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Abstract Data science skills (e.g., analyzing, modeling, and visualizing large data sets) are increasingly needed by undergraduates in the life sciences. However, a lack of both student and instructor confidence in data science skills presents a barrier to their inclusion in undergraduate curricula. To reduce this barrier, we developed four teaching modules in the Macrosystems EDDIE (for environmental data-driven inquiry and exploration) program to introduce undergraduate students and instructors to ecological forecasting, an emerging subdiscipline that integrates multiple data science skills. Ecological forecasting aims to improve natural resource management by providing future predictions of ecosystems with uncertainty. We assessed module efficacy with 596 students and 26 instructors over 3 years and found that module completion increased students’ confidence in their understanding of ecological forecasting and instructors’ likelihood to work with long-term, high-frequency sensor network data. Our modules constitute one of the first formalized data science curricula on ecological forecasting for undergraduates. 

Abstract Phytoplankton blooms create harmful toxins, scums, and taste and odor compounds and thus pose a major risk to drinking water safety. Climate and land use change are increasing the frequency and severity of blooms, motivating the development of new approaches for preemptive, rather than reactive, water management. While several real-time phytoplankton forecasts have been developed to date, none are both automated and quantify uncertainty in their predictions, which is critical for manager use. In response to this need, we outline a framework for developing the first automated, real-time lake phytoplankton forecasting system that quantifies uncertainty, thereby enabling managers to adapt operations and mitigate blooms. Implementation of this system calls for new, integrated ecosystem and statistical models; automated cyberinfrastructure; effective decision support tools; and training for forecasters and decision makers. We provide a research agenda for the creation of this system, as well as recommendations for developing real-time phytoplankton forecasts to support management. 

Abstract Despite the growing use of Aquatic Ecosystem Models for lake modeling, there is currently no widely applicable framework for their configuration, calibration, and evaluation. Calibration is generally based on direct data comparison of observed versus modeled state variables using standard statistical techniques, however, this approach may not give a complete picture of the model's ability to capture system‐scale behavior that is not easily perceivable in observations, but which may be important for resource management. The aim of this study is to compare the performance of “naïve” calibration and a “system‐inspired” calibration, an approach that augments the standard state‐based calibration with a range of system‐inspired metrics (e.g., thermocline depth, metalimnetic oxygen minima), to increase the coherence between the simulated and natural ecosystems. A coupled physical‐biogeochemical model was applied to a focal site to simulate two key state‐variables: water temperature and dissolved oxygen. The model was calibrated according to the new system‐inspired modeling convention, using formal calibration techniques. There was an improvement in the simulation using parameters optimized on the additional metrics, which helped to reduce uncertainty predicting aspects of the system relevant to reservoir management, such as the occurrence of the metalimnetic oxygen minima. Extending the use of system‐inspired metrics when calibrating models has the potential to improve model fidelity for capturing more complex ecosystem dynamics. 

Abstract Temperate reservoirs and lakes worldwide are experiencing decreases in ice cover, which will likely alter the net balance of gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (R) in these ecosystems. However, most metabolism studies to date have focused on summer dynamics, thereby excluding winter dynamics from annual metabolism budgets. To address this gap, we analyzed 6 years of year‐round high‐frequency dissolved oxygen data to estimate daily rates of net ecosystem production (NEP), GPP, and R in a eutrophic, dimictic reservoir that has intermittent ice cover. Over 6 years, the reservoir exhibited slight heterotrophy during both summer and winter. We found winter and summer metabolism rates to be similar: summer NEP had a median rate of −0.06 mg O₂L⁻¹ day⁻¹(range: −15.86 to 3.20 mg O₂L⁻¹ day⁻¹), while median winter NEP was −0.02 mg O₂L⁻¹ day⁻¹(range: −8.19 to 0.53 mg O₂L⁻¹ day⁻¹). Despite large differences in the duration of ice cover among years, there were minimal differences in NEP among winters. Overall, the inclusion of winter data had a limited effect on annual metabolism estimates in a eutrophic reservoir, likely due to short winter periods in this reservoir (ice durations 0–35 days), relative to higher‐latitude lakes. Our work reveals a smaller difference between winter and summer NEP than in lakes with continuous ice cover. Ultimately, our work underscores the importance of studying full‐year metabolism dynamics in a range of aquatic ecosystems to help anticipate the effects of declining ice cover across lakes worldwide. 

