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Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species. 

Empirical nutrient models that describe lake nutrient, productivity, and water clarity relationships among lakes play a prominent role in limnology. Landscape-based regressions are also used to understand macroscale variability of lake nutrients, clarity, and productivity (hereafter referred to as nutrient-productivity). Predictions from both models are used to inform eutrophication management globally. To date, these two classes of models are generally conducted separately, which ignores the known dependencies among nutrient-productivity variables. We present a statistical model that integrates nutrient-productivity and landscape-based regressions—where lake nutrients, productivity, and clarity variables are modeled jointly. We fitted a joint nutrient-productivity model to over 7000 lakes with three nutrients (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, nitrate concentrations), chlorophyll a concentrations, and Secchi disk depth as response variables and landscape features as predictor variables. Because lakes in different regions respond to landscape features differently, we focused our analysis on two subregions with different dominant land uses, the agricultural Midwest and the forested Northeast U.S. Predictive performance was enhanced by modeling nutrientproductivity variables jointly. We also found strong evidence that nutrient-productivity variables were coupled, and that only nitrate may be decoupled from other nutrient-productivity variables in the forested region. We speculate that these regional differences may be related to differences in the strength of biogeochemical cycles and stoichiometric controls between these regions. Jointly modeling nutrient-productivity variables in lakes effectively integrates the two dominant approaches for studying lakes nutrient-productivity relationships and provides novel insight into macroscale patterns of the coupling of nutrients, chlorophyll, and water clarity in lakes.