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In the modern ocean, the transformation of light surface waters to dense deep waters primarily occurs in the Atlantic basin rather than in the North Pacific or Southern Oceans. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations suggest that sinking can sometimes occur in the Pacific. We present a six-box model of overturning that combines insights from a number of previous studies. A key determinant of the overturning configuration in our model is whether the Antarctic Intermediate Waters are denser than the northern subpolar waters, something that depends on the magnitude and configuration of atmospheric freshwater transport. For the modern ocean, we find that although the interbasin atmospheric freshwater flux suppresses Pacific sinking, the poleward atmospheric freshwater flux out of the subtropics enhances it. When atmospheric temperatures are held fixed, North Pacific overturning can strengthen with either increases or decreases in the hydrological cycle, as well as under reversal of the interbasin freshwater flux. Tipping-point behavior, where small changes in the hydrological cycle may cause the dominant location of densification of light waters to switch between basins and the magnitude of overturning within a basin to exhibit large jumps, is seen in both transient and equilibrium states. This behavior is modulated by parameters such as the poorly constrained lateral diffusive mixing coefficient. If hydrological cycle amplitude is varied consistently with global temperature, northern polar amplification is necessary for the Atlantic overturning to collapse. Certain qualitative insights incorporated in the model can be validated using a fully coupled climate model. Significance StatementCurrently, the global overturning circulation involves the conversion of waters lighter than Antarctic Intermediate Water to deep waters denser than Antarctic Intermediate Water primarily in the North Atlantic, rather than in the North Pacific or Southern Oceans. Many different factors have been invoked to explain this configuration, with atmospheric freshwater transport, basin geometry, lateral mixing, and Southern Ocean winds playing major roles. This paper develops a simple theory that combines previous theories, presents the intriguing idea that alternate configurations might be possible, and identifies multiple possible tipping points between these states. 

The Lagrangian particle method is widely used to understand scalar tracer concentration fields in models of the atmosphere and oceans. Simulating virtual particles provides an alternative description of advection to the Eulerian representation in models and aids in identifying pathways, timescales, and connectivity. Atmospheric and oceanic models solve advection‐diffusion‐reaction equations to simulate tracers, in which only the advective component is captured by traditional Lagrangian approaches. In this work, we report a novel method that closes tracer budgets on Lagrangian trajectories in a manner consistent with Eulerian budgets in finite‐volume models. The scalar tracer concentrations on grid cell walls are derived from the model advection scheme and then interpolated inside grid boxes along streamlines. The divergence of the diffusive flux and reaction terms are interpolated based on velocity and tracer concentration, ensuring the tracer budget closes in terms of both trajectory and volume integrals. Compared to the Eulerian budget analysis, which considers a fixed volume, our method quantifies the tracer evolution within a volume that moves along with the flow. We demonstrate the method using a case study of Southern Ocean biogeochemistry. Another case study involves analyzing the heat budget of the 2011 Western Australian marine heat wave. The method bridges the gap between Eulerian budget and Lagrangian particle analyses by representing the advective processes with particle movements and interpolating the diffusive and reactive processes onto trajectories in a way consistent with the finite‐volume description. 

The upper ocean salinity in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic undergoes decadal fluctuations. A large fresh anomaly event occurred during 2012–2016. Using the ECCOv4r4 state estimate, we diagnose and compare mechanisms of this low salinity event with those of the 1990s fresh anomaly event. To avoid issues related to the choice of reference salinity values in the freshwater budget, we perform a salt mass content budget analysis of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. It shows that the recent low salt content anomaly occurs due to the circulation of anomalous salinity by mean currents entering the eastern subpolar basin from its western boundary via the North Atlantic Current. This is in contrast to the early 1990s, when the dominant mechanism governing the low salt content anomaly was the transport of the mean salinity field by anomalous currents. 

Arguably, the most conspicuous evidence for anthropogenic climate change lies in the Arctic Ocean. For example, the summer-time Arctic sea ice extent has declined over the last 40 years and the Arctic Ocean freshwater storage has increased over the last 30 years. Coupled climate models project that this extra freshwater will pass Greenland to enter the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) in the coming decades. Coupled climate models also project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the twenty-first century, associated with SPNA buoyancy increases. Yet, it remains unclear when the Arctic anthropogenic freshening signal will be detected in the SPNA, or what form the signal will take. Therefore, this article reviews and synthesizes the state of knowledge on Arctic Ocean and SPNA salinity variations and their causes. This article focuses on the export processes in data-constrained ocean circulation model hindcasts. One challenge is to quantify and understand the relative importance of different competing processes. This article also discusses the prospects to detect the emergence of Arctic anthropogenic freshening and the likely impacts on the AMOC. For this issue, the challenge is to distinguish anthropogenic signals from natural variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges’. 

Arctic Ocean gateway fluxes play a crucial role in linking the Arctic with the global ocean and affecting climate and marine ecosystems. We reviewed past studies on Arctic–Subarctic ocean linkages and examined their changes and driving mechanisms. Our review highlights that radical changes occurred in the inflows and outflows of the Arctic Ocean during the 2010s. Specifically, the Pacific inflow temperature in the Bering Strait and Atlantic inflow temperature in the Fram Strait hit record highs, while the Pacific inflow salinity in the Bering Strait and Arctic outflow salinity in the Davis and Fram straits hit record lows. Both the ocean heat convergence from lower latitudes to the Arctic and the hydrological cycle connecting the Arctic with Subarctic seas were stronger in 2000–2020 than in 1980–2000. CMIP6 models project a continuing increase in poleward ocean heat convergence in the 21st century, mainly due to warming of inflow waters. They also predict an increase in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean, with the largest increase in freshwater export expected to occur in the Fram Strait due to both increased ocean volume export and decreased salinity. Fram Strait sea ice volume export hit a record low in the 2010s and is projected to continue to decrease along with Arctic sea ice decline. We quantitatively attribute the variability of the volume, heat, and freshwater transports in the Arctic gateways to forcing within and outside the Arctic based on dedicated numerical simulations and emphasize the importance of both origins in driving the variability.