Depth profiles of total and soluble metals were sampled from 2014-2024 in three drinking-water reservoirs: Falling Creek Reservoir (FCR), Beaverdam Reservoir (BVR), and Carvins Cove Reservoir (CCR). FCR and BVR are located in Vinton, Virginia, USA and CCR is located in Roanoke, Virginia, USA. Only Fe and Mn were analyzed from 2014-2019. The full suite of metals (Li, Na, Mg, Al, Si, K, Ca, Fe, Mn, Cu, Sr, Ba) were analyzed from 2020-2024. All reservoirs are owned and operated by the Western Virginia Water Authority and are managed as drinking-water sources for the city of Roanoke, VA. The dataset includes metal samples that were collected along a depth profile taken at the deepest site of each reservoir near the dam. Additional samples were collected at a gauged weir located on the primary inflow tributary, as well as at a secondary tributary to FCR. A 2024 sampling campaign at FCR included outflow spillway surface water sampling. A 2022 sampling campaign at CCR included inflows and a partial depth profile at the deepest site. Sampling frequency in FCR and BVR in 2024 was approximately weekly during the summer and fall (May - October), approximately fortnightly during the spring (March - April), and approximately monthly during the winter (November - March). In 2022, sampling frequency at CCR was approximately fortnightly during summer and fall (May - October). 

We measured carbon dioxide and methane flux exchange with the atmosphere at the deepest site of Falling Creek Reservoir (Vinton, Virginia, USA) every 30 minutes from 04 April 2020 to 31 December 2024. Falling Creek Reservoir is a drinking water supply reservoir owned and managed by the Western Virginia Water Authority (WVWA) as a primary drinking water source. The dataset consists of micrometeorological and flux data collected using an eddy covariance system (LiCor Biosciences, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA) and analyzed with associated Eddy Pro software (Eddy Pro Version 7.0.6), including carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor. All analysis scripts are included for data processing and quality assurance/quality control following best practices. 

We monitored water quality in Carvins Cove Reservoir (Roanoke, Virginia, USA) with high-frequency (10-minute) sensors in 2020-2024. Carvins Cove Reservoir is owned and managed by the Western Virginia Water Authority as a primary drinking water source. This data package consists of datasets from two separate deployments. First, from July 2020 - August 2021, depth profiles of water temperature were measured on 1-meter intervals using HOBO temperature pendant loggers deployed from 0.1 m below the surface of the reservoir to 10 m depth, and also at 15 and 20 m depth. Additionally, water temperature was measured in the Sawmill Branch inflow at 0.5 m depth using HOBO temperature pendant loggers. Second, from 9 April 2021 - 31 December 2024, depth profiles of water temperature were measured on 1-meter intervals from 0.1 m below the surface of the reservoir to 11 m depth and additionally at 15 and 19 m. A YSI EXO2 sonde measured water temperature, conductivity, specific conductance, chlorophyll a, phycocyanin, total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, and fluorescent dissolved organic matter at ~1.5 m depth. A YSI EXO3 sonde measured water temperature, conductivity, specific conductance, total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, and fluorescent dissolved organic matter at 9 m depth, which corresponds to the depth of a water outtake valve. The thermistors, EXO3 sonde, and pressure sensor were deployed at stationary, fixed elevations (referred to as positions) deployed off of the dam near the water outtake valves. Due to variable water levels in the reservoir, the depths of these sensors varied over time. In contrast, the EXO2 was deployed on a buoy from 2021-2022 and remained at 1.5 m depth as the water level fluctuated. However, in 2023, the buoy disappeared in a storm, and after that the EOX2 was deployed at a stationary elevation as the water level fluctuated around the sensor. The EXO2 was redeployed on the buoy in 2024. At the monitoring site, the reservoir is approximately 19 m deep (reservoir maximum depth is 23 m). 

