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Abstract We use the Monte Carlo For AGN Channel Testing and Simulation (McFACTS;https://www.github.com/mcfacts/mcfacts) code to study the effect of active galactic nucleus (AGN) disk and nuclear star cluster (NSC) model parameters on predicted mass distributions for LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA compact binaries forming in AGN disks. The assumptions we vary include the black hole (BH) initial mass function (IMF), disk model, disk size, disk lifetime, NSC model, and the prograde-to-retrograde fraction of newly formed BH binaries. Broadly, we find that dense, moderately short-lived AGN disks are preferred for producing a (q, χ_eff) anticorrelation like those identified from existing gravitational-wave observations. Additionally, a BH IMF (IMF ∝M⁻²) is preferred over a more top-heavy IMF (M⁻¹). To produce results consistent with observations, the preferred fraction of prograde to retrograde is >90%. 

Abstract Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are a promising source of the binary black hole mergers observed in gravitational waves with LIGO-Virgo-Kagra (LVK). Constraining the AGN channel allows us to limit AGN parameter space (disk density, size, average lifetime) and nuclear star cluster (NSC) parameter space. Constraints on AGNs and NSCs have implications for Λ cold dark matter models of AGN feedback and models of AGN-driven supermassive black hole merger and growth. Here we present several qualitative studies of the AGN channel using new public, open-source, fast, reproducible codeMcFACTS(https://github.com/mcfacts/mcfacts): Monte Carlo for AGN channel Testing and Simulation. We demonstrate several important features for testing the AGN channel, including: (i) growth to large-mass intermediate-mass black hole is helped by the presence of migration traps or swamps, (ii) flat BH initial mass functions highlight hierarchical merger features in the mass spectrum, (iii) the (q, χ_eff) anticorrelation is a strong test of the bias to prograde mergers in the AGN channel, (iv) spheroid encounters can drive a fraction of mergers with high in-plane spin components (χ_p), (v) a high rate of extreme mass ratio inspirals are driven by an initial population of embedded retrograde BH, and (vi) both LVK and LISA are powerful probes of models of AGN disks and their embedded populations. 

Abstract The active galactic nucleus (AGN) channel for the formation of binary black hole (BBH) mergers has been previously studied as a potential formation channel for the merging compact binaries observed by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA (LVK) scientific collaboration. The first two papers in this series explored theMcFACTScode for the evolution of black hole orbits in AGN accretion disks for individual galaxy models and described the characteristics of predicted BBH populations in realizations of those models (such as the correlation between mass ratio and aligned spin). In this work, we explore the impact of the properties of AGN host galaxies and assume an AGN lifetime and cosmological model for the density of AGN in a universe like our own. By sampling from an inferred population of AGN, we marginalize over galaxy mass to predict a population of BBH mergers observable by modern ground-based gravitational-wave observatories. We find that for reasonable assumptions, AGN disk environments may account for massive BBH mergers such as GW190521 and GW190929_012149. We find that the majority of observable BBH mergers from our simulation are expected to originate in galaxies with a supermassive black hole between 10⁷M_⊙and 10^9.4M_⊙. We also find that if hierarchical mergers from AGN disks account for a substantial part of the LVK population, our current models require an AGN lifetime of 0.5–2.5 Myr. 

Abstract Over a hundred gravitational-wave (GW) detections and candidates have been reported from the first three observing runs of the Advanced LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) detectors. Among these, the most intriguing events are binary black hole mergers that result in a “lite” intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) of ∼10²M_⊙, such as GW170502 and GW190521. In this study, we investigate 11 GW candidates from LVK’s third observing run with total detector-frame masses in the lite IMBH range. Using the Bayesian inference algorithmRIFT, we systematically analyze these candidates with three state-of-the-art waveform models that incorporate higher harmonics, which are crucial for resolving lite IMBHs in LVK data. For each candidate, we infer the premerger and postmerger black hole masses in the source frame, along with black hole spin projections across all three models. Under the assumption that these are binary black hole mergers, our analysis finds that five have a postmerger lite IMBH with masses ranging from 110 to 350M_⊙with over 90% confidence interval. Additionally, we note that one of their premerger black holes is within the pair-instability supernova mass gap (60–120M_⊙), and two premerger black holes are above the mass gap. Furthermore, we report discrepancies among the three waveform models in intrinsic parameters, with at least three GW candidates showing deviations beyond accepted statistical limits. While the astrophysical certainty of these candidates cannot be established, our study provides a foundation to probe the lite IMBH population that emerge within the low-frequency noise spectrum of LVK detectors. 

Abstract We present the successful recovery of common-envelope ejection efficiency assumed in a simulated population of double white dwarf (DWD) binaries like those which may be observed by the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission. We simulate the formation of DWD binaries by using the COSMIC population synthesis code to sample binary formation conditions such as initial mass function, metallicity of star formation, initial orbital period, and initial eccentricity. These binaries are placed in the m12i synthetic Milky Way–like galaxy, and their signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for the LISA instrument is estimated, considering a Galactic gravitational-wave foreground informed by the population. Through the use of Fisher estimates, we construct a likelihood function for the measurement error of the LISA-bright DWD binaries (≥20 SNR,f_GW≥ 5 mHz), in their gravitational-wave frequency (f_GW) and chirp mass. By repeating this process for different assumptions of the common-envelope ejection efficiency, we apply Bayesian hierarchical inference to find the best match to an injected astrophysical assumption for a fiducial population model. We conclude that the impact of common-envelope ejection efficiency on the mass-transfer processes involved in DWD formation may be statistically relevant in the future observed LISA population, and that constraints on binary formation may be found by comparing simulated populations to a future observed population. 

