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Abstract AimEcological and anthropogenic factors shift the abundances of dominant and rare tree species within local forest communities, thus affecting species composition and ecosystem functioning. To inform forest and conservation management it is important to understand the drivers of dominance and rarity in local tree communities. We answer the following research questions: (1) What are the patterns of dominance and rarity in tree communities? (2) Which ecological and anthropogenic factors predict these patterns? And (3) what is the extinction risk of locally dominant and rare tree species? LocationGlobal. Time period1990–2017. Major taxa studiedTrees. MethodsWe used 1.2 million forest plots and quantified local tree dominance as the relative plot basal area of the single most dominant species and local rarity as the percentage of species that contribute together to the least 10% of plot basal area. We mapped global community dominance and rarity using machine learning models and evaluated the ecological and anthropogenic predictors with linear models. Extinction risk, for example threatened status, of geographically widespread dominant and rare species was evaluated. ResultsCommunity dominance and rarity show contrasting latitudinal trends, with boreal forests having high levels of dominance and tropical forests having high levels of rarity. Increasing annual precipitation reduces community dominance, probably because precipitation is related to an increase in tree density and richness. Additionally, stand age is positively related to community dominance, due to stem diameter increase of the most dominant species. Surprisingly, we find that locally dominant and rare species, which are geographically widespread in our data, have an equally high rate of elevated extinction due to declining populations through large‐scale land degradation. Main conclusionsBy linking patterns and predictors of community dominance and rarity to extinction risk, our results suggest that also widespread species should be considered in large‐scale management and conservation practices. 

Abstract AimSpecies occurrence data are valuable information that enables one to estimate geographical distributions, characterize niches and their evolution, and guide spatial conservation planning. Rapid increases in species occurrence data stem from increasing digitization and aggregation efforts, and citizen science initiatives. However, persistent quality issues in occurrence data can impact the accuracy of scientific findings, underscoring the importance of filtering erroneous occurrence records in biodiversity analyses. InnovationWe introduce an R package, occTest, that synthesizes a growing open‐source ecosystem of biodiversity cleaning workflows to prepare occurrence data for different modelling applications. It offers a structured set of algorithms to identify potential problems with species occurrence records by employing a hierarchical organization of multiple tests. The workflow has a hierarchical structure organized in testPhases(i.e. cleaning vs. testing)that encompass different testBlocksgrouping differenttestTypes(e.g.environmental outlier detection), which may use differenttestMethods(e.g.Rosner test, jacknife,etc.). Four differenttestBlockscharacterize potential problems in geographic, environmental, human influence and temporal dimensions. Filtering and plotting functions are incorporated to facilitate the interpretation of tests. We provide examples with different data sources, with default and user‐defined parameters. Compared to other available tools and workflows, occTest offers a comprehensive suite of integrated tests, and allows multiple methods associated with each test to explore consensus among data cleaning methods. It uniquely incorporates both coordinate accuracy analysis and environmental analysis of occurrence records. Furthermore, it provides a hierarchical structure to incorporate future tests yet to be developed. Main conclusionsoccTest will help users understand the quality and quantity of data available before the start of data analysis, while also enabling users to filter data using either predefined rules or custom‐built rules. As a result, occTest can better assess each record's appropriateness for its intended application. 

Abstract On June 6, 2023, the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine experienced a catastrophic breach that led to the loss of life and substantial economic values. Prior to the breach, the supporting structures downstream of the spillway had shown signs of being compromised. Here, we use multi-source satellite data, meteorological reanalysis, and dam design criteria to document the dam’s pre-failure condition. We find that anomalous operation of the Kakhovka Dam began in November 2022, following the destruction of a bridge segment, which led to persistent overtopping from late April 2023 up to the breach, contributing to the erosion of the spillway foundation. Moreover, our findings also highlight safety and risk-reduction measures pivotal in avoiding such scenarios. To help prevent future disasters, we advocate for greater transparency in the design parameters of key water structures to enable risk management, and conclude that remote sensing technology can help ensuring water infrastructure safety. 

Abstract Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure (when temperature exceeds realised species’ thermal limits) and opportunity (when temperature at a previously unsuitable site becomes suitable) for 21,696 marine species globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected to arise earlier and accumulate gradually, especially in temperate and polar regions. Thermal exposure increases later and occurs more abruptly, mainly in the tropics. Assemblages tend to show either high exposure or high opportunity, but seldom both. Strong emissions reductions reduce exposure around 100-fold whereas reductions in opportunities are halved. Globally, opportunities are projected to emerge faster than exposure until mid-century when exposure increases more rapidly under a high emissions scenario. Moreover, across emissions and dispersal scenarios, 76%-97% of opportunities are projected to persist until 2100. These results indicate thermal opportunities could be a major source of marine biodiversity change, especially in the near- and mid-term. Our work provides a framework for predicting where and when thermal changes will occur to guide monitoring efforts. 