Depth profiles of fluorescence-based phytoplankton biomass were sampled using a bbe Moldaenke FluoroProbe (Schwentinental, Germany) during 2014 to 2024 in five drinking water reservoirs in southwestern Virginia, USA. These reservoirs are: Beaverdam Reservoir (Vinton, Virginia), Carvins Cove Reservoir (Roanoke, Virginia), Falling Creek Reservoir (Vinton, Virginia), Gatewood Reservoir (Pulaski, Virginia), and Spring Hollow Reservoir (Salem, Virginia). Beaverdam, Carvins Cove, Falling Creek, and Spring Hollow Reservoirs are owned and operated by the Western Virginia Water Authority as primary or secondary drinking water sources for Roanoke, Virginia, and Gatewood Reservoir is a drinking water source for the town of Pulaski, Virginia. The dataset consists of depth profiles of fluorescence-based phytoplankton biomass measured at the deepest site of each reservoir adjacent to the dam, except in Falling Creek Reservoir, where depth profiles were also taken at four upstream sites ranging from the riverine to the lacustrine zone during 2016-2019 and 2024. Casts were taken approximately weekly from May-October and monthly from November-April. Casts were collected at Beaverdam and Falling Creek Reservoirs during all years (2014-2024); casts were collected at Carvins Cove Reservoir during 2014-2016 and 2018-2023; casts were collected at Spring Hollow Reservoir during 2014-2016 and 2019; and casts were collected at Gatewood Reservoir in 2015-2016. 

Diffusive fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide were measured using an Ultraportable Greenhouse Gas Analyzer (UGGA) at the surface of Falling Creek Reservoir (FCR) and Beaverdam Reservoir (BVR; Vinton, Virginia, USA). FCR and BVR are owned and operated by the Western Virginia Water Authority as drinking water sources for Roanoke, Virginia. The dataset consists of calculated diffusive fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide measured at the deepest site of the reservoir adjacent to the dam (2018–2024) and additional reservoir upstream sites in FCR (2018, 2023) and BVR (2022). Measurements were collected approximately fortnightly in FCR throughout the summer stratified periods of 2018–2021 and 2023-2024, while measurements from BVR were only taken in 2018 and 2022-2024. 

We monitored water level and water quality in Beaverdam Reservoir (Vinton, Virginia, USA, 37.31288, -79.8159) with visual observations and high-frequency (10- to 15-minute resolution) sensors in 2009-2024. All variables were measured at the deepest site of the reservoir adjacent to the dam. Beaverdam Reservoir is owned and managed by the Western Virginia Water Authority as a secondary drinking water source for Roanoke, Virginia. This data package is comprised of three datasets: 1) bvre-waterlevel_2009_2024.csv, 2) bvre-sensorstring_2016_2020.csv, and 3) bvre-waterquality_2020_2024.csv. 1) bvre-waterlevel_2009_2024.csv contains water level observations of the staff gauge at a platform near the reservoir's dam by both the Western Virginia Water Authority and the Virginia Tech Reservoir Group LTREB field crew. This dataset spans 2009 to 2024, with data collection still ongoing. 2) bvre-sensorstring_2016_2020.csv consists of a water temperature profile at ~1-meter intervals from the surface of the reservoir to 10.5 m below the water, complemented by intermittent data collected by a dissolved oxygen logger deployed at 5 m or 10 m. A sonde measuring water temperature, conductivity, specific conductance, chlorophyll a, phycocyanin, total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, fluorescent dissolved organic matter, and turbidity was additionally deployed at ~1.5 m depth. This dataset spans 2016 to 2020, with no additional data collection beyond the last observation. The third dataset is bvre-waterquality_2020_2024.csv, with data collection still ongoing. This dataset contains: a) a temperature string with 13 temperature sensors deployed ~1 m apart from the surface to 0.5 m above the sediments of the reservoir; b) two dissolved oxygen sensors, one in the middle of the string and one sensor above the sediments; and c) a pressure sensor just above the sediments. The same sonde from the first 2016-2020 dataset is also included in this 2020-2024 dataset, still deployed at ~1.5 m below the surface. The sensors on the temperature string (thermistors, dissolved oxygen sensors, and pressure sensor) are permanently fixed to the platform and do not change with the water level. In the methods, we describe how to add a depth measurement to each observation.