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Abstract Purpose of ReviewPreparing for pandemics requires a degree of interdisciplinary work that is challenging under the current paradigm. This review summarizes the challenges faced by the field of pandemic science and proposes how to address them. Recent FindingsThe structure of current siloed systems of research organizations hinders effective interdisciplinary pandemic research. Moreover, effective pandemic preparedness requires stakeholders in public policy and health to interact and integrate new findings rapidly, relying on a robust, responsive, and productive research domain. Neither of these requirements are well supported under the current system. SummaryWe propose a new paradigm for pandemic preparedness wherein interdisciplinary research and close collaboration with public policy and health practitioners can improve our ability to prevent, detect, and treat pandemics through tighter integration among domains, rapid and accurate integration, and translation of science to public policy, outreach and education, and improved venues and incentives for sustainable and robust interdisciplinary work. 

ABSTRACT Zoonotic pathogens pose a significant risk to human health, with spillover into human populations contributing to chronic disease, sporadic epidemics, and occasional pandemics. Despite the widely recognized burden of zoonotic spillover, our ability to identify which animal populations serve as primary reservoirs for these pathogens remains incomplete. This challenge is compounded when prevalence reaches detectable levels only at specific times of year. In these cases, statistical models designed to predict the timing of peak prevalence could guide field sampling for active infections. Here we develop a general model that leverages routinely collected serosurveillance data to optimize sampling for elusive pathogens. Using simulated data sets we show that our methodology reliably identifies times when pathogen prevalence is expected to peak. We then apply our method to two putativeEbolavirusreservoirs, straw-colored fruit bats (Eidolon helvum) and hammer-headed bats (Hypsignathus monstrosus) to predict when these species should be sampled to maximize the probability of detecting active infections. In addition to guiding future sampling of these species, our method yields predictions for the times of year that are most likely to produce future spillover events. The generality and simplicity of our methodology make it broadly applicable to a wide range of putative reservoir species where seasonal patterns of birth lead to predictable, but potentially short-lived, pulses of pathogen prevalence. AUTHOR SUMMARYMany deadly pathogens, such as Ebola, Lassa, and Nipah viruses, originate in wildlife and jump to human populations. When this occurs, human health is at risk. At the extreme, this can lead to pandemics such as the West African Ebola epidemic and the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the widely recognized risk wildlife pathogens pose to humans, identifying host species that serve as primary reservoirs for many pathogens remains challenging. Ebola is a notable example of a pathogen with an unconfirmed wildlife reservoir. A key obstacle to confirming reservoir hosts is sampling animals with active infections. Often, disease prevalence fluctuates seasonally in wildlife populations and only reaches detectable levels at certain times of year. In these cases, statistical models designed to predict the timing of peak prevalence could guide efficient field sampling for active infections. Therefore, we have developed a general model that uses serological data to predict times of year when pathogen prevalence is likely to peak. We demonstrate with simulated data that our method produces reliable predictions, and then apply our method to two hypothesized reservoirs for Ebola virus, straw-colored fruit bats and hammer-headed bats. Our method can be broadly applied to a range of potential reservoir species where seasonal patterns of birth can lead to predictable pulses of peak pathogen prevalence. Overall, our method can guide future sampling of reservoir populations and can also be used to make predictions for times of year that future outbreaks in human populations are most likely to occur. 

Successfully tackling many urgent challenges in socio-economically critical domains, such as public health and sustainability, requires a deeper understanding of causal relationships and interactions among a diverse spectrum of spatio-temporally distributed entities. In these applications, the ability to leverage spatio-temporal data to obtain causally based situational awareness and to develop informed forecasts to provide resilience at different scales is critical. While the promise of a causally grounded approach to these challenges is apparent, the core data technologies needed to achieve these are in the early stages and lack a framework to help realize their potential. In this article, we argue that there is an urgent need for a novel paradigm of spatio-causal research built on computational advances in spatio-temporal data and model integration, causal learning and discovery, large scale data- and model-driven simulations, emulations, and forecasting, as well as spatio-temporal data-driven and model-centric operational recommendations, and effective causally driven visualization and explanation. We thus provide a vision, and a road map, for spatio-causal situation awareness, forecasting, and planning.