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Pathogen evolution is one of the least predictable components of disease emergence, particularly in nature. Here, building on principles established by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution, we develop a quantitative, spatially explicit framework for mapping the evolutionary risk of viral emergence. Driven by interest in diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we examine the global biogeography of bat-origin betacoronaviruses, and find that coevolutionary principles suggest geographies of risk that are distinct from the hotspots and coldspots of host richness. Further, our framework helps explain patterns like a unique pool of merbecoviruses in the Neotropics, a recently discovered lineage of divergent nobecoviruses in Madagascar, and—most importantly—hotspots of diversification in southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East that correspond to the site of previous zoonotic emergence events. Our framework may help identify hotspots of future risk that have also been previously overlooked, like West Africa and the Indian subcontinent, and may more broadly help researchers understand how host ecology shapes the evolution and diversity of pandemic threats.

Species functional traits can influence pathogen transmission processes, and consequently affect species' host status, pathogen diversity, and community‐level infection risk. We here investigated, for 143 European waterbird species, effects of functional traits on host status and pathogen diversity (subtype richness) for avian influenza virus at species level. We then explored the association between functional diversity and HPAI H5Nx occurrence at the community level for 2016/17 and 2021/22 epidemics in Europe. We found that both host status and subtype richness were shaped by several traits, such as diet guild and dispersal ability, and that the community‐weighted means of these traits were also correlated with community‐level risk of H5Nx occurrence. Moreover, functional divergence was negatively associated with H5Nx occurrence, indicating that functional diversity can reduce infection risk. Our findings highlight the value of integrating trait‐based ecology into the framework of diversity–disease relationship, and provide new insights for HPAI prediction and prevention.

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

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Bats are exceptional among mammals for their powered flight, extended lifespans, and robust immune systems and therefore have been of particular interest in comparative genomics. Using the Oxford Nanopore Technologies long-read platform, we sequenced the genomes of two bat species with key phylogenetic positions, the Jamaican fruit bat (Artibeus jamaicensis) and the Mesoamerican mustached bat (Pteronotus mesoamericanus), and carried out a comprehensive comparative genomic analysis with a diverse collection of bats and other mammals. The high-quality, long-read genome assemblies revealed a contraction of interferon (IFN)-α at the immunity-related type I IFN locus in bats, resulting in a shift in relative IFN-ω and IFN-α copy numbers. Contradicting previous hypotheses of constitutive expression of IFN-α being a feature of the bat immune system, three bat species lost all IFN-α genes. This shift to IFN-ω could contribute to the increased viral tolerance that has made bats a common reservoir for viruses that can be transmitted to humans. Antiviral genes stimulated by type I IFNs also showed evidence of rapid evolution, including a lineage-specific duplication of IFN-induced transmembrane genes and positive selection in IFIT2. In addition, 33 tumor suppressors and 6 DNA-repair genes showed signs of positive selection, perhaps contributing to increased longevity and reduced cancer rates in bats. The robust immune systems of bats rely on both bat-wide and lineage-specific evolution in the immune gene repertoire, suggesting diverse immune strategies. Our study provides new genomic resources for bats and sheds new light on the extraordinary molecular evolution in this critically important group of mammals.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 highlights a need for evidence-based strategies to monitor bat viruses. We performed a systematic review of coronavirus sampling (testing for RNA positivity) in bats globally. We identified 110 studies published between 2005 and 2020 that collectively reported positivity from 89,752 bat samples. We compiled 2,274 records of infection prevalence at the finest methodological, spatiotemporal and phylogenetic level of detail possible from public records into an open, static database named datacov, together with metadata on sampling and diagnostic methods. We found substantial heterogeneity in viral prevalence across studies, reflecting spatiotemporal variation in viral dynamics and methodological differences. Meta-analysis identified sample type and sampling design as the best predictors of prevalence, with virus detection maximized in rectal and faecal samples and by repeat sampling of the same site. Fewer than one in five studies collected and reported longitudinal data, and euthanasia did not improve virus detection. We show that bat sampling before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was concentrated in China, with research gaps in South Asia, the Americas and sub-Saharan Africa, and in subfamilies of phyllostomid bats. We propose that surveillance strategies should address these gaps to improve global health security and enable the origins of zoonotic coronaviruses to be identified.

The growing threat of vector-borne diseases, highlighted by recent epidemics, has prompted increased focus on the fundamental biology of vector-virus interactions. To this end, experiments are often the most reliable way to measure vector competence (the potential for arthropod vectors to transmit certain pathogens). Data from these experiments are critical to understand outbreak risk, but – despite having been collected and reported for a large range of vector-pathogen combinations – terminology is inconsistent, records are scattered across studies, and the accompanying publications often share data with insufficient detail for reuse or synthesis. Here, we present a minimum data and metadata standard for reporting the results of vector competence experiments. Our reporting checklist strikes a balance between completeness and labor-intensiveness, with the goal of making these important experimental data easier to find and reuse in the future, without much added effort for the scientists generating the data. To illustrate the standard, we provide an example that reproduces results from a study ofAedes aegyptivector competence for Zika virus.

Powassan virus (POWV) is an emerging tick-borne encephalitic virus in Lyme disease-endemic sites in North America. Due to range expansion and local intensification of blacklegged tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) populations in the northeastern and upper midwestern U.S., human encephalitis cases are increasingly being reported. A better understanding of the transmission cycle between POWV and ticks is required in order to better predict and understand their public health burden. Recent phylogeographic analyses of POWV have identified geographical structuring, with well-defined northeastern and midwestern clades of the lineage II subtype. The extent that geographic and genetically defined sublineages differ in their ability to infect and be transmitted by blacklegged ticks is unclear. Accordingly, we determined whether there are strain-dependent differences in the transmission of POWV to ticks at multiple life stages. Five recent, low-passage POWV isolates were used to measure aspects of vector competence, using viremic and artificial infection methods. Infection rates in experimental ticks remained consistent between all five isolates tested, resulting in a 12–20% infection rate and some differences in viral load. We confirm that these differences are likely not due to differences in host viremia. Our results demonstrate that blacklegged ticks are susceptible to, and capable of transmitting, all tested strains and suggest that the tick–virus association is stable across diverse viral genotypes.

Improved RNA virus understanding is critical to studying animal and plant health, and environmental processes. However, the continuous and rapid RNA virus evolution makes their identification and characterization challenging. While recent sequence-based advances have led to extensive RNA virus discovery, there is growing variation in how RNA viruses are identified, analyzed, characterized, and reported. To this end, an RdRp Summit was organized and a hybrid meeting took place in Valencia, Spain in May 2023 to convene leading experts with emphasis on early career researchers (ECRs) across diverse scientific communities. Here we synthesize key insights and recommendations and offer these as a first effort to establish a consensus framework for advancing RNA virus discovery. First, we need interoperability through standardized methodologies, data-sharing protocols, metadata provision and interdisciplinary collaborations and offer specific examples as starting points. Second, as an emergent field, we recognize the need to incorporate cutting-edge technologies and knowledge early and often to improve omic-based viral detection and annotation as novel capabilities reveal new biology. Third, we underscore the significance of ECRs in fostering international partnerships to promote inclusivity and equity in virus discovery efforts. The proposed consensus framework serves as a roadmap for the scientific community to collectively contribute to the tremendous challenge of unveiling the RNA virosphere.