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Abstract China has large, estimated potential for direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) but its deployment locations and impacts at the subnational scale remain unclear. This is largely because higher spatial resolution studies on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in China have focused mainly on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. This study uses a spatially detailed integrated energy-economy-climate model to evaluate DACCS for 31 provinces in China as the country pursues its goal of climate neutrality by 2060. We find that DACCS could expand China’s negative emissions capacity, particularly under sustainability-minded limits on bioenergy supply that are informed by bottom-up studies. But providing low-carbon electricity for multiple GtCO₂yr⁻¹DACCS may require over 600 GW of additional wind and solar capacity nationwide and comprise up to 30% of electricity demand in China’s northern provinces. Investment requirements for DACCS range from $330 to $530 billion by 2060 but could be repaid manyfold in the form of avoided mitigation costs, which DACCS deployment could reduce by up to $6 trillion over the same period. Enhanced efforts to lower residual CO₂emissions that must be offset with CDR under a net-zero paradigm reduce but do not eliminate the use of DACCS for mitigation. For decision-makers and the energy-economy models guiding them, our results highlight the value of expanding beyond the current reliance on biomass for negative emissions in China. 

Abstract To achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the United States may need to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors and/or shortfalls in near-term mitigation efforts. CDR can be delivered using many approaches with different requirements for land, water, geologic carbon storage capacity, energy, and other resources. The availability of these resources varies by region in the U.S. suggesting that CDR deployment will be uneven across the country. Using the global change analysis model for the United States (GCAM-USA), we modeled six classes of CDR and explored their potential using four scenarios: a scenario where all the CDR pathways are available (Full Portfolio), a scenario with restricted carbon capture and storage (Low CCS), a scenario where the availability of bio-based CDR options is limited (Low Bio), and a scenario with constraints on enhanced rock weathering (ERW) capabilities (Low ERW). We find that by employing a diverse set of CDR approaches, the U.S. could remove between 1 and 1.9 GtCO₂/yr by midcentury. In the Full Portfolio scenario, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) predominates, delivering approximately 50% of CO₂removal, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage contributing 25%, and ERW delivering 11.5%. Texas and the agricultural Midwest lead in CDR deployment due to their abundant agricultural land and geological storage availability. In the Low CCS scenario, reliance on DACCS decreases, easing pressure on energy systems but increasing pressure on the land. In all cases CDR deployment was found to drive important impacts on energy, land, or materials supply chains (to supply ERW, for example) and these effects were generally more pronounced when fewer CDR technologies were available. 

<bold>Abstract</bold> Net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets are central to current international efforts to stabilize global climate, and many of these plans rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to meet mid-century goals. CDR can be performed via nature-based approaches, such as afforestation, or engineered approaches, such as direct air capture. Both will have large impacts in the regions where they are sited. We used the Global Change Analysis Model for the United States to analyze how regional resources will influence and be influenced by CDR deployment in service of United States national net-zero targets. Our modeling suggests that CDR will be deployed extensively, but unevenly, across the country. A number of US states have the resources, such as geologic carbon storage capacity and agricultural land, needed to become net exporters of negative emissions. But this will require reallocation of resources, such as natural gas and electricity, and dramatically increase water and fertilizer use in many places. Modeling these kinds of regional or sub-national impacts associated with CDR, as intrinsically uncertain as it is at this time, is critical for understanding its true potential in meeting decarbonization commitments. 

Construction materials generate nearly one-third of global carbon emissions, yet conventional accounting captures only a fraction of this impact. Using EXIOBASE data spanning 25 years, we tracked emissions across construction supply chains for cement, steel, metals, and plastics. While global construction demand nearly tripled, regional patterns diverged significantly. The EU reduced emissions despite increased demand through renewable energy adoption and emissions trading, while China’s construction boom—driving most global growth—significantly increased domestic emissions. Manufacturing contributes most to embodied emissions compared to resource extraction and waste treatment. Increased reliance on offshore production undermines domestic emission control strategies, highlighting the need for expanded carbon border adjustment mechanisms. Without policies addressing full supply chain emissions, even aggressive climate initiatives will be compromised by carbon leakage, creating an emissions trajectory incompatible with global climate targets.