Abstract LISA, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, will usher in a new era in gravitational-wave astronomy. As the first anticipated space-based gravitational-wave detector, it will expand our view to the millihertz gravitational-wave sky, where a spectacular variety of interesting new sources abound: from millions of ultra-compact binaries in our Galaxy, to mergers of massive black holes at cosmological distances; from the early inspirals of stellar-mass black holes that will ultimately venture into the ground-based detectors’ view to the death spiral of compact objects into massive black holes, and many sources in between. Central to realising LISA’s discovery potential are waveform models, the theoretical and phenomenological predictions of the pattern of gravitational waves that these sources emit. This White Paper is presented on behalf of the Waveform Working Group for the LISA Consortium. It provides a review of the current state of waveform models for LISA sources, and describes the significant challenges that must yet be overcome. 

Abstract The detection of orbital eccentricity for a binary black hole system via gravitational waves is a key signature to distinguish between the possible binary origins. The identification of eccentricity has been difficult so far due to the limited availability of eccentric gravitational waveforms over the full range of black hole masses and eccentricities. Here we evaluate the eccentricity of five black hole mergers detected by the LIGO and Virgo observatories using theTEOBResumS-DALI,TEOBResumS-GIOTTO, andTEOBResumSPmodels. This analysis studies eccentricities up to 0.6 at the reference frequency of 5 Hz and incorporates higher-order gravitational-wave modes critical to model emission from highly eccentric orbits. The binaries have been selected due to previous hints of eccentricity or due to their unusual mass and spin. While other studies found marginal evidence for eccentricity for some of these events, our analyses do not favor the incorporation of eccentricity compared to the quasi-circular case. While lacking the eccentric evidence of other analyses, we find our analyses marginally shifts the posterior in multiple parameters for several events when allowing eccentricity to be nonzero. 

Abstract We report the observation of gravitational waves from two binary black hole coalescences during the fourth observing run of the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA detector network, GW241011 and GW241110. The sources of these two signals are characterized by rapid and precisely measured primary spins, nonnegligible spin–orbit misalignment, and unequal mass ratios between their constituent black holes. These properties are characteristic of binaries in which the more massive object was itself formed from a previous binary black hole merger and suggest that the sources of GW241011 and GW241110 may have formed in dense stellar environments in which repeated mergers can take place. As the third-loudest gravitational-wave event published to date, with a median network signal-to-noise ratio of 36.0, GW241011 furthermore yields stringent constraints on the Kerr nature of black holes, the multipolar structure of gravitational-wave generation, and the existence of ultralight bosons within the mass range 10⁻¹³–10⁻¹²eV. 

Abstract On 2023 November 23, the two LIGO observatories both detected GW231123, a gravitational-wave signal consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses $137_{-18}^{+23}{M}_{\odot }$and $101_{-50}^{+22}{M}_{\odot }$(90% credible intervals), at a luminosity distance of 0.7–4.1 Gpc, a redshift of $0.40_{-0.25}^{+0.27}$, and with a network signal-to-noise ratio of ∼20.7. Both black holes exhibit high spins— $0.90_{-0.19}^{+0.10}$and $0.80_{-0.52}^{+0.20}$, respectively. A massive black hole remnant is supported by an independent ringdown analysis. Some properties of GW231123 are subject to large systematic uncertainties, as indicated by differences in the inferred parameters between signal models. The primary black hole lies within or above the theorized mass gap where black holes between 60–130M_⊙should be rare, due to pair-instability mechanisms, while the secondary spans the gap. The observation of GW231123 therefore suggests the formation of black holes from channels beyond standard stellar collapse and that intermediate-mass black holes of mass ∼200M_⊙form through gravitational-wave-driven mergers. 

Abstract We present the results of a search for gravitational-wave transients associated with core-collapse supernova SN 2023ixf, which was observed in the galaxy Messier 101 via optical emission on 2023 May 19, during the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA 15th Engineering Run. We define a five-day on-source window during which an accompanying gravitational-wave signal may have occurred. No gravitational waves have been identified in data when at least two gravitational-wave observatories were operating, which covered ∼14% of this five-day window. We report the search detection efficiency for various possible gravitational-wave emission models. Considering the distance to M101 (6.7 Mpc), we derive constraints on the gravitational-wave emission mechanism of core-collapse supernovae across a broad frequency spectrum, ranging from 50 Hz to 2 kHz, where we assume the gravitational-wave emission occurred when coincident data are available in the on-source window. Considering an ellipsoid model for a rotating proto-neutron star, our search is sensitive to gravitational-wave energy 1 × 10⁻⁴M_⊙c²and luminosity 2.6 × 10⁻⁴M_⊙c²s⁻¹for a source emitting at 82 Hz. These constraints are around an order of magnitude more stringent than those obtained so far with gravitational-wave data. The constraint on the ellipticity of the proto-neutron star that is formed is as low as 1.08, at frequencies above 1200 Hz, surpassing past results.