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Abstract This study explores the carbon stability in the Arctic permafrost following the sea‐level transgression since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The Arctic permafrost stores a significant amount of organic carbon sequestered as frozen particulate organic carbon, solid methane hydrate and free methane gas. Post‐LGM sea‐level transgression resulted in ocean water, which is up to 20°C warmer compared to the average annual air mass, inundating, and thawing the permafrost. This study develops a one‐dimensional multiphase flow, multicomponent transport numerical model and apply it to investigate the coupled thermal, hydraulic, microbial, and chemical processes occurring in the thawing subsea permafrost. Results show that microbial methane is produced and vented to the seawater immediately upon the flooding of the Arctic continental shelves. This microbial methane is generated by the biodegradation of the previously frozen organic carbon. The maximum seabed methane flux is predicted in the shallow water where the sediment has been warmed up, but the remaining amount of organic carbon is still high. It is less likely to cause seabed methane emission by methane hydrate dissociation. Such a situation only happens when there is a very shallow (∼200 m depth) intra‐permafrost methane hydrate, the occurrence of which is limited. This study provides insights into the limits of methane release from the ongoing flooding of the Arctic permafrost, which is critical to understand the role of the Arctic permafrost in the carbon cycle, ocean chemistry and climate change. 

This dataset are produced by a manuscript (Biodegradation of Ancient Organic Carbon Fuels Seabed Methane Emission at the Arctic Continental Shelves)  to be submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research - Global Biogeochemical Cycles.  I The file "MethaneEmission_Permafrost" contains the predicted  temperature, pressure, pore water salinity, ice stable zone, methane hydrate stable zone, ice saturation, methane hydrate saturation, free methane gas saturation, labile organic carbon content, stable organic carbon content, and methanogenesis rate from seafloor to 1200 m depth from 18,000 years before present to 2,000 years after present for 8 different simulation scenarios.  The file "Seabed_Methane_Flux" contains the predicted seabed methane emission rate from 18,000 years before present to 2,000 years after present for 8 different simulation scenarios.  Detailed information about the model could be found in the paper Biodegradation of Ancient Organic Carbon Fuels Seabed Methane Emission at the Arctic Continental Shelves.