skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: A Simple Model for Multiple Equilibria in Ice-Covered Oceans
Abstract The existence of multiple equilibria (ice-covered and ice-free states) is explored using a set of coupled, nondimensional equations that describe the heat and salt balances in basins, such as the Arctic Ocean, that are subject to atmospheric forcing and two distinct water mass sources. Six nondimensional numbers describe the influences of atmospheric cooling, evaporation minus precipitation, solar radiation, atmospheric temperature, diapycnal mixing, and the temperature contrast between the two water masses. It is shown that multiple equilibria resulting from the dependence of albedo on ice cover exist over a wide range of parameter space, especially so in the weak mixing limit. Multiple equilibria can also occur if diapycnal mixing increases toO(10−4) m2s−1or larger under ice-free conditions due to enhanced upward mixing of warm, salty water from below. Sensitivities to various forcing parameters are discussed. Significance StatementThe purpose of this study is to better understand under what circumstances high-latitude seas, such as the Arctic Ocean, can exist in either an ice-covered or an ice-free state. The temperature and salinity of the ocean, as well as the heat exchange with the atmosphere, are drastically different depending on which state the ocean is in. The theory presented here identifies how forcing from the atmosphere and ocean dynamics determines whether the ocean is ice covered, ice free, or possibly either one.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2211691
PAR ID:
10542690
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 
Publisher / Repository:
American Meteorological Society
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Physical Oceanography
Volume:
54
Issue:
10
ISSN:
0022-3670
Format(s):
Medium: X Size: p. 2087-2097
Size(s):
p. 2087-2097
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Here, we report an optical sensor for measuring millimeter-scale thermohaline density variations in the ocean. The instrument is based on a fiber Fabry–Perot white light interferometer, which can resolve the refractive index of water to better than 2 × 10−8within a sample volume smaller than 1 mm3at a sample rate of 500 Hz. This equates to detectable Absolute Salinity variations of 0.0001 g kg−1, temperature variations smaller than 0.0007°C, and density variations of 0.000 07 kg m−3. Data collected from laboratory characterization and a field deployment suggest the sensor could be useful as a gradiometer for measuring diapycnal mixing down to submillimeter scales. While obtaining high absolute accuracy in refractive index and density was not a primary consideration, the sensor was designed with such an eventual goal in mind, and various aspects of achieving it are discussed. Significance StatementAccurately measuring and modeling ocean salinity at the smallest scales remains an unsolved problem in oceanography. Such measurements would be beneficial to fully understand the vertical transport of heat and salt in the ocean, the effects of melting Arctic ice, and overall oceanic mixing. By achieving very high-resolution refractive index measurements at millimeter spatial scales, the in situ sensor technology reported here could begin to address these challenges. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract During the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT; ∼14.7–13.8 Ma), the global climate experienced rapid cooling, leading to modern‐like temperatures, precipitation patterns, and permanent ice sheets. However, proxy records indicate that atmospheric pCO2and regional climate conditions (SST, ice volume) were highly variable from 17 to 12.5 Ma and these changes were not always synchronous. Here, we report on a series of middle Miocene (∼16–12.5 Ma) simulations using the water isotope enabled earth system model (iCESM1.2) to explore the potential for multiple equilibrium states to explain the observed decoupling between pCO2and regional climates. Our simulations indicate that initial ocean conditions can significantly influence deep water formation in the North Atlantic and lead to multiple ocean equilibria. When the model is initiated from a cold state, residual cool surface water temperatures in the North Atlantic intensify Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC) and inhibit Arctic sea‐ice formation. When initiated from a warm state, the AMOC remains weak. The different ocean states drive differences in equator‐to‐pole sea surface temperature gradients and sea ice distributions through heat redistribution changes. These equilibria cause variations in temperature gradients and sea ice distribution due to changes in heat redistribution. Additionally, changes in ocean circulation and a reduced temperature gradient in the North Atlantic increase North Atlantic precipitation when the AMOC is strong. These findings underscore the importance of the ocean's initial state in shaping regional climate responses to atmospheric pCO2, potentially explaining regional climate pattern variability observed during the Miocene. