carbon changes than conventional coarse-resolution approaches. Moreover, we outline a protocol for improving KGML via various paths, which can be generalized to develop hybrid models to better predict complex earth system dynamics.
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Abstract Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025 -
Training machine learning (ML) models for scientific problems is often challenging due to limited observation data. To overcome this challenge, prior works commonly pre-train ML models using simulated data before having them fine-tuned with small real data. Despite the promise shown in initial research across different domains, these methods cannot ensure improved performance after fine-tuning because (i) they are not designed for extracting generalizable physics-aware features during pre-training, (ii) the features learned from pre-training can be distorted by the fine-tuning process. In this paper, we propose a new learning method for extracting, preserving, and adapting physics-aware features. We build a knowledge-guided neural network (KGNN) model based on known dependencies amongst physical variables, which facilitate extracting physics-aware feature representation from simulated data. Then we fine-tune this model by alternately updating the encoder and decoder of the KGNN model to enhance the prediction while preserving the physics-aware features learned through pre-training. We further propose to adapt the model to new testing scenarios via a teacher-student learning framework based on the model uncertainty. The results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms many baselines by a good margin, even using sparse training data or under out-of-sample testing scenarios.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2025
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Accurate prediction of water flow is of utmost importance, particularly for ensuring water supply and informing early actions for floods and droughts. Existing flow prediction methods rely on the input of weather drivers, which hinders their applicability to monitoring small headwater streams due to the limited spatial resolution of existing weather datasets. This paper introduces a new dataset with frequent imagery on streams for water monitoring tasks. Our objective is to automatically predict streamflow for each stream site using frequent images taken at a sub-hourly scale. To overcome the challenge of limited labels for certain stream sites, we employ knowledge transfer from well-observed sites to poorly-observed sites via domain adaptation. As each stream site involves highly variable time series data over long periods, we introduce a novel method STCGAN (Spatial-Temporal Cycle Generative Adversarial Network), which incorporates temporal context by conditioning on the sequence's time and learns overall trends of stream flow variation. It integrates the predictive modeling of streamflow with the cyclic generative process and enhances the prediction with data augmentation using generated synthetic samples. Our experiments demonstrate superior performance of the proposed method using data collected from the West Brook area located in western Massachusetts, US. The proposed method can be further extended to selectively combine information from multiple well-observed stream sites, leading to improved overall performance.more » « less
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When dealing with data from distinct locations, machine learning algorithms tend to demonstrate an implicit preference of some locations over the others, which constitutes biases that sabotage the spatial fairness of the algorithm. This unfairness can easily introduce biases in subsequent decision-making given broad adoptions of learning-based solutions in practice. However, locational biases in AI are largely understudied. To mitigate biases over locations, we propose a locational meta-referee (Meta-Ref) to oversee the few-shot meta-training and meta-testing of a deep neural network. Meta-Ref dynamically adjusts the learning rates for training samples of given locations to advocate a fair performance across locations, through an explicit consideration of locational biases and the characteristics of input data. We present a three-phase training framework to learn both a meta-learning-based predictor and an integrated Meta-Ref that governs the fairness of the model. Once trained with a distribution of spatial tasks, Meta-Ref is applied to samples from new spatial tasks (i.e., regions outside the training area) to promote fairness during the fine-tune step. We carried out experiments with two case studies on crop monitoring and transportation safety, which show Meta-Ref can improve locational fairness while keeping the overall prediction quality at a similar level.
Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 25, 2025 -
Accurate prediction of water quality and quantity is crucial for sustainable development and human well-being. However, existing data-driven methods often suffer from spatial biases in model performance due to heterogeneous data, limited observations, and noisy sensor data. To overcome these challenges, we propose Fair-Graph, a novel graph-based recurrent neural network that leverages interrelated knowledge from multiple rivers to predict water flow and temperature within large-scale stream networks. Additionally, we introduce node-specific graph masks for information aggregation and adaptation to enhance prediction over heterogeneous river segments. To reduce performance disparities across river segments, we introduce a centralized coordination strategy that adjusts training priorities for segments. We evaluate the prediction of water temperature within the Delaware River Basin, and the prediction of streamflow using simulated data from U.S. National Water Model in the Houston River network. The results showcase improvements in predictive performance and highlight the proposed model's ability to maintain spatial fairness over different river segments.
Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 25, 2025 -
Fairness-awareness has emerged as an essential building block for the responsible use of artificial intelligence in real applications. In many cases, inequity in performance is due to the change in distribution over different regions. While techniques have been developed to improve the transferability of fairness, a solution to the problem is not always feasible with no samples from the new regions, which is a bottleneck for pure data-driven attempts. Fortunately, physics-based mechanistic models have been studied for many problems with major social impacts. We propose SimFair, a physics-guided fairness-aware learning framework, which bridges the data limitation by integrating physical-rule-based simulation and inverse modeling into the training design. Using temperature prediction as an example, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SimFair in fairness preservation.
Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 25, 2025