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Abstract Future changes in the Beaufort Gyre liquid freshwater content (LFWC) are important for the local and global climate. However, traditional climate models cannot resolve oceanic and atmospheric eddies that are critical to the LFWC variations. In this study, we investigate physical processes controlling Beaufort Gyre LFWC changes in an eddy‐resolving simulation. The model simulation largely reproduces the observed LFWC changes, and projects a long‐term LFWC increase with an intensification of its decadal variability during the 21st century. Freshwater budget analysis suggests that future LFWC changes are strongly influenced by sea ice melt. The conversion from solid to liquid phase provides more liquid freshwater into the ocean. Meanwhile, sea ice loss enhances the efficiency of air‐sea momentum transfer, leading to increased wind‐driven freshwater convergence and its variability. The decadal variation of the LFWC will regulate Arctic freshwater exports and coincident with an O (0.5 Sv) change in the meridional overturning circulation. 

Abstract The existence of multiple equilibria (ice-covered and ice-free states) is explored using a set of coupled, nondimensional equations that describe the heat and salt balances in basins, such as the Arctic Ocean, that are subject to atmospheric forcing and two distinct water mass sources. Six nondimensional numbers describe the influences of atmospheric cooling, evaporation minus precipitation, solar radiation, atmospheric temperature, diapycnal mixing, and the temperature contrast between the two water masses. It is shown that multiple equilibria resulting from the dependence of albedo on ice cover exist over a wide range of parameter space, especially so in the weak mixing limit. Multiple equilibria can also occur if diapycnal mixing increases toO(10⁻⁴) m²s⁻¹or larger under ice-free conditions due to enhanced upward mixing of warm, salty water from below. Sensitivities to various forcing parameters are discussed. Significance StatementThe purpose of this study is to better understand under what circumstances high-latitude seas, such as the Arctic Ocean, can exist in either an ice-covered or an ice-free state. The temperature and salinity of the ocean, as well as the heat exchange with the atmosphere, are drastically different depending on which state the ocean is in. The theory presented here identifies how forcing from the atmosphere and ocean dynamics determines whether the ocean is ice covered, ice free, or possibly either one. 

Abstract Three dominant characteristics and underlying dynamics of the seasonal cycle in Baffin Bay are discussed. The study is based on a regional, high‐resolution coupled sea ice‐ocean numerical model that complements our understanding drawn from observations. Subject to forcing from the atmosphere, sea ice, Greenland, and other ocean basins, the ocean circulation exhibits complex seasonal variations that influence Arctic freshwater storage and export. The basin‐scale barotropic circulation is generally stronger (weaker) in summer (winter). The interior recirculation (∼2 Sv) is primarily driven by oscillating along‐topography surface stress. The volume transport along the Baffin Island coast is also influenced by Arctic inflows (∼0.6 Sv) via Smith Sound and Lancaster Sound with maximum (minimum) in June‐August (October‐December). In addition to the barotropic variation, the Baffin Island Current also has changing vertical structure with the upper‐ocean baroclinicity weakened in winter‐spring. It is due to a cross‐shelf circulation associated with spatially variable ice‐ocean stresses that flattens isopycnals. Greenland runoff and sea ice processes dominate buoyancy forcing to Baffin Bay. Opposite to the runoff that freshens the west Greenland shelf, stronger salinification by ice formation compared to freshening by ice melt enables a net densification in the interior of Baffin Bay. Net sea ice formation in the past 30 years contributes to ∼25% of sea ice export via Davis Strait. The seasonal variability in baroclinicity and water mass transformation changes in recent decades based on the simulation. 

Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating pace, increasing its contribution to the freshwater input into the Nordic Seas and the subpolar North Atlantic. It has been proposed that this increased freshwater may impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by affecting the stratification of the convective regions of the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. Observations of the transformation and pathways of meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet on the continental shelf and in the gyre interior, however, are lacking. Here, we report on noble gas derived observations of submarine meltwater distribution and transports in the East and West Greenland Current Systems of southern Greenland and around Cape Farewell. In southeast Greenland, submarine meltwater is concentrated in the East Greenland Coastal Current core with maximum concentrations of 0.8%, thus significantly diluted relative to fjord observations. It is found in water with density ranges from 1,024 to 1027.2 kg m⁻³and salinity from 30.6 to 34, which extends as deep as 250 m and as far offshore as 60 km on the Greenland shelf. Submarine meltwater transport on the shelf averages 5.0 ± 1.6 mSv which, if representative of the mean annual transport, represents 60%–80% of the total solid ice discharge from East Greenland and suggests relatively little offshore export of meltwater east and upstream of Cape Farewell. The location of the meltwater transport maximum shifts toward the shelfbreak around Cape Farewell, positioning the meltwater for offshore flux in regions of known cross‐shelf exchange along the West Greenland coast. 

Abstract. The Chukchi Slope Current is a westward-flowing currentalong the Chukchi slope, which carries Pacific-origin water from the Chukchishelf into the Canada Basin and helps set the regional hydrographicstructure and ecosystem. Using a set of experiments with an idealizedprimitive equation numerical model, we investigate the energetics of theslope current during the ice-covered period. Numerical calculations showthat the growth of surface eddies is suppressed by the ice friction, whileperturbations at mid-depths can grow into eddies, consistent with linearinstability analysis. However, because the ice stress is spatially variable,it is able to drive Ekman pumping to decrease the available potential energy(APE) and kinetic energy of both the mean flow and mesoscale eddies over avertical scale of 100 m, well outside the frictional Ekman layer. The rateat which the APE changes is determined by the vertical density flux, whichis negative as the ice-induced Ekman pumping advects lighter (denser) waterupward (downward). A scaling analysis shows that Ekman pumping will dominatethe release of APE for large-scale flows, but the effect of baroclinicinstability is also important when the horizontal scale of the mean flow isthe baroclinic deformation radius and the eddy velocity is comparable to themean flow velocity. Our numerical results highlight the importance of icefriction in the energetics of the slope current and eddies, and this may berelevant to other ice-covered regions.