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract Arctic Ocean warming and sea ice loss are closely linked to increased ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic and changes in surface heat fluxes. To quantitatively assess their respective roles, we use the 100-member Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), Large Ensemble over the 1920–2100 period. We first examine the Arctic Ocean warming in a heat budget framework by calculating the contributions from heat exchanges with atmosphere and sea ice and OHT across the Arctic Ocean gateways. Then we quantify how much anomalous heat from the ocean directly translates to sea ice loss and how much is lost to the atmosphere. We find that Arctic Ocean warming is driven primarily by increased OHT through the Barents Sea Opening, with additional contributions from the Fram Strait and Bering Strait OHTs. These OHT changes are driven mainly by warmer inflowing water rather than changes in volume transports across the gateways. The Arctic Ocean warming driven by OHT is partially damped by increased heat loss through the sea surface. Although absorbed shortwave radiation increases due to reduced surface albedo, this increase is compensated by increasing upwelling longwave radiation and latent heat loss. We also explicitly calculate the contributions of ocean–ice and atmosphere–ice heat fluxes to sea ice heat budget changes. Throughout the entire twentieth century as well as the early twenty-first century, the atmosphere is the main contributor to ice heat gain in summer, though the ocean’s role is not negligible. Over time, the ocean progressively becomes the main heat source for the ice as the ocean warms. Significance StatementArctic Ocean warming and sea ice loss are closely linked to increased ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic and changes in surface heat fluxes. Here we use 100 simulations from the same climate model to analyze future warming and sea ice loss. We find that Arctic Ocean warming is primarily driven by increased OHT through the Barents Sea Opening, though the Fram and Bering Straits are also important. This increased OHT is primarily due to warmer inflowing water rather than changing ocean currents. This ocean heat gain is partially compensated by heat loss through the sea surface. During the twentieth century and early twenty-first century, sea ice loss is mainly linked to heat transferred from the atmosphere; however, over time, the ocean progressively becomes the most important contributor. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract A theory for the mean ice thickness and the Transpolar Drift in the Arctic Ocean is developed. Asymptotic expansions of the ice momentum and thickness equations are used to derive analytic expressions for the leading-order ice thickness and velocity fields subject to wind stress forcing and heat loss to the atmosphere. The theory is most appropriate for the eastern and central Arctic, but not for the region of the Beaufort Gyre subject to anticyclonic wind stress curl. The scale analysis reveals two distinct regimes: a thin ice regime in the eastern Arctic and a thick ice regime in the western Arctic. In the eastern Arctic, the ice drift is controlled by a balance between wind and ocean drag, while the ice thickness is controlled by heat loss to the atmosphere. In contrast, in the western Arctic, the ice thickness is determined by a balance between wind and internal ice stress, while the drift is indirectly controlled by heat loss to the atmosphere. The southward flow toward Fram Strait is forced by the across-wind gradient in ice thickness. The basic predictions for ice thickness, heat loss, ice volume, and ice export from the theory compare well with an idealized, coupled ocean–ice numerical model over a wide range of parameter space. The theory indicates that increasing atmospheric temperatures or wind speed result in a decrease in maximum ice thickness and ice volume. Increasing temperatures also result in a decrease in heat loss to the atmosphere and ice export through Fram Strait, while increasing winds drive increased heat loss and ice export. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract The Arctic Ocean is characterized by an ice-covered layer of cold and relatively fresh water above layers of warmer and saltier water. It is estimated that enough heat is stored in these deeper layers to melt all the Arctic sea ice many times over, but they are isolated from the surface by a stable halocline. Current vertical mixing rates across the Arctic Ocean halocline are small, due in part to sea ice reducing wind–ocean momentum transfer and damping internal waves. However, recent observational studies have argued that sea ice retreat results in enhanced mixing. This could create a positive feedback whereby increased vertical mixing due to sea ice retreat causes the previously isolated subsurface heat to melt more sea ice. Here, we use an idealized climate model to investigate the impacts of such a feedback. We find that an abrupt “tipping point” can occur under global warming, with an associated hysteresis window bounded by saddle-node bifurcations. We show that the presence and magnitude of the hysteresis are sensitive to the choice of model parameters, and the hysteresis occurs for only a limited range of parameters. During the critical transition at the bifurcation point, we find that only a small percentage of the heat stored in the deep layer is released, although this is still enough to lead to substantial sea ice melt. Furthermore, no clear relationship is apparent between this change in heat storage and the level of hysteresis when the parameters are varied. 
    more » « less