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Abstract Biogeographic regions reflect the organization of biotas over long evolutionary timescales but face alterations from recent anthropogenic climate change. Here, we model species distributions for 189,269 vascular plant species of the world under present and future climates and use this data to generate biogeographic regions based on phylogenetic dissimilarity. Our analysis reveals declines in phylogenetic beta diversity for years 2040 to 2100, leading to a future homogenization of biogeographic regions. While some biogeographic boundaries will persist, climate change will alter boundaries separating biogeographic realms. Such boundary alterations will be determined by altitude variation, heterogeneity of temperature seasonality, and past climate velocity. Our findings suggest that human activities may now surpass the geological forces that shaped floristic regions over millions of years, calling for the mitigation of climate impacts to meet international biodiversity targets. 

Abstract Although climate change projections indicate significant threats to terrestrial biodiversity, the effects are much more profound and striking in the marine environment. Here we explore how different facets of locally distinctiveα- andβ-diversity (changes in spatial composition) of seagrasses will respond to future climate change scenarios across the globe and compare their coverage with the existing network of marine protected areas. By using species distribution modelling and a dated phylogeny, we predict widespread reductions in species’ range sizes that will result in increases in seagrass weighted and phylogenetic endemism. These projected increases of endemism will result in divergent shifts in the spatial composition ofβ-diversity leading to differentiation in some areas and the homogenization of seagrass communities in other regions. Regardless of the climate scenario, the potential hotspots of these projected shifts in seagrassα- andβ-diversity are predicted to occur outside the current network of marine protected areas, providing new priority areas for future conservation planning that incorporate seagrasses. Our findings report responses of species to future climate for a group that is currently under represented in climate change assessments yet crucial in maintaining marine food chains and providing habitat for a wide range of marine biodiversity. 

Abstract Following the failure to fully achieve any of the 20 Aichi biodiversity targets, the future of biodiversity rests in the balance. The Convention on Biological Diversity's Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) presents the opportunity to preserve nature's contributions to people (NCPs) for current and future generations by conserving biodiversity and averting extinctions. There is a need to safeguard the tree of life—the unique and shared evolutionary history of life on Earth—to maintain the benefits it bestows into the future. Two indicators have been adopted within the GBF to monitor progress toward safeguarding the tree of life: the phylogenetic diversity (PD) indicator and the evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) index. We applied both to the world's mammals, birds, and cycads to show their utility at the global and national scale. The PD indicator can be used to monitor the overall conservation status of large parts of the evolutionary tree of life, a measure of biodiversity's capacity to maintain NCPs for future generations. The EDGE index is used to monitor the performance of efforts to conserve the most distinctive species. The risk to PD of birds, cycads, and mammals increased, and mammals exhibited the greatest relative increase in threatened PD over time. These trends appeared robust to the choice of extinction risk weighting. EDGE species had predominantly worsening extinction risk. A greater proportion of EDGE mammals (12%) had increased extinction risk compared with threatened mammals in general (7%). By strengthening commitments to safeguarding the tree of life, biodiversity loss can be reduced and thus nature's capacity to provide benefits to humanity now and in the future can be preserved. 

Butterflies represent a diverse group of insects, playing key ecosystem roles such as pollination and their larval form engage in herbivory. Despite their importance, comprehensive global distribution data for butterfly species are lacking. This lack of comprehensive global data has hindered many large‐scale questions in ecology, evolutionary biology, and conservation at the regional and global scales. Here, I use an integrative workflow that combines occurrence records, alpha hull polygons, species' dispersal capacity, and natural habitat and environmental variables within a framework of species distribution models to generate species‐level native distributions for butterflies at a global scale in the contemporary period. The database releases native range maps for 10,372 extant species of butterflies at a spatial grain resolution of 5 arcmin (~10 km). This database has the potential to allow unprecedented large‐scale analyses in ecology, biogeography, and conservation of butterflies. The maps are available in the WGS84 coordinate reference system (EPSG:4326 code) and stored as vector polygons in the GEOPACKAGE format for maximum compression, allowing easy data manipulation using a standard computer. I additionally provide each species' spatial raster. All maps and R scripts are open access and available for download in Dryad and Zenodo, respectively, and are guided by FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data principles. By making these data available to the scientific community, I aim to advance the sharing of biological data to stimulate more comprehensive research in ecology, biogeography, and conservation of butterflies. 

Vascular plants are diverse and a major component of terrestrial ecosystems, yet their geographic distributions remain incomplete. Here, I present a global database of vascular plant distributions by integrating species distribution models calibrated to species’ dispersal ability and natural habitats to predict native range maps for 201,681 vascular plant species into unsurveyed areas. Using these maps, I uncover unique patterns of native vascular plant diversity, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity revealing hotspots in underdocumented biodiversity-rich regions. These hotspots, based on detailed species-level maps, show a pronounced latitudinal gradient, strongly supporting the theory of increasing diversity toward the equator. I trained random forest models to extrapolate diversity patterns under unbiased global sampling and identify overlaps with modeled estimations but unveiled cryptic hotspots that were not captured by modeled estimations. Only 29% to 36% of extrapolated plant hotspots are inside protected areas, leaving more than 60% outside and vulnerable. However, the unprotected hotspots harbor species with unique attributes that make them good candidates for conservation prioritization.