Abstract Biologists increasingly rely on computer code to collect and analyze their data, reinforcing the importance of published code for transparency, reproducibility, training, and a basis for further work. Here, we conduct a literature review estimating temporal trends in code sharing in ecology and evolution publications since 2010, and test for an influence of code sharing on citation rate. We find that code is rarely published (only 6% of papers), with little improvement over time. We also found there may be incentives to publish code: Publications that share code have tended to be low‐impact initially, but accumulate citations faster, compensating for this deficit. Studies that additionally meet other Open Science criteria, open‐access publication, or data sharing, have still higher citation rates, with publications meeting all three criteria (code sharing, data sharing, and open access publication) tending to have the most citations and highest rate of citation accumulation. 

Abstract Trees are pivotal to global biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people, yet accelerating global changes threaten global tree diversity, making accurate species extinction risk assessments necessary. To identify species that require expert-based re-evaluation, we assess exposure to change in six anthropogenic threats over the last two decades for 32,090 tree species. We estimated that over half (54.2%) of the assessed species have been exposed to increasing threats. Only 8.7% of these species are considered threatened by the IUCN Red List, whereas they include more than half of the Data Deficient species (57.8%). These findings suggest a substantial underestimation of threats and associated extinction risk for tree species in current assessments. We also map hotspots of tree species exposed to rapidly changing threats around the world. Our data-driven approach can strengthen the efforts going into expert-based IUCN Red List assessments by facilitating prioritization among species for re-evaluation, allowing for more efficient conservation efforts. 

Abstract The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4–43% higher growth rates, 14–17% higher survival rates and 4–7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks. 

Abstract Forests play a critical role in stabilizing Earth’s climate. Establishing protected areas (PAs) represents one approach to forest conservation, but PAs were rarely created to mitigate climate change. The global impact of PAs on the carbon cycle has not previously been quantified due to a lack of accurate global-scale carbon stock maps. Here we used ~412 million lidar samples from NASA’s GEDI mission to estimate a total PA aboveground carbon (C) stock of 61.43 Gt (+/− 0.31), 26% of all mapped terrestrial woody C. Of this total, 9.65 + /− 0.88 Gt of additional carbon was attributed to PA status. These higher C stocks are primarily from avoided emissions from deforestation and degradation in PAs compared to unprotected forests. This total is roughly equivalent to one year of annual global fossil fuel emissions. These results underscore the importance of conservation of high biomass forests for avoiding carbon emissions and preserving future sequestration. 

Abstract Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species^1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies^3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases^5–7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions. 

Abstract. Forest fires, while destructive and dangerous, are important to the functioning and renewal of ecosystems. Over the past 2 decades, large-scale, severe forest fires have become more frequent globally, and the risk is expected to increase as fire weather and drought conditions intensify. To improve quantification of the intensity and extent of forest fire damage, we have developed a 30 m resolution global forest burn severity (GFBS) dataset of the degree of biomass consumed by fires from 2003 to 2016. To develop this dataset, we used the Global Fire Atlas product to determine when and where forest fires occurred during that period and then we overlaid the available Landsat surface reflectance products to obtain pre-fire and post-fire normalized burn ratios (NBRs) for each burned pixel, designating the difference between them as dNBR and the relative difference as RdNBR. We compared the GFBS dataset against the Canada Landsat Burned Severity (CanLaBS) product, showing better agreement than the existing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-based global burn severity dataset (MOdis burn SEVerity, MOSEV) in representing the distribution of forest burn severity over Canada. Using the in situ burn severity category data available for the 2013 wildfires in southeastern Australia, we demonstrated that GFBS could provide burn severity estimation with clearer differentiation between the high-severity and moderate-/low-severity classes, while such differentiation among the in situ burn severity classes is not captured in the MOSEV product. Using the CONUS-wide composite burn index (CBI) as a ground truth, we showed that dNBR from GFBS was more strongly correlated with CBI (r=0.63) than dNBR from MOSEV (r=0.28). RdNBR from GFBS also exhibited better agreement with CBI (r=0.56) than RdNBR from MOSEV (r=0.20). On a global scale, while the dNBR and RdNBR spatial patterns extracted by GFBS are similar to those of MOSEV, MOSEV tends to provide higher burn severity levels than GFBS. We attribute this difference to variations in reflectance values and the different spatial resolutions of the two satellites. The GFBS dataset provides a more precise and reliable assessment of burn severity than existing available datasets. These enhancements are crucial for understanding the ecological impacts of forest fires and for informing management and recovery efforts in affected regions worldwide. The GFBS dataset is freely accessible at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10037629 (He et al., 2023).