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Understanding rates and patterns of change in physiological and climatic-niche variables is of urgent importance as many species are increasingly threatened by rising global temperatures. Here, we broadly test several fundamental hypotheses about physiological and niche evolution for the first time (with appropriate phylogenetic methods), using published data from 2059 vertebrate species. Our main results show that: (i) physiological tolerances to heat evolve more slowly than those to cold, (ii) the hottest climatic-niche temperatures change more slowly than the coldest climatic-niche temperatures, and (iii) physiological tolerances to heat and cold evolve more slowly than the corresponding climatic-niche variables. Physiological tolerances are significantly and positively related to the corresponding climatic-niche variables, but species often occur in climates outside the range of these tolerances. However, mismatches between climate and physiology do not necessarily mean that the climatic-niche data are misleading. Instead, some standard physiological variables used in vertebrates (i.e. critical thermal maxima and minima) may reflect when species are active (daily, seasonally) and their local-scale microhabitats (sun versus shade), rather than their large-scale climatic distributions.
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Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models
Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.
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- PAR ID:
- 10465374
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 120
- Issue:
- 15
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